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Jeffram

Member
Oct 29, 2017
3,924
This is just a Bloomber reportg, Sony and TMSC knew from day1.
Sure, but we have this report from July:

www.videogameschronicle.com

PS5 production has reportedly doubled, but 2020 supply issues are still possible | VGC

Sony ‘orders 10 million units’ in 2020, up from 5-6…

So the initial plan was 5-6M produced through 2020 (2.5-3M per quarter)
The orders doubled sometime close to July (after production started) for 10M by 2020 (5M per quarter)

Then we get new news, that would have been known well in advance of the production starting, that the yield on the SOC are low changing the target from 15M by March (5M per quarter) to 11M (just under 3.7M per quarter).

Not sure why they would pump up production while the yields should have been known only to cut them 2 months later.
 

AegonSnake

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,566
Haha ur notification is getting hammered, eh? 🤣😂

Be ready tomorrow if prices are not 500 and 600 , again they will tag u nonstop 😬😬😂❤
lmao. I am used to it by now. My posts cut right through people. It's a talent. or a curse.... I cant tell.

I hope they tag me tomorrow, i dont want this console to be $599, but right now with what we know, i cannot reconcile a $399 console in my mind unless sony is willing to take a massive loss or pass down the costs to the consumers somehow. The BOM was already $70 higher than the PS4 BOM so at $399 they would already be taking a $50-70 extra loss. Regardless, The estimates are down by 4 million units, failure rate was as low as 50% and still not stable. if this isnt the time to panic, i dont know what is. You were in the next gen threads with us, everyone dismissed the github leaks because even 2.0 ghz was too high and we all knew the yields would be bad. This is all our worst fears come true.

I wish I had the same faith in Sony like these guys do, but this is arguably the worst news we couldve heard going into the conference tomorrow.
 

Xevross

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,048
Even lower? 11m is almost double the Ps4 launch. And double the initial production of Ps5.
11m is just over a million more than the comparable PS4 figure. It's probably going to mean 9 million shipped by end of march compared to 7.5m for PS4.

PS4 was still sold out at that time so PS5 probably will be too.
 

Rex1157

Banned
Nov 22, 2017
1,429
Don't people here get tired of wishing and hoping for the worst FUD about the ps5 to be true? The console is going to be just fine, time to move on, lol.
 

Sqrt

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,880
There is no such thing as "dynamic teraflop" in the spec sheet. Variable frequency in PS5 makes fuckall difference to the peak TF (just like PC GPU). Its a 10TF machine just like SX is a 12TF machine, that's about it.
You know perfectly what I was talking about.... Tying the peak processing power to the clocks.... And your inane argument doesn't even make sense, since teraflops are the moost dynamic part... it will vary with the amount of work its assigned and there's nothing more dynamic in a computer. So, close this inane discussion and leave it like that. This is the last post I will make on the subject.
 

Decarb

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,642
You know perfectly what I was talking about.... Tying the processing power to the clocks.... And your inane doesn't even make sense, since terafloops are the moost dynamic part... it will vary with the amount of work its assigned and there's nothing more dynamic in a computer. So, close this inane discussion and leave it like that. This is the last post I will make on the subject.
LMAO alright then.
 

Dewin

Member
Oct 26, 2017
627
11m is just over a million more than the comparable PS4 figure. It's probably going to mean 9 million shipped by end of march compared to 7.5m for PS4.

PS4 was still sold out at that time so PS5 probably will be too.
Ps5 would be sold out even if they hit the 15m mark. They cannot satisfy initial demand no matter how hard they try. This goes for MS too.
 
Jan 20, 2019
10,681
lmao. I am used to it by now. My posts cut right through people. It's a talent. or a curse.... I cant tell.

I hope they tag me tomorrow, i dont want this console to be $599, but right now with what we know, i cannot reconcile a $399 console in my mind unless sony is willing to take a massive loss or pass down the costs to the consumers somehow. The BOM was already $70 higher than the PS4 BOM so at $399 they would already be taking a $50-70 extra loss. Regardless, The estimates are down by 4 million units, failure rate was as low as 50% and still not stable. if this isnt the time to panic, i dont know what is. You were in the next gen threads with us, everyone dismissed the github leaks because even 2.0 ghz was too high and we all knew the yields would be bad. This is all our worst fears come true.

I wish I had the same faith in Sony like these guys do, but this is arguably the worst news we couldve heard going into the conference tomorrow.

The production is bigger then the ps4, that right there tells you is not a 599 console.

Well, you are going to find out tomorow.
 

Brohan

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
2,544
Netherlands
There is way to much context and details missing to come to much of a conclusion about what any of this will mean.

How long ago was the yield at 50% and how long did these low yields last for? For all we know they struggled with bad yields at the very start and found the problem real quick and have been adjusting the process all this time.

Alot of people in here act like Sony has been forced to throw away half of their SoCs since they started production. That's laughable and I don't understand why anyone would jump to such a conclusion.
 

