I've only recently joined Labour, but if enough MPs vote for this to pass without a Second Referendum (That's the only way I'll accept this vote)then that's it.
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BREXIT |OT3| I'd Rather Be Inert in a Ditch
- Thread starter Uzzy
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I've only recently joined Labour, but if enough MPs vote for this to pass without a Second Referendum (That's the only way I'll accept this vote)then that's it.
Good.
Guardian also reports that the DUP are confident they have a bloc of die hard erg members that will fuck off the deal. Around 10-15mps. Hopefully its higher, but even of it is double digits erg voting against the deal that is good news.
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I'd put more store in what Mac D says that what comes from JC/Milne
So that's good.
I don't like the numbers and the noises off though.
Has anyone pinned any of these cunts down yet? Any interviews with Kinnick or Nandy or Smeath or Jarvis?
If they've all gone to the mattresses that's obviously NOT a good sign
So that's good.
I don't like the numbers and the noises off though.
Has anyone pinned any of these cunts down yet? Any interviews with Kinnick or Nandy or Smeath or Jarvis?
If they've all gone to the mattresses that's obviously NOT a good sign
I think it'll go through tomorrow but via Letwins amendment to require the extension and give time for proper scrutiny.
Gives Labour MP's an out.
Remember if it goes through, it's only the first stage, the bill will be far more problematic with a small majority, because it'll go line by line through the deal turning it into legalese and there will be stuff that various groups who are holding their nose will struggle with.
Requesting the extension and giving time for that process is both sensible and reduces the chances it'll ultimately go through. Also gives time for proper impact assessments as well.
It also stops the ERG getting around the Benn Act by agreeing the 'deal' then voting down the legislation.
Gives Labour MP's an out.
Remember if it goes through, it's only the first stage, the bill will be far more problematic with a small majority, because it'll go line by line through the deal turning it into legalese and there will be stuff that various groups who are holding their nose will struggle with.
Requesting the extension and giving time for that process is both sensible and reduces the chances it'll ultimately go through. Also gives time for proper impact assessments as well.
It also stops the ERG getting around the Benn Act by agreeing the 'deal' then voting down the legislation.
That's a pretty sweet deal. They should get that for the rest of the UK too.
Still breaking the whip. There's no technical way out when it's ultimately at the discretion of the whip.
That Letwin amendment is smart and necessary. Given the ERG have already poisoned this Deal in previous amendments that block a border between NI and the UK. Without it they could pass the deal, avoiding the Benn act, then point out the deal is illegal and try to get it thrown out before the leave date hits getting them the No Deal they crave.
I don't think they'll support this either if they don't support the original bill. It's not a meaningful out as they'll still get hammered at the next election due having this go through.
It's probably end off worse for them if this deal is quietly killed rather than sensationally.
This is a quite exceptionally clever amendment, so much so it has me feeling a lot more confident than I was last night.
I can see this passing quite comfortably, forcing the Benn Act extension clause to activate.
Johnson probably shouldn't have pissed off so many former lawyers over the years.
Depends how many no deal nutters there are. I'm sure there's at least some.
Had an email from the guy replacing Kevin Barron in Rother Valley at the next GE. Here's what he thinks of Brexit.
God I hate living on Gammon Prime.Luke Farley said:
The entire Brexit campaign was run on the back of deflection of the realities of Brexit. It's actually fun little nostalgic trip back to the land of Roses and Brexit. Everything will be fine, anything negative can be overcome with British gumption. The rest of th world will be falling at our dainty feet.
Fuck these people and their purile noise.
But here's the rub, they'll vote on this before the original. The original won't stand if this amendment is accepted. This removes two problems for Labour MP/Tory Wets the possibility that the ERG will vote for approval against legislation and for Labour leave MP's it allows them to say they'll vote for the deal but need more information.
Given the names on the motion, if the opposition parties support it it'll go through.
My city voted 67% to leave as well, so you are not alone, though my MP is not voting for the deal as far I can tell.
You think? They're literally doing it before your eyes. A few of the 90s Eurosceptics will be more Unionist than the likes of Baker and Francois and might huff and puff a bit more but I'd genuinely be surprised if there were more than one or 2 holdouts, and I think even that is a stretch
Even 10 would likely kill this stone dead. I just don't see that number rebelling at this point.
