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OP
OP
There is nothing to negotiate on the 4 freedoms.
UK decided it doesn't want to be part of the single market so it won't have the benefits of the 4 freedoms.
Tariff free doesnt mean freedom of movement for goods. The red tape of bureacracy for goods will exist, they just wont have an extra "taxation" on it (Edit: and UK goods probably wont count for "rule of origin" under EU rules which will fuck up a ton of things in key industries... such as cars). Think of it about the USA - Canada - Mexico trade deal where there are still borders to check up goods even if they are "tariff" free.
This. EU has been pretty clear the 4 freedoms are a package that needs to be together. You cannot have freedom of goods and services without freedom of people.
Ah, okay got it. Confused there for a sec. Thought that tariff free access meant free movement of goods.
"The good news is that we have found a way forward on most issues," she said, adding that she and EU negotiator Michel Barnier can now see a "narrow path to an agreement". "But this is now a case of us being so close, and yet being so far away from each other, because two issues still remain outstanding, you know them: a level playing field and the fisheries. "
'We have found a way forward': Ursula von der Leyen says path to a Brexit agreement is in sight
The European Commission president addressed the European Parliament this morning.www.thejournal.ie
Potentially this could be eased by the fact a lot of haulage companies are refusing to come to Britain now. So that might ease some of the congestion.
Then the problem is, a lot of the stuff we need importing is sat in it's country of origin, not on our shelves, so the result may be the same.
Basically, we don't know exactly how bad this will get, only that it will be a mess for the first month or two at least.
(I wrote a big post detailing some of the problems quite a few pages back).
It's essentially between being fucked and very, very fucked in the short-term. A deal is infinitely preferable but it's still going to be a shitshow.
Thanks for all the responses. It does beg the question why not more has been done to prepare for the additional customs bureaucracy? It sounds like the difference between a deal and no deal is whether you have to pay a tariff on top of all the added paper work.
I know the answer to my question above becomes abundantly clear by looking at the muppets in charge, but i just cant internalize the level of incompetence
I know the answer to my question above becomes abundantly clear by looking at the muppets in charge, but i just cant internalize the level of incompetence
LOL, Dover get's 33k , what are they supposed to build/buy with that?
A set of brexit themed traffic cones to help manage the congestion?
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How many lanes do you think can be built with thirty three thousand pounds? They asked for thirty three million pounds.... 😂
I'm interested to see if the deal mentions Northern Ireland at all. Since NI is within the EU customs territory according to the withdrawal agreement, that means that by the level playing field managed divergence rules, if the UK did diverge and tariffs were needed, they would also need to be applied between NI and GB (i.e. within the UK).
Who was it that said they hadn't quite grasped the magnitude of trade that goes through Dover/Calais?
I mean, they have done some work, the problem is there was never enough time to implement new systems, intergrate new software and hardware and hire and train thousands of new customs operators in the time frame available.
The time frame that existed at the insistence of the UK government.
Potentially there was never any time frame that wouldn't have resulted in some delays at the border, as those operating it can't get the required experience until we left. Still, they could be in a better position than they are now.
It's funny how they shout about taking back control, borders etc. yet they don't actually fund them properly. You could say it's all bollocks and fear mongering to get people to vote for them....
I'm sure if the shit hits the fan, they'll spare no expense giving private companies like Serco, G4S etc. billions of pounds to cover for their lack of preparation instead of scaling up public bodies who know what their doing for way cheaper, see Covid response as a prime example.
I'm sure if the shit hits the fan, they'll spare no expense giving private companies like Serco, G4S etc. billions of pounds to cover for their lack of preparation instead of scaling up public bodies who know what their doing for way cheaper, see Covid response as a prime example.
This plus the fact that the government has deliberately and consistently avoided doing anything other than the most perfunctory impact assessment with regards to any kind of Brexit. Which is having compounding effects now, as because ports can't say with any certainty how Brexit will affect demand, the government is using it as an excuse to withhold funding.
It's crazy. Even without impact assessments, it should be obvious that erecting and maintaining a hard border requires large amounts of time and money. The government looking to do it on the cheap literally a couple of weeks before it needs to be in effect is just mind-bogglingly inept. But hey, if Covid has shown us anything, it's that a desperate crisis is an ideal opportunity for the government to avoid the usual tendering rules and quietly give billions of pounds worth of lucrative rush contracts to their mates.
I've come back to a particular tweet, which sums up this government and it's attitude to everything it engages with. It's from Peter foster, Times journalist, who has done excellent work over Brexit and covid.
The whole thread is worth reading, about how the government took what should have been a, not necessarily easy, but not too hard task of quickly increasing ventilator capacity and bungled it so badly the could have very easily killed people.
The key section for me is this:
Brexit has poisoned all thought for this particular group of politicians, who have convinced themselves that basic business acumen is a complete replacement for expertise and experience. That everyone else is basically doing what they are, coasting along, making it up as they go along, so why shouldn't they try their hand at international borders/international trade discussions/manufacturing venitlators etc etc.
In short, a govt run using the Clarkson Principle.
"How hard can it be?"