NoWayOut

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,073
No they can't. It doesn't work that way.
No they can't. The S has been designed with a much smaller SOC footprint. If they are reusing failed XSX chips it would be in a different product. If RDNA2 is the issue then everyone is getting hit with it. However Sony's higher clocks would exaggerate the problem because they might have perfectly functional chips but they aren't able to hit the speed they need with the voltage they have planned.

Any official doc or info where they state the Series S uses a completely different SoC than the Series X? I'm no expert, but that's a lot of extra cash designing a separate SoC that has less CUs and lower clocks for the $299 console
 

Omnistalgic

self-requested temp ban
Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,973
NJ
I'm getting a PS5 if it's the last thing I do
driving-a-car-off-a-jump-and-landing-on-a-flying-cargo-plane--95718.gif
lol this gif is amazing!
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,122
lmao. I am used to it by now. My posts cut right through people. It's a talent. or a curse.... I cant tell.

I hope they tag me tomorrow, i dont want this console to be $599, but right now with what we know, i cannot reconcile a $399 console in my mind unless sony is willing to take a massive loss or pass down the costs to the consumers somehow. The BOM was already $70 higher than the PS4 BOM so at $399 they would already be taking a $50-70 extra loss. Regardless, The estimates are down by 4 million units, failure rate was as low as 50% and still not stable. if this isnt the time to panic, i dont know what is. You were in the next gen threads with us, everyone dismissed the github leaks because even 2.0 ghz was too high and we all knew the yields would be bad. This is all our worst fears come true.

I wish I had the same faith in Sony like these guys do, but this is arguably the worst news we couldve heard going into the conference tomorrow.

Sony taking a big lost is normal , the best selling console PS2 had poor yields in the first year and they were losing over $125 per console.
The most important aspect is what the yields are now .
They are not going to price there console on short term cost .
Zen 2 had 70% rate when it first started out and now over 90% if i remember right , so we know these thing go up and that the case with Sony already .
 

Deusmico

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,254
The XBSS is reported to already be a big loser for MS. And increasing RAM is not that easy on a SoC. It's limited by the available bandwidth and the density of the chips.

obviously xbox has a limit on how much it can spend....

xbox is 20years on the console space and in not allowed to drag the company profitability with huge losses or else shareholders will ask to cut the division.
 

platocplx

2020 Member Elect
Member
Oct 30, 2017
36,072
Any official doc or info where they state the Series S uses a completely different SoC than the Series X? I'm no expert, but that's a lot of extra cash designing a separate SoC that has less CUs and lower clocks for the $299 console
its literally a different size, different CPU Speed, Different layout configuration for memory etc. it doesnt work that way.
 

Brohan

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
2,544
Netherlands
Yeah.. I think alot of products would be fucked if their prices depended on initial yields.

Doesn't work that way. It's a long term game.
 

ghostcrew

The Shrouded Ghost
Administrator
Oct 27, 2017
30,358
Even lower? 11m is almost double the Ps4 launch. And double the initial production of Ps5.

This isn't 11 million available at launch. It is 11 million produced by March 2021. These will be for Q2 too.

It's not a low number by any stretch (it's still marginally more than the PS4 produced in the same period) but it's not double.

Production ≠ instantly appearing at retail globally
 

Sqrt

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,880
obviously xbox has a limit on how much it can spend....

xbox is 20years on the console space and in not allowed to drag the company profitability with huge losses or else shareholders will ask to cut the division.
That's not what I said. Just that I think that MS may be willing to lose more than Sony, not unlimited.
 

gl0w

QA Tester
Verified
Mar 23, 2018
630
lmao. I am used to it by now. My posts cut right through people. It's a talent. or a curse.... I cant tell.

I hope they tag me tomorrow, i dont want this console to be $599, but right now with what we know, i cannot reconcile a $399 console in my mind unless sony is willing to take a massive loss or pass down the costs to the consumers somehow. The BOM was already $70 higher than the PS4 BOM so at $399 they would already be taking a $50-70 extra loss. Regardless, The estimates are down by 4 million units, failure rate was as low as 50% and still not stable. if this isnt the time to panic, i dont know what is. You were in the next gen threads with us, everyone dismissed the github leaks because even 2.0 ghz was too high and we all knew the yields would be bad. This is all our worst fears come true.

I wish I had the same faith in Sony like these guys do, but this is arguably the worst news we couldve heard going into the conference tomorrow.

I can read doom all over this post.

Funny guy!

Don't people here get tired of wishing and hoping for the worst FUD about the ps5 to be true? The console is going to be just fine, time to move on, lol.

Indeed.
 

xxracerxx

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
31,222
Who cares if these companies take a loss of the consoles at first? They have done the math and can make it work.
 

platocplx

2020 Member Elect
Member
Oct 30, 2017
36,072
Who cares if these companies take a loss of the consoles at first? They have done the math and can make it work.
only people upset by this should be shareholders not being able to get a huge gain in revenue if they were able to prod 15 mil in a quarter lol. doesnt scream anything else to people.

That didn't work great for Sega and the DC, TBF. :P
comparing this to sega and dreamcast. Lmao. incredible work here.
 

Jeffram

Member
Oct 29, 2017
3,924
This isn't 11 million available at launch. It is 11 million produced by March 2021. These will be for Q2 too.

