Not voting for Labour is basically voting for them, in a seat that could swing
-
Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
-
We have made minor adjustments to how the search bar works on ResetEra. You can read about the changes here.
BREXIT |OT| ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
- Thread starter theaface
- Start date
- Status
This is kinda what I expect to happen as well. He will be reluctant. That is fine. Let Starmer lead the charge.
A lot of this is going to depend on Bercow. I mean if May wants parliament to vote again after defeat, on virtually the exact same deal, he could ban it. He's there to enforce procedure.
May knows a 2nd ref will lead to remain winning, which is why she will fight it to the end. If brexit doesn't happen she's a joke. If it happens she can go around saying how she did the hard job no one else would, write her memoirs, give high priced talks.
I think the argument in the last few pages is a good indicator that Britain could crash out, to be honest. While polling indicates the public is getting really cold feet on Brexit, the political system can't translate or adapt in terms of policy. And in many ways, Britain is only now having a conversation about what membership means - after it voted on it!
When Angela Merkel interrupted Theresa May several times to ask "so what is it you want" at the last 27+1 meeting, she couldn't answer. Truly though, Prime Minister Corbyn couldn't answer it easily either (even though the Labour selectorate is clearer on this). Until and unless the parties realign on this issue and maintain discipline on it, it would be really hard for a government to answer clearly and survive its honesty.
And this has arguably been somewhat true for the entire time the UK has been in the EEC, EC, and EU. Rebates, exceptions, asterisks, tests on the euro. It just seems like Britain never really, fully, fundamentally accepted what EU membership means. And the departure looks messy, enough that the country's competence will be rightly questioned in future. Just like my America will correctly lose credibility and trust for the horrid nightmarish Trump experience, Britain will for this.
(The difference is, Americans are fighting it with some success: our equivalent to byelections have shown a pendulum-breaking swing to the Democrats and the Democrats are largely clear on what they think of Trump. I recognize that remain supporters and a lot of party members in opposition are moving to clear position - but Britain's opposition leaders can't.)
So it's really beyond Brussels or anyone else to help Theresa May or a hypothetical Labour government. If the UK can't really be in the EU, then go for heaven's sake.
When Angela Merkel interrupted Theresa May several times to ask "so what is it you want" at the last 27+1 meeting, she couldn't answer. Truly though, Prime Minister Corbyn couldn't answer it easily either (even though the Labour selectorate is clearer on this). Until and unless the parties realign on this issue and maintain discipline on it, it would be really hard for a government to answer clearly and survive its honesty.
And this has arguably been somewhat true for the entire time the UK has been in the EEC, EC, and EU. Rebates, exceptions, asterisks, tests on the euro. It just seems like Britain never really, fully, fundamentally accepted what EU membership means. And the departure looks messy, enough that the country's competence will be rightly questioned in future. Just like my America will correctly lose credibility and trust for the horrid nightmarish Trump experience, Britain will for this.
(The difference is, Americans are fighting it with some success: our equivalent to byelections have shown a pendulum-breaking swing to the Democrats and the Democrats are largely clear on what they think of Trump. I recognize that remain supporters and a lot of party members in opposition are moving to clear position - but Britain's opposition leaders can't.)
So it's really beyond Brussels or anyone else to help Theresa May or a hypothetical Labour government. If the UK can't really be in the EU, then go for heaven's sake.
User Banned (3 Days): Drive-by post, history of infractions.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Boring. Repetitive. Obvious.
Would be great if so many replies here weren't just variations of a million posts.
Are they though? I know this is very open to interpretation, but when I see a poll with 42% for no deal brexit, after all that has gone down, after all this brexit fatigue, after all that is known about how absolutely terrible a no deal brexit is, I don't think to myself that the people in the UK are getting cold feet in regards to brexit, what seems to me is that a very very large part of the UK wants out of the EU at all costs, and no deal really is borderline all costs, and that the only reason why the support for leaving isn't bigger is because all options on the table aren't just worse than what the UK currently has, but they are pretty bad all around.
EDITED: To clarify I can see how they are getting cold feet in the sense they aren't as sure as they once were, but that to me doesn't really translate into the UK not really wanting out anymore.
Last edited:
Labour strong opposition based on their cakism policies continues to be hilarious to see, seriously why would the EU ever take this sort of deal (even if a customs union with differing external tariffs made much sense), there are literally 3 choices now, all of which are better for the EU, including no deal which would basically result in the EU taking what ever it wanted from the UK in future negotiations.
Every time a UK politician starts talking about their future relationship with the EU I just instantly go:
Just so much cakism that I got to imagine you guys will never be able to stockpile enough insulin.
I'm sure May has a good stockpile (she's diabetic).
