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jelly

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
33,841
They say it's today but could be next week, January. God knows how that works but they'll do something to kick the can unless Boris actually takes the no deal, staged, photo op or deal, staged photo op.
 

Uzzy

Gabe’s little helper
Member
Oct 25, 2017
27,091
Hull, UK
So can anyone who is in the know break down the NI announcement. How is this different from the arrangements that would have existed based on the withdrawl agreement.

Basically, has the government actually benefited from it's "we are happy to break international law" play?

Not from what I've seen. They've basically accepted what was always required for the withdrawal agreement to work, and there were always practicalities to work out to implement it.

A commitment to keep to EU food safety standards, after months of saying we weren't going to commit, that's a win for the EU.
 

Eoin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,103
So can anyone who is in the know break down the NI announcement. How is this different from the arrangements that would have existed based on the withdrawl agreement.

Basically, has the government actually benefited from it's "we are happy to break international law" play?
The arrangements talked about by Connolly in that series of Tweets are in line with the Northern Ireland protocol of the withdrawal agreement. That protocol gives a pretty wide set of creative powers to the Joint Committee to make decisions about how EU <-> NI and NI <-> GB trade works, and what regulations can be derogated under what conditions.

The bills that break international law did not cause this to happen and are more likely a threat to this agreement.
 

Unclebenny

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,766
Not from what I've seen. They've basically accepted what was always required for the withdrawal agreement to work, and there were always practicalities to work out to implement it.

A commitment to keep to EU food safety standards, after months of saying we weren't going to commit, that's a win for the EU.

The arrangements talked about by Connolly in that series of Tweets are in line with the Northern Ireland protocol of the withdrawal agreement. That protocol gives a pretty wide set of creative powers to the Joint Committee to make decisions about how EU <-> NI and NI <-> GB trade works, and what regulations can be derogated under what conditions.

The bills that break international law did not cause this to happen and are more likely a threat to this agreement.

Thanks very much both!

I kind of assumed as much but I actually had no idea on any of the details of the UK/ NI border and how it was planned to work or if they had even got that far. That crazy isn't it. There is going to be a hard border right down the middle of our country and I had barely the faintest idea of how it was supposed to work and how it was going to be implemented.
 

Warszawa

Member
Sep 30, 2018
334
That blustering blonde bastard better not releases a new press release tonight saying how after some tough last minute negotiations we've managed to cinch the deal exactly how we wanted.

He's absolutely playing his base with this last minute 'dash' to Brussells.
 

jelly

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
33,841
I wonder what Boris will be having for dinner.

Spotted Dick.

Considering what he said there, he is either going to cave, EU will word it like they compromised and come home saying he got a deal like big man Boris sorting it over dinner with his charm, puke or he comes back saying the EU wouldn't budge and told them were to stick it, BoJo won't bow to EU, we are free, the papers will say. Lastly, talks continue into January, yay......

This is going to be so shit.
 

MrMysterio

Member
Oct 25, 2017
701
Haven't had the chance to engage with this as thoroughly over the last days, where are we at Deal VS No Deal chances?

20:80? 80:20?
 

Unclebenny

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,766
I believe both sides have said that there won't be a deal at the end of tonight (even though the I think Barnier def said this was the latest they could leave it).

I assume it is going basically be do we continue negotiations, or don't we. That's almost effectively the same thing at this point in the process though.
 

Jokerman

Member
May 16, 2020
6,932
That blustering blonde bastard better not releases a new press release tonight saying how after some tough last minute negotiations we've managed to cinch the deal exactly how we wanted.

He's absolutely playing his base with this last minute 'dash' to Brussells.

I honestly don't care at this point. Give us a deal with as many compromises as possible.
 

Deleted member 21431

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
596
It's pretty much no deal now. I always felt that we're all in (my preference) or all out (no deal). From what's being said by Boris, no deal it is.

