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Media Create Sales: Week 16, 2020 (Apr 13 - Apr 19)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
No. Just no.
The highest ever sales for a game in Japan is Pokemon Red/Blue/Green, which stands at 7.9 million. And that was the biggest worldwide phenomenon a game has ever been.
The highest ever sales for a game in Japan is Pokemon Red/Blue/Green, which stands at 7.9 million. And that was the biggest worldwide phenomenon a game has ever been.
One thing I hate about Nintendo success stories....people always feel the need to go crazy with predictions about lifetime sales instead of just appreciating the fact that a console game is willing to sell that much in Japan lol.
For all we know ACNH will be sold and playable on current Switch models, Switch Pro and a Switch 2 etc.
So yeah the game will be a evergreen and likely sell for the next 5 years or whenever a sequel is ready to be released.
No point in putting a number on it but it's gonna be the best selling console game ever Japan.
For all we know ACNH will be sold and playable on current Switch models, Switch Pro and a Switch 2 etc.
So yeah the game will be a evergreen and likely sell for the next 5 years or whenever a sequel is ready to be released.
No point in putting a number on it but it's gonna be the best selling console game ever Japan.
You realise there's a limited supply of people that can buy the game, right?
My personal estimate would be anything above Red/Blue is bold.
My personal estimate would be anything above Red/Blue is bold.
For context, the current best selling game of all time in Japan sits at 8M something.
I was with you for 10M but above that is pushing it.
I was with you for 10M but above that is pushing it.
Well I guess only way to see which one is right is to wait for few years heh (if we somehow remember that this conversation even happened and still use ERA). Lets just say that history is not on your side lol.
Switch 2 will get its own games or otherwise it sales will be greatly compromised (people buy new consoles to play new games). All games working on original Switch would mean less sales for Switch 2 because there would be less reasons to own one. For example while PS4 pro has given nice boost for PS4 sales globally it's base PS4 that is the best selling SKU by big margin. Nintendo (or Sony or MS) don't really care about the final ltd sales of their consoles. They care about yearly sales of both sw and hw. They are not going to force Switch to sell DS numbers if it means that their yearly console (and sw) sales suffer.
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WAIT
I said it's possible, that's not my actual prediction hahahaha.
But yes, i think 10 million at worst, 15 million at best. So 12 million is pretty spot on with what i would predict.
I WAS TRYING TO ARRANCE AN AVATAR BET FFS!
YOU CAN'T PREDICT THE SAME NUMBER IN A BET
*cries in analysis*
im working with COVID19 patients lol. I'm not at home and I work about 60h a week :p
It would be an easier prediction of Japan's birth rate was higher.
No one expected GTA V to sell for 2 console generations and over 100m when it launched first...same for Minecraft or Mario Kart 8. These legs of these big games and ever greens are difficult to predict and mostly depend on when the publisher decides to replace said game.
12m at this point is....too much though lol.
No one expected GTA V to sell for 2 console generations and over 100m when it launched first...same for Minecraft or Mario Kart 8. These legs of these big games and ever greens are difficult to predict and mostly depend on when the publisher decides to replace said game.
12m at this point is....too much though lol.
At the same time since we saw Switch will be success (after launch basically) people have generally made tons of hyperbole predictions that have not happened (in this thread and in NPD thread, still remember that December 2018 NPD prediction thread and PS2 home console record going down lol). I mean broken clock is right twice a day ;P (with now this AC craziness and pandemic boosting sales).
Lol.
If Q1 shipment for JP is 4.5-5M that's a figure achieved in 12 days (of course meant to cover forward weeks). It would need to do a ~3.5x from its first 12 day shipment to achieve it.
So far Chris continues to maintain that physical stock is not short, but it is tight, so demand is keeping pace despite the availability of a digital option.
I think TBone's ~7M by end of Q1/JUN is achievable. Doubling that over the following ~5 years that it will move a large number of units doesn't seem very absurd. It can pull another million or so for the remainder of this year, Nd after that it's a matter of performing like MK8D +35% for the remainder of its life. If weeklies by holiday time have already fallen behind MK8D launch aligned (so DEC 2017) then obviously I'm delusional, but if a solid buffer remains then I think LTD trajectory will be above 12M.
By far the strangest point here is that you don't think their will be another revision, for a Nintendo handheld? Nintendo cranks out revisions like it's nobodies business for handhelds, it's their bread and butter for handhelds and always has been. There's an extremely high chance of a revision and price cut either next year or the one afterwards.