Small correction: it's myeu.uk. Thanks for the link though, it's interesting. Loads of projects around here in Gammonville.
Nothing wrong with that. There is a hc cabal of no dealers crazies the erg that almost out the party anyway and into the arms if the bxp, plus those who are unionists, and hardcore ones at that. Them voting the deal down isn't out of the question at all. They'll wont lose the seats or the whip, so they have that cover. Plus having the likes of the dup having tour back as a Tory mo is no bad thing.
All the models I've seen so far have all of the 28 erg lot voting for the deal....which is something. Even a handful not doing that kills the deal. Add the moves labour are already making to cut down the rebel numbers and the deal wont pass.
It will be very interesting to see what noises labour make. The last three times they locked shit down, stayed quiet and focused on keeping a lid on things. If it shakes out the same way, till the vite tomorrow. It's an encouraging sign.
Just like they were going to get May's deal over the line etc
John le Carre did a good interview on R4 the other day where he said the same thing, although the way he said it, and the words he used were far more eloquent than anything I could come up with.
Edit : https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p07qznl0
Two things have changed since then
1. 20 Labour MPs have formed a 'Labour for a deal' group and said they would vote for the deal if it ever came back to the house and that they regret not doing so before
2. We don't have the ERG 'spartan' buffer we had last time.
Yeah but it seems Labours main goal is to ensure this deal dies hence the 3 line whip. Your assuming labour would softened their approach to this deal when even attaching a second referendum to it seems unlikely to pass.
It just feels like an unlikely and poor bet, does it really matter if Labour leave MP's play well to their base when if the deal passed at all labour would certainly get decimented. That's the view point labour is going to have on it. Seems more likely a 3 line whip would be attached to it rather a serious consideration.
Labour can't sell the Letwin amendment to anyone. You could sell the referendum but not this. I can only see the Letwin amendment passing if the original was going to pass anyway.
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Exactly, we can't just keep assuming that because they voted down the May deal they'll do the same, heck without the numbers this tight and with all the independents even just the same Labour rebels might be enough.
Momentum is a hell of a thing in politics and this deal has it, even though it's terrible they just want it done
Is there literally any chance the UK is gonna stay in the EU - or is brexit a sure thing and they're just unable to work out the details?
Man, Brexit sucks. My partner lives in the UK and my plan to move over there with him next year is gonna get thoroughly ruined by that shite.
Man, Brexit sucks. My partner lives in the UK and my plan to move over there with him next year is gonna get thoroughly ruined by that shite.
I'm not familiar with the Lisbon treaty nor what it entails (also weren't new treaties done afterwards? Been a long while since that treaty, our PM from that time has even done some jail time in the meanwhile lmao) but this reads like 100% bullshit.
I know it's only loosely related to the latest revelation, but it astounded me this morning that people are still embellishing our position for the sake of rationalising their fantasies. Hence we apparently leapfrogged Japan to become the third largest economy, according to these sorts
Yes, he said it better and with less obvious bile than me. Swearing is fun though.
Nothing is certain at this point. It is still all completely up in the air.
It is assorted complete bullshit and twisted half truths. Par for the course.
The gap between Japan (3rd) and the UK in GDP (5th) is greater than the gap between UK and Switzerland (23rd)
There are two giant economies (US and China), one giant trade bloc (EU) which acts like a single economy for the purposes of trade. One medium country in Japan (Germany would be the other if was distinct from the EU) and then a bunch of small countries of varying size.
Wouldn't be surprised if France starts seriously pulling away once brexit sets in.
The Lisbon Treaty came into full force in 2009 there's no subsequent additional provisions. It contains absolutely none of this shit.
Thats the problem the EU face, if (?) Brexit is a success, other countries will want to do the same.
There it is. Par for the course indeed. Shameful!
One of my mum's friends shared that with her a few months ago. Reply with this.
I didn't think somebody would be stupid enough to just say it but here you go
pay all the money, annex NI and then shoot yourself in the head
Wonder what effect of any this will have. Probably nothing but it's monumentally stupid to allow the mask to just slip like that.
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