Sure, that's fair - but the shift in the last polling round was pretty clear. Maybe it isn't the same as ardent support for the EU but the alternatives are ranking worse now that their consequences are clearer. Some of those poll results showed a 60%+ pref for remain - that's far away from the final result to be sure. I'm just not sure that's enough to save Britain's membership for the reasons you mentioned already...
(This would also have been a different discussion altogether if the 2016 ref were structured better: there wasn't a requirement for turnout or a specific percentage result in it, was there?)
This seems regretfully obvious. Vast swathes of the countries population will be unhappy no matter what.
Better to be unhappy when the country isn't on fire though.
At least if people have another say and decide for themselves knowing more and some semblance of a possible reality they'll accept it even if disappointed. Unless the government is worried people vote leave again I don't see why another vote is feared so much. Does matter what the question and terms are though.
Its pretty clear that we need a huge deselection because all parties are currently obsolete in their thinking and policy making.
Yup. The rhetoric of the Eurosceptics us coming home to roost, and there's no way to fight a fantasy.
I still don't see how you can both prevent a No Deal scenario while also not addressing the border issue. Is there some fifth dimensional chess move that I'm too stupid to see? Other than dragging this out until March, what is the actual solution?
The problem is, as it has been for some time:
You don't need a majority opposing No Deal. That ship sailed when Parliament voted to invoke Article 50. You can oppose No Deal until you're blue in the face, it's still going to fucking happen by simple operation of law on the 29th March.
You need a majority for something else. And that something else needs to be acceptable to the Government and to the EU (or something that forces their hand).
You don't need a majority opposing No Deal. That ship sailed when Parliament voted to invoke Article 50. You can oppose No Deal until you're blue in the face, it's still going to fucking happen by simple operation of law on the 29th March.
You need a majority for something else. And that something else needs to be acceptable to the Government and to the EU (or something that forces their hand).
Yup, if they want a mechanism for it not to happen, then it's called revoking before we get to the last fucking second of this fiasco.
Our country is fucked isn't it? It's quite fitting that the country that created the game series Lemmings has a huge portion of the country ready to suffer for...stopping immigration.
I do wonder how the Leave communities are going to fare when supplies dry up from air, land and sea, and that the public services are further gutted. Oh, who are we kidding? They'll gladly vote in the worst possible option because of course.
Jesus Christ.
So what is everyone's Brexit plan here? Are people stockpiling already?
I should really think about putting together an emergency stash.
You know dare I say it but May might be about to win by default, we all agree there is not a majority for anything, but this 'no deal' amendment passes it means Mays deal will pass in the end, as incredibly our so called elected Mp's can not get it into their thick heads that it doesn't matter what they say, the EU will simply say Mays deal or no deal. And we will look like complete dickwads and go 'we blocked no deal' and which point I would expect tumbleweed from the EU
Article 50 can be postponed.
When this deal is voted down, Parliament will go crazy for a bit and either May steps down, or throws us into another election. From there we will have to postpone Brexit until we figure out what to do. I'm 50/50 on whether we see a second referendum or an election.
Precisely. Anyone that voted to trigger article 50 was voting for the possibility of no deal. The government was refusing to disclose what their plan was (back when we were still dealing with poker metaphors), yet Labour still three line whipped it through knowing full well that no deal was the only potential outcome set in stone.
If MPs don't want no deal, the only option now is voting for May's deal. Two years of ignorance about the process and treating Brexit as an abstract concept to be swung about to hurt your domestic opposition has seen to that.
My prediction is that May's deal will pass on the second or third reading. There's no other realistic option with a majority in parliament. Even if Labour swing to supporting a second vote and enough Tory rebels make it happen, there will be no way to get agreement as to what the options on the ballot will be before March 29th.
While I don't agree with you (Brexit is a unilateral decision and the EU is not worried if the process drags on past April really), I agree with the rest of the post.
Labour have been engaging in more cakism than the Tories. At least on the Tory side their supporters want Brexit. Corbyn has been dragging his core support through Brexit because he and the leadership of Unite (Who frankly control Corbyn) want it.
It'll lead up to a crisis of some point.
If it leads to an election, and Corbyn insists on fighting on a platform that says that he will deliver Brexit I can see May winning a landslide and sweeping her deal through.
Haha let's make an Era Brexit Looting Discord group to increase our collective spoils lmao
Honestly, I think everyone will fold at the last minute after all the filibustering and showmanship. No one wants to deal with this, and no one wants the fallout if it gets voted down, so it'll be a SHOCK win for May that'll make everyone unhappy. I can just feel it.
For me May deal is still by far the most likely outcome, because it is a compromise that I can kind of see getting enough votes to pass, while at the same time giving room for a future trade agreement where either side can kind of project what ever form of cakism they want.