Yup the DS one sold close to 2 million units, both Fever on Wii and Megamix on 3DS sold over 700k
I mean if that's what you believe, then sure? I like to make predictions on almost impossible bets. This is one of them. Even if it's in thread form. Others know me of doing this from another site so I don't see the problem... if anything your post comes off a bit rude lol. But to each their own :P
Oh. I didn't mention it but obviously there will be revisions. I guess we will see how those will actually boost sales or just keep them dropping faster (like with 3DS or actually PS4 Pro too to some degree). I also think that revisions would mean no price cuts. Switch Pro (if there is one) will just take the place of original Switch with same price point and leave Lite as the cheap entry point device. I don't see them selling three different SKUs of Switch (Lite, base and Pro) with different price points.
honestly I wanted to do 10mil, really really wanted to but I didn't want an easy victory. Besides looking at this thread already I'm seeing some good post ;)
Yeah there are lots of IP that could sustain sales with the right product.
nintendogs
Nintendo Land
Rythm Heaven
Wario Ware
Tomodachi collection
Wii Sports (Switch Sports)
Big Brain Academy
A new 2D Mario
Maybe a few surprise third party gets like Monster Hunter would help but I don't think it's necesaey.
i think a Switch aimed at enthousiasts with a higher price and bigger screen with a little hardware boost will be a good strategy going forward. I don't think the difference will be very big but I can see them selling 3 models at 3 different prices.
Birth rate is not so much an issue when the game is played by people of all ages. The adult age category is targetted a lot by the game.
Eh i'd say so far the only "disappoint" Switch has ever done was 2018, when it failed to reach the 20 million goal (and everything that contribuited to that, so the 2 million in December NPD 2018, ecc).
But outside of that, 2017 and 2019 have been way better years than expected for most people, and so far 2020 is killing it.
For the record, i agree with you that Switch won't stay over 4 million yearly in 2022, but i would not be surprised if that happen.
That depends on what the revisions actually is I'd said the most probable chance is there will be a price cut unless it's a 2DS situation but I honestly think the lite is the 2DS in this scenario, not sure how much more they can really stripe back. More likely I think is the introduction of a new premium model for the current regular switch price point and everything else gets a price cut with the lite getting closer to that $100 dollar sweet spot.
The Corona virus created a unique situation where an even bigger gaming phenomenon can happen. I don't think it would have been possible without the virus situation but now I think it has a shot.
It's already close to 6 million and is showing no signs of stopping.
It has a genuine chance to outsell Mario Kart Wii / NSMB Wii (whatever sold most) as the best selling, modern time Nintendo game ever (WW sales ofc).
This prediction is based mainly on the fact than I think Switch will evolve into many different platforms over time including a Pro, a home console, a backwards compatible Switch 2 and maybe even a tablet only device in the future meaning it's install base could be as high as 150 million to sell to.
It's early sales are mind boggling. I bought it but just can't get into it as I've always had an issue with games where there is no clear set out goal.
This prediction is based mainly on the fact than I think Switch will evolve into many different platforms over time including a Pro, a home console, a backwards compatible Switch 2 and maybe even a tablet only device in the future meaning it's install base could be as high as 150 million to sell to.
It's early sales are mind boggling. I bought it but just can't get into it as I've always had an issue with games where there is no clear set out goal.
The idea of a prolonged lifespan is all well and good but Nintendo actually has to execute on the idea, and consumers actually need to respond to it.
Nintendo tried to support 3DS through to the beginning of last year but consumers had completely moved on.
The reason PlayStation consoles have been able to have long lifespans has been the strong back bone of 3rd party support. Vita was still get games from major publishers two years into the Switch's life despite being something of a failure and PS3 was still getting major games in 2016.
Nintendo tried to support 3DS through to the beginning of last year but consumers had completely moved on.
The reason PlayStation consoles have been able to have long lifespans has been the strong back bone of 3rd party support. Vita was still get games from major publishers two years into the Switch's life despite being something of a failure and PS3 was still getting major games in 2016.
It's not about it being an issue but the markets infliction with new players and customers. People always ask why GTA V stick around forever ....because it's a new generations of players picking it up.
When the games reaches a saturation point it's up for the next generation to pick up the slack. A lot would have to come together to reach these kind of high numbers, a fair share of new customers being one of them.
Chris1964 hiska-kun While we know that Nintendo is preparing big stock for the upcoming two weeks (...at least for Week 18), I doubt retailers have knowledge about how post-GW weekly restocks might look like, right? We've heard that Nintendo has asked up to 50% increase in production for specific components right for this period, but still it could take a while to see those increases reflect into stock availability.
DS NSW
2004: 1.495.593 / 2017: ~3.3
2005: 4.151.356 / 2018: ~3.5
2006: 8.358.730 / 2019: ~4.5
2007: 7.167.372 / 2020: ~6.5
2008: 3.946.585 / 2021: ~5.0
2009: 4.159.445/ 2022: ~4.5
2010: 2.872.621 / 2023: ~3.5
2011: 657.815 / 2024: ~1.5 March launch
2012: 68.973 / 2025: leg out to 33M LTD
Is this what you are forecasting? I can't see 2024 being that high if Nintendo is planning on a march launch for the next hardware. 2023 is quite high as well, which is why I think NSW will end up at about 30-31M instead of 33-34M