lol Ok. 👌🏾
Why is Sony struggling with production when MS seems to be doing just fine? Isn't it more or less the same supply chain?
They're producing 11mn consoles, down from a previous target of 15m.
I'd hardly describe that as 'struggling'
tbh, i called this last year. going with high clocks was always going to cost production issues. 50% yield rate is awful.
this thing isnt going to be cheap. we are going to end up paying for those losses somehow. maybe not at launch but somehow. expect a ps+ price increase or something.
this is literally the worst possible news.
the original Bloomberg report was 5-6 million units so they're still at roughly double the original production estimate
but yes y'all go on about how this is the worst news for struggling Sony
Why is Sony struggling with production when MS seems to be doing just fine? Isn't it more or less the same supply chain?
Probably because Sony expected production even after this news is higher than Series production.Why is Sony struggling with production when MS seems to be doing just fine? Isn't it more or less the same supply chain?
Yeah I'm wondering the same. I remember when the Switch came out, it was never in stock (at least where I was). I wasn't planning on buying the Switch until later so it wasn't an issue for me, but I'm trying to aim to get one of these within the first few months when I have the money (like maybe February or March) and I'm not looking forward to dealing with scalpers if it's impossible to find.
Why anger exactly?
the original Bloomberg report was 5-6 million units so they're still at roughly double the original production estimate
but yes y'all go on about how this is the worst news for struggling Sony
While some people are here to console war or concern troll, the 50% yield news is concerning and that they are reportedly having trouble to reduce it is also troubling. It won't impact Sony at launch most likely but it will impact there ability to meet demand early next year if they fail to get that yield down significantly and will be something they would eagerly want to address to reduce further costs.It's not even worth it at this point. Let them get their jollies here before Wednesday when they all will vanish all of a sudden.
We don't know when they were having the yield issues. They were originally projecting a much lower production amount but have recently increased it. That suggests their yields have improved but not high enough to reach the 15mil number.How reliable is this report, though?
It's unfathomable to me that Sony would go into next-gen with yields of 50% unless they knew it was only temporary and that they could eventually get yields up to 80-90% as usual. Clocks aren't the only thing that influence yield, size is also a very big factor. So I'd be interested in knowing if this is a problem due to clocks or just a problem with RDNA2 in general on the 7nm process.
If clocks ARE the reason, then why wasn't this known ages ago before Sony announced the specs of the PS5? Surely at that time they had done significant testing and early production runs to prove out the speeds they were going to target. A 50% yield for the duration of the generation is ATROCIOUS and not really viable, so I refuse to believe this is some sort of long-term issue. Sony isn't stupid. They should have just reduced the clocks IF that was a viable solution.
This just goes to show you how unreliable these Bloomberg reports are, I'm not sure how much we can really trust their data.
Poor yields != defects in retail units. Defective chips or chips that don't meet the requirements for being in the system don't get put in the system.With the yields issue, if that does mean potentially more defects (if true), then I think I may just wait for beginning of 2021 to snag a console for them to iron out any kinks.
Read up on binning. I do this for a living.
Probably because Sony expected production even after this news is higher than Series production.
Sony: We want make 100, we reach 75.
MS: we wan make 50.
Something like this.
Not sure what you'd be gaining since consoles sold in early 2021 are part of this initial 11 million.With the yields issue, if that does mean potentially more defects (if true), then I think I may just wait for beginning of 2021 to snag a console for them to iron out any kinks.
GPU clock. XsX GPU only needs to clock to 1.8GHz. 300ish MHz less than PS5.Why is Sony struggling with production when MS seems to be doing just fine? Isn't it more or less the same supply chain?
Is the same source that everyone here swore by when it came to BOM price though.This just goes to show you how unreliable these Bloomberg reports are, I'm not sure how much we can really trust their data.
Right. So magically MS just happened to completely avoid this issue and everything is hunkydory? Come on man.
We need Albert Penello to weigh in on just how crazy a 50% yield is for a console coming into launch.
If the article is true and the yields are slowly increasing without those major changes doesn't that suggest production line issues as well? Something that would improve over time regardless.Read up on binning. I do this for a living.
If more of the chips are coming in on the slow side and you have to increase the voltage to meet the intended clock speed, you could end up blowing your power budget and the chip has to be tossed.
The process could be tweaked to help fix this in the short term (but "short term" is months). That is if TSMC would do this. I don't know. And in the long run, AMD could work on speed paths to fix the speed issues (now we are talking multiple quarters).
Fixable stuff. Just not in the launch window.
It's so crazy I'm inclined not to believe it's true. It's a lot to unpack.
I think more precision questions may be in order - is it 50% of what they expected? 50% of the total wafer sheet? Those may be very different numbers. The reason chips have CU's turned off is to try and increase the yields but honestly that number generally represents the expected loss. So if you have 2 disabled CU's on a, say 38CU (getting you 36 good CU's) - you're expecting 5%-6% failure rates (this is an oversimplification but you get the point). Launch yield issues may represent 10%, maybe 20% on the high end.
50% failures basically doubles the cost of the chip per box - which is the single most expensive part of the BOM.
My tendency when I hear a number like this is to not believe it. However, they are clocking that CU pretty high and depending on what you believe about how/when in the process that may have happened, it could have proven to be a problem in manufacturing.