If Brexit was about UK parliament making UK laws and no-one else (and note the if, I'm not convinced that's what the Leave majority was about), then you could not have a scenario where if the EU passes a new law, then Britain has no choice but to do so as well, or have tariffs imposed, be fined etc That's not independence, that's not sovereignty. The UK electorate would have no say in what environmental, food safety or employment laws are passed - the EU decides, the UK has to abide. I believe the UK has already said we wouldn't regress on the existing laws in these areas.

No deal will hit the economy, but the negotiations were always about the economy/market access vs sovereignty and the electorate has voted twice now for the later (first in the referendum, then in the General election) and this is what they must get.

In 5 years time, we'll either be taking about rejoining or will have decided that we're happy with (what will be by that point) the status quo.I am guessing the later.
 

suedester

Member
Oct 25, 2017
815
It's pretty much no deal now. I always felt that we're all in (my preference) or all out (no deal). From what's being said by Boris, no deal it is.

If Brexit was about UK parliament making UK laws and no-one else (and note the if, I'm not convinced that's what the Leave majority was about), then you could not have a scenario where if the EU passes a new law, then Britain has no choice but to do so as well, or have tariffs imposed, be fined etc That's not independence, that's not sovereignty. The UK electorate would have no say in what environmental, food safety or employment laws are passed - the EU decides, the UK has to abide. I believe the UK has already said we wouldn't regress on the existing laws in these areas.

No deal will hit the economy, but the negotiations were always about the economy/market access vs sovereignty and the electorate has voted twice now for the later (first in the referendum, then in the General election) and this is what they must get.

In 5 years time, we'll either be taking about rejoining or will have decided that we're happy with (what will be by that point) the status quo.I am guessing the later.
I totally agree. Just don't see how we can let the EU impose any changes to its laws on us, the UK would essentially be a vassal state. Looking like a no deal to me. It's going to be messy at the beginning of 2021.
 

Joni

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,508
No deal will hit the economy, but the negotiations were always about the economy/market access vs sovereignty and the electorate has voted twice now for the later (first in the referendum, then in the General election) and this is what they must get.
I do not believe the UK electorate was informed of this. They were told their economy would be better.
 

Psychotext

Member
Oct 30, 2017
16,686
No deal will hit the economy, but the negotiations were always about the economy/market access vs sovereignty and the electorate has voted twice now for the later (first in the referendum, then in the General election) and this is what they must get.
More people voted for parties that supported a second referendum than voted for parties that didn't.

Just because our electoral system is a joke, doesn't mean people wanted a no-deal Brexit.
 

Deleted member 21431

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
596
I do not believe the UK electorate was informed of this. They were told their economy would be better.
They voted to "take back control", now you might disagree with that (as do I) and might debate what that phrase really meant, but they chose this over the very clear warnings over the impact that leaving the EU would have on the economy.
 

Joni

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,508
They voted to "take back control", now you might disagree with that (as do I) and might debate what that phrase really meant, but they chose this over the very clear warnings over the impact that leaving the EU would have on the economy.
They also voted to give 350 million a week to the nhs and for better trade deals. The latter they could get at the expense of sovereignty.
 

eonden

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,078
They didnt vote to "take back control", they vote for a collection of bs things that had different paths. For fucks sakes, even Farange was saying we should get a Norway style deal when leaving back during the referendum. It was just after Brexit winning that because nobody of them (except the madmen of harsh Brexit) had any clear idea of what they wanted, they ended up daring each other and pushing further and further until the solution was either no deal or total capitulation.

People voted for Brexit. But Brexit meant nothing but "leaving the EU", nothing else. People called "project fear" to the economic collapse, and clearly backed all other options over No Deal until the tory infighting made it so that "no deal is better than a bad deal".
People voted for tougher immigration controls (which they could get even inside the EU). People voted for being able to make better connections with the Commonwealth (which doesnt require harsh Brexit). No deal brexit is just the endgoal of the tories playing their infighting pushing a fringe solution as the only possible solution.
 