It's not a low number by any stretch (it's still marginally more than the PS4 produced in the same period) but it's not double.

Production ≠ instantly appearing at retail globally
PS4 wasn't marginally close to 11M units in its first 9 months. They were producing at a rate of 2.5m per quarter. PS5 is 3.7Mish per quarter.
 

Sqrt

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,880
only people upset by this should be shareholders not being able to get a huge gain in revenue if they were able to prod 15 mil in a quarter lol. doesnt scream anything else to people.


comparing this to sega and dreamcast. Lmao. incredible work here.
:P means tongue in cheek, sorry for the confusion.
 

DavidDesu

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
5,718
Glasgow, Scotland
Here's hoping quality control is good and there's no issues post launch. I still remember getting a broken Original Xbox at launch and a broken iPhone 4 at launch (Apple Store in my city managed to replace same day which was incredible).
Also sounds like the price is super competitive considering the amounts they wanted. Here's hoping the disc one is in less demand.
 

platocplx

2020 Member Elect
Member
Oct 30, 2017
36,072
:P means tongue in cheek, sorry for the confusion.
i was about to say lol.

Here's hoping quality control is good and there's no issues post launch. I still remember getting a broken Original Xbox at launch and a broken iPhone 4 at launch (Apple Store in my city managed to replace same day which was incredible).
Also sounds like the price is super competitive considering the amounts they wanted. Here's hoping the disc one is in less demand.
im going back and forth about getting digital, i have to look at all my disk games and see which ones i actually still want to play. to decide. gonna be interesting come tomorrow if price is finally revealed(i hope so) lol
 

MrFox

VFX Rendering Pipeline Developer
Verified
Jun 8, 2020
1,435
Sure, but we have this report from July:

www.videogameschronicle.com

PS5 production has reportedly doubled, but 2020 supply issues are still possible | VGC

Sony ‘orders 10 million units’ in 2020, up from 5-6…

So the initial plan was 5-6M produced through 2020 (2.5-3M per quarter)
The orders doubled sometime close to July (after production started) for 10M by 2020 (5M per quarter)

Then we get new news, that would have been known well in advance of the production starting, that the yield on the SOC are low changing the target from 15M by March (5M per quarter) to 11M (just under 3.7M per quarter).

Not sure why they would pump up production while the yields should have been known only to cut them 2 months later.
The article says "Sony had previously set a production target between five and six million by March 2021".
 

sjackso3

Member
Oct 30, 2017
630
Houston
If the rumors about the yields are accurate, the $499 disc, $449 digital makes sense to me. Given the value of what you're getting with the tech, Sony's pedigree for making games, and a "relative" scarcity of consoles (relative to demand because they would still be producing a lot IMO), ithe PS5 will fly off the shelves at those prices. Going any lower just doesn't make any financial sense. I also don't see any scenario where they go over $500. Those prices are the sweet spot and I expect that Sony will do very well in that range.

I guess this could also explain why they are air freighting consoles because they are running behind. If the yield thingnis true, that rumor now makes sense. As others have said, pre-order early or you might miss out.
 

Gamer17

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
9,399
lmao. I am used to it by now. My posts cut right through people. It's a talent. or a curse.... I cant tell.

I hope they tag me tomorrow, i dont want this console to be $599, but right now with what we know, i cannot reconcile a $399 console in my mind unless sony is willing to take a massive loss or pass down the costs to the consumers somehow. The BOM was already $70 higher than the PS4 BOM so at $399 they would already be taking a $50-70 extra loss. Regardless, The estimates are down by 4 million units, failure rate was as low as 50% and still not stable. if this isnt the time to panic, i dont know what is. You were in the next gen threads with us, everyone dismissed the github leaks because even 2.0 ghz was too high and we all knew the yields would be bad. This is all our worst fears come true.

I wish I had the same faith in Sony like these guys do, but this is arguably the worst news we couldve heard going into the conference tomorrow.
I also don't think 399 is happening. I think 449 and 499 is best case scenario haha. Let's see what sony does tomorrow
 

platocplx

2020 Member Elect
Member
Oct 30, 2017
36,072
If the rumors about the yields are accurate, the $499 disc, $449 digital makes sense to me. Given the value of what you're getting with the tech, Sony's pedigree for making games, and a "relative" scarcity of consoles (relative to demand because they would still be producing a lot IMO), ithe PS5 will fly off the shelves at those prices. Going any lower just doesn't make any financial sense. I also don't see any scenario where they go over $500. Those prices are the sweet spot and I expect that Sony will do very well in that range.

I guess this could also explain why they are air freighting consoles because they are running behind. If the yield thing is true, that rumor now makes sense. As others have said, pre-order early or you might miss out.
yeah i dont think there is a over 500 scenario espcially if analysts are putting the price floor at 449 and 399.
I also don't think 399 is happening. I think 449 and 499 is best case scenario haha. Let's see what sony does tomorrow
im still team 399 and 499! but i think you are probally right
 

bi0g3n3sis

Banned
Aug 10, 2020
211
It was an issue that was not caught because they did not TEST well enough, essentially the point I am trying to drive home. Had they done so, they would have noticed