I still think Johnson's angling for a deal, actually- he's flying out to Brussels himself over the next day or two to have face-to-face negotiations with von der Leyen over the summaries, which is the exact thing he'd do if he were looking to capitulate and proclaim himself a great negotiator for sealing the deal. If he didn't want one, he could stay home and let the clock run down.
It's certainly not a done deal (I'd give maybe a 30% chance of a deal being struck now), but I can see the playbook.