I guess we'll find out more tomorrow!
Sony bumping production later on doesn't mean Bloomberg's report wasn't accurate.This just goes to show you how unreliable these Bloomberg reports are, I'm not sure how much we can really trust their data.
Is there something happening tomorrow that sheds more light on this?
Nope, they have a massively smaller die on the Series S. The Series X die is like 360 mm and Series S is just under 200 mm. I would bet they use rejected Series X dies for cloud servers, specifically for backwards compatible titles on Xcloud
This to me sounds like the yields was 50% at one point of time, probably at the beginning, but has improved by now.But the company has come up against manufacturing issues, such as production yields as low as 50% for its SOC, which have cut into its ability to produce as many consoles as it wishes, said the people, who asked to remain anonymous because the deliberations aren't public. Yields have been gradually improving but have yet to reach a stable level, they added.
If the article is true and the yields are slowly increasing without those major changes doesn't that suggest production line issues as well? Something that would improve over time regardless.
Penello gave a great breakdown of this exact topic in one of the old next-gen threads and explained it. He is in this thread right now so he can confirm it if he feels like it but I won't tag him to win an internet argument.Source needed. AMD gets paid per chip by Sony. Whether that's a licensing fee or a fee for the physical chip is unclear but we have not seen a direct relationship between TSMC and Sony (for console chips).
I think we all believe price is coming tomorrow? Sony would have known about this for quite a while (before the leaks) and I assume it would impact the pricing strategy. Doubling the cost of the SOC would add over $100 to the BOM.
Maybe not. But if they come in with aggressive pricing tomorrow that would make me inclined not to believe a report like this.
*puts on flame retardent suit*
This kinda gives credence to notion that PS5 had 9TF GPU originally like the leaked specs but up it to 10.28TF after learning about XSX being 12TF machine. Cranking clock and voltage over original design spec is never good for yields.
We'll, yeah. If you look at it, they will have 10mil consoles made by end of 2020. Then the plan seemed to be 5mil per quarter after that. The reduction from 15mil to 11mil means they only expect 1mil, from planned 5mil, in q1. That's a reduction of 80%.While some people are here to console war or concern troll, the 50% yield news is concerning and that they are reportedly having trouble to reduce it is also troubling. It won't impact Sony at launch most likely but it will impact there ability to meet demand early next year if they fail to get that yield down significantly and will be something they would eagerly want to address to reduce further costs.
They're producing 11mn consoles, down from a previous target of 15m.
I'd hardly describe that as 'struggling'
Price coming Wednesday...still two days away :) But yeah, you're right, maybe price should shed some light on this. But it seems really silly again, if clocks are to blame, for Sony to accept such an abysmal yield...for every chip they are throwing away another one. They could have just went bigger a slower for less cost, again *IF* clocks are to blame and this isn't some new process issue in general. It's a colossal waste of money and would be one of the biggest hardware blunders ever.
I don't understand how Sony executives would accept such a scenario when they could have simply reduced clocks and improved yields.
The wafers themselves are usually a fixed cost right? Do companies ever have pricing agreements where they can get a discount for overly defective wafers? Seems like the only way to have a low yield and prices the article is suggesting.it's possible that the yield issues are TSMC's problem and that the process isn't meeting the pre-production models. But there are other chips on this process (and not just Microsoft). They'd likely be seeing similar issues. But every chip has the possibility of stressing the process in different ways.
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The wafers themselves are usually a fixed cost right? Do companies ever have pricing agreements where they can get a discount for overly defective wafers? Seems like the only way to have a low yield and prices the article is suggesting.
Yeah. You would think they would have showed a much larger impact on their financial forecasts if that was the case though.
Maybe the yields aren't abysmal. Not good but not disastrous maybe. If it was abysmL, you will see lowering of clocks for sure. We had GPU clocks tweak down before with GameCube going from 200MHz to 162MHz few months before launch IIRC. Im sure that was yields too. They upped the CPU clock from 400 to 488MHz to compensate.Price coming Wednesday...still two days away :) But yeah, you're right, maybe price should shed some light on this. But it seems really silly again, if clocks are to blame, for Sony to accept such an abysmal yield...for every chip they are throwing away another one. They could have just went bigger a slower for less cost, again *IF* clocks are to blame and this isn't some new process issue in general. It's a colossal waste of money and would be one of the biggest hardware blunders ever.
I don't understand how Sony executives would accept such a scenario when they could have simply reduced clocks and improved yields.
To me it doesn't give credance because again, sarcrificing a huge amount of wasted cost just to increase from 9TF to 10.28TF is unimaginably stupid.
We're not getting a $600 dollar console.Even more then ever I'm Team $599/$499. I really think the DE is the way the can match the Series X for marketing but still sell more disc based PS5s despite for $100 more w/ the drive and plastic cost being a fraction of that.
$599 literally makes no senseEven more then ever I'm Team $599/$499. I really think the DE is the way the can match the Series X for marketing but still sell more disc based PS5s despite for $100 more w/ the drive and plastic cost being a fraction of that.
Yeah. You would think they would have showed a much larger impact on their financial forecasts if that was the case though.