A second referendum where remain wins is something that could happen, if the processed had been started a few months ago, as it is such process won't even be started in the 14th, let alone in any time frame that is realistic, at which point you need the EU cooperation and I am not sure the EU has many fucks to give left in them about this issue, I mean cool you guys are going for another referendum over something you can already do right now, over something that has been debated to death for over 2 years now, in a time of elections for the EU.
Postponing the exit both requires unanimous voting from the EU which is tricky considering the EU has a lot more to lose from it than to gain from it, and it would in effect make sure the UK is out of the EU for good, since after the fixed date the UK can no longer unilaterally revoke article 50.
Also really don't see why May would step down unless forced to, at which point only a few lunatics that are worse than May want it, since it is very much a job for anyone that wants their career to die. A second general election is even more unlikely I feel, since why would the tories and dup go for another election where they are likely to lose power, not to mention you run into severe time issues with it.
Either of those 2 things need to be forced, and there isn't much indication that there is a majority to force any of these 2.
A second referendum where remain wins is something that could happen, if the processed had been started a few months ago, as it is such process won't even be started in the 14th, let alone in any time frame that is realistic, at which point you need the EU cooperation and I am not sure the EU has many fucks to give left in them about this issue, I mean cool you guys are going for another referendum over something you can already do right now, over something that has been debated to death for over 2 years now, in a time of elections for the EU.
Postponing the exit both requires unanimous voting from the EU which is tricky considering the EU has a lot more to lose from it than to gain from it, and it would in effect make sure the UK is out of the EU for good, since after the fixed date the UK can no longer unilaterally revoke article 50.
Also really don't see why May would step down unless forced to, at which point only a few lunatics that are worse than May want it, since it is very much a job for anyone that wants their career to die. A second general election is even more unlikely I feel, since why would the tories and dup go for another election where they are likely to lose power, not to mention you run into severe time issues with it.
Either of those 2 things need to be forced, and there isn't much indication that there is a majority to force any of these 2.
I don't think so, not this time.
The No Deal brigade don't care about the possibility of a crisis leading to a disorderly Brexit. They want it. Labour will hold against the deal and while the Pro EU wing of the Tories may we fold it won't be enough to counter the ERG and DUP.
After that? Anything goes and it all depends on how much May wants to cling to power.
Hardcore leavers now believe that Brexit WILL crash the economy, but also that said crash will strengthen the nation somehow because blitz spirit or something. You just need a little bit of misery and a lot more turnips.
The real question is how many hardcore leavers there are, if Tories are willing to follow them to the cliff and how influential is the mix of both in terms of votes.
The real question is how many hardcore leavers there are, if Tories are willing to follow them to the cliff and how influential is the mix of both in terms of votes.
Hitting the reset button yadda yadda
Clean slate something something
It worked out OK for Iceland
etc etc
OP
OP
When there are doubts about the credibility of your proposal, just chuck some more pluses in the title. That's why I'd back Canada +++++++++ over WTO +++ personally.
It's more in line with the general spirit of the Khmer Rouge's Year Zero policy, luckily enough without the mass slaughter.
Brexit's unofficial soundtrack right here
I think Labour will vote for the deal in the end, albeit holding their noses when they do so. No deal is so damaging that there's no way they want their fingerprints on it.
It's Hobson's choice, but it's a choice they gladly brought upon themselves.
The EU doesn't want British MEPs sitting in it's parliament after the UK already left. There are elections coming up and your scenario would include British congressmen exerting influence on European legislation for literal years after the country has already left. It's completely unacceptable.
This is the point where the hegemon beats the smaller party into submission. The quintessential moment of " shit or get off the pot".
Last edited:
Dame Caroline (mp behind the no deal letter) said on radio 4 she has been invited to see PM tomorrow, she felt the PM understood what she wanted....
She is about to be wholly disappointed as May will say, if you don't want a no deal, then back my deal!!
She is about to be wholly disappointed as May will say, if you don't want a no deal, then back my deal!!
Yeah.
Tory members (To people who are from elsewhere, that's paid party members or ordinarily people not the members of parliament) want a no deal Brexit. Their leader wants a deal and the MPs are divided as fuck.
Labour party members want a second referendum and would back cancelling Brexit. The leadership and Unite want to deliver a Unicorn Brexit and their MPs are also divided but there are a significant amount who back a 2nd referendum.
Overall, no party is doing what their members or voters want them to right now. Something has to give.
Where did you get that idea? It can be cancelled, not postponed. You can invoke it later, but good luck with the negotiations then.
Well frankly we shouldn't have put ourselves on the clock to begin with.
We should've negotiated the terms of exit and the future relationship then set an exit date.
I've basically stopped spending. Should be GREAT for the economy!
- Status