Yes, the added bureaucracy was always going to be there and they really should have prepared better for it. Remember though that Brexit started off with the misbegotten idea that the UK could stay within the single market and also sign trade deals with other countries and also drop whichever of the four freedoms that they liked. It wasn't really until negotiations began that people like David Davis accepted the reality that nothing like that had any chance of ever happening, so that by itself wasted a full year.
Any deal probably will mention Northern Ireland (or at least the Northern Ireland protocol) just to make sure that it's touched on, but it wouldn't really need to. The situation there is covered well enough by the Northern Ireland protocol that any arrangements as part of an EU-UK trade deal should not require any agreement that's additional to the Northern Ireland protocol. As you say, UK divergence that resulted in tariffs being added would indeed mean that the UK would have to levy the same tariffs on GB -> NI trade. Companies paying those tariffs should be able to get them rebated by HMRC in the UK if they can prove that the goods never ended the EU single market, but of course that still adds bureaucratic overhead (also I'm not sure we've heard anything about exactly how companies are meant to request those rebates so that could be a mess by itself).
Since that's in accordance with the Northern Ireland protocol and a natural consequence of it, I think that specific scenario probably is not going to be mentioned in whatever trade agreement eventually gets signed, not only because it's not needed, but also to minimise the chances of a negative reaction in the UK if/when Brexit supporters find out that the EU raising tariffs on the UK would result in the UK having to impose additional tariffs on some intra-UK trade.
Yep, and there seems to have been a similar attitude throughout the process - the idea that Brexit is somehow the easy option so doesn't need much in the way of preparation. It's like they imagine that because there was a time when the UK was not in the EU, that leaving the EU is simply a matter of reverting to how things worked at that time (maybe with some shiny new tech layered on top). Then of course there's all the free market bollocks that the UK government seem to genuinely believe, which appears to result in them assuming that they can just do whatever and companies will adapt to those new conditions near-instantaneously.
Didnt they all go the eton -> oxbridge route on top of doing the whole student debate stuff? They have effectively been groomed from a very young age to believe they are the masters of the universe and just wiffle waffle concerns away instead of having a proper debate as that was the winning strategy in the student club
This is especially evident with how some of them behave in the Commons.
Good at delivering opening/closing arguments, but any attempt at a serious debate is a load of nonsense.
Hmm. Nothing surprises me anymore.
The "fun" will be unpicking it and realising that there's probably been a significant proportion of the time wasted/posturing.
I could see the conclusion being what the fuck was the point in leaving, this sucks but hey it's not no deal. Hurrah.
Can they hide that until it goes through 😂
OP
OP
So looks like this whole global britain thing is going splendid
www.ft.com
UK exports lag behind rivals amid Brexit and Covid uncertainty
Italy becomes bigger exporter of goods to the US than Britain for the first time
www.ft.com
If it's resembling anything close to an EFTA arrangement, the ERG nutters won't have any of it. Johnson out in 6 months if so.
Walking it back a bit.
I don't know this source. Twitter bio says writer, actor, singer, and that they host a politics pod?
False Alarm.
Turns out, they meant the diplomats were smoking weed to offset the stress.
Alex is legit on Europe. Guess in this case his source got a bit overeager.
A lot of them did and it fits the "never had to work for any success" template. Especially Johnson, who has pretty much failed at every job he has ever done.
There are still a quite a few of the cabinet though that are from more humble backgrounds. Priti Patel's parents are working class immigrants and Sajid Javid is the son of a bus driver (he doesn't like to mention it). I fear some of their success in politicians is their use as human shields against accusations of racism.
What unites them all seems to be the unwavering self confidence that because they were successful in one field (usually business or banking), they can apply that to other specialisms.
You can see it in their constant hiring of their friends and spouses to helm the covid response. Dido Harding has naff all to recommend her in her working career but they still trust her mere presence in the business world above actual experience and qualifications.
That's why I actually hoped for good things from Cummings (I know), I detest his role in Vote Leave but the outlines of his ideas- that MPs should rely more on scientific advice and specialists in the heart of government- really struck a note with me. turn out he was exactly the same as the rest of them, pushing his unqualified mates into positions. the only difference was he claimed to know about science when, in fact, all he did was read some papers then parrot them at people to dense to know better.
That's why I think it is a very particular mindset, goes beyond simple upper class self confidence (although there is a lot of that). The success of leave over remain has essentially empowered a bunch morons to believe they can achieve anything.
Wait Spain situation improved?! How?!So looks like this whole global britain thing is going splendid
UK exports lag behind rivals amid Brexit and Covid uncertainty
Italy becomes bigger exporter of goods to the US than Britain for the first time
The UK and EU will definitely not have agreed an EFTA-like arrangement in the amount of time they've had.
The EU does. This can theoretically be done later with the deal being approved by the Council for provisional application, but the European Parliament might not appreciate that and may insist on having a vote, which would delay application of any deal.
The UK does not legally need parliamentary approval for a treaty, but the general assumption is that it's a political necessity.
United States hopes for trade deal with UK, Trump's trade chief says
www.reuters.com
United States hopes for trade deal with UK, Trump's trade chief says - BBC
The United States is hopeful of sealing a mini-trade deal with the United Kingdom to reduce tariffs, President Donald Trump's trade chief, Robert Lighthizer, told the BBC.
www.reuters.com