PJV3

Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,676
London
I totally agree. Just don't see how we can let the EU impose any changes to its laws on us, the UK would essentially be a vassal state. Looking like a no deal to me. It's going to be messy at the beginning of 2021.

There's rumblings from the EU side that it's the UK over stating the position, that it's about planning ahead for divergence from the current unified and shared laws and regulations. Both sides could respond by either changing regulations to something similar or imposing tariffs if it's something that don't want to do or it unfairly undercuts the other.

Vassal state seems a tad over the top for actually thinking ahead.
 

KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,984


Man, this is so ridiculous. There are three weeks left out of which 1 is like non-existent. How are companies supposed to prepare for anything that's not decided yet? Emergency measures in their Christmas zoom calls?

This is the same stupid game again and again. Just go for no deal already and stop this craziness. It's clear that UK doesn't want a deal.
 

FliX

Master of the Reality Stone
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
9,865
Metro Detroit
I cannot remember where, but I heard an interview with the chief negotiator that worked for Blair on the Good Friday agreement, they seemed confident that this is all bluster and there will be a deal... 🤞🏻
 

jelly

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
33,841
The EU isn't going to sign a deal that leaves them at a disadvantage and the single market wide open to the UK with a leg up and the UK isn't going to sign a deal that doesn't give them a leg up while they eat cake.

It's kinda always been that way.

Yeah, no deal is going to make serious bank and power for the rich, it's whether Boris and his chums will light that match, I think they might because they've already lined it up but are pushing the EU to cave which seems unlikely.

So, it was Wednesday, now it's Sunday, lol. Be January soon.
 

DarthMasta

Member
Feb 17, 2018
3,912
From the very start with the way things went, all the promises of what they were going to do without discussing how, a no deal was always more probable than most people realized.

Also helps that both sides have differing opinions on who will get hurt the most on this, so, everyone can say that no deal is better than a bad deal, and if no deal comes, we'll find out who was right.
 

ryodi

#TeamThierry
Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,352


Johnson is going to get No Deal and has been LARPing as Churchill pretending to negotiate, January is going to be an utter shitshow the Brexiters will blame on the EU.
 
OP
OP
Xando

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,290
Man, this is so ridiculous. There are three weeks left out of which 1 is like non-existent. How are companies supposed to prepare for anything that's not decided yet? Emergency measures in their Christmas zoom calls?

This is the same stupid game again and again. Just go for no deal already and stop this craziness. It's clear that UK doesn't want a deal.
Well i can only speak for our clients but everyone is and has been working under the assumption of no deal for the past 3 months. If it doesn't happen fine but if it does better safe than sorry.
 

jelly

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
33,841
If it's no deal do you think the EU and UK would come to an agreement to not do it January 1st, like a buffer period to prepare, I know work has been done but UK in particular are caught with their pants down.
 

gerg

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,343
If it's no deal do you think the EU and UK would come to an agreement to not do it January 1st, like a buffer period to prepare, I know work has been done but UK in particular are caught with their pants down.

This is the buffer period to prepare. The UK government has had six months (since it removed the possibility of an extension to the transition period) to properly brief businesses on what will change under a no-deal scenario.

The only reassurance is that any chaos will be relatively short-lived.
 
OP
OP
Xando

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,290
If it's no deal do you think the EU and UK would come to an agreement to not do it January 1st, like a buffer period to prepare, I know work has been done but UK in particular are caught with their pants down.
Assumption in EU capitals is to get it over with and a lot of countries expect the UK to walk back and sign a deal early next year.

UK had 4 years to prepare what good is gonna make another 3 months.

The only way i could see an extension is if they agree to a deal in principle but need more time to implement
 

Joni

Member
Oct 27, 2017
19,508
I expect European countries to start showing they have been working on no deal preparations for a while.
 

DarthSontin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,032
Pennsylvania
How strong will the knock-on effects of No-Deal Brexit be felt on the larger global economy? Like, will it tank the American stock markets as well, or has that already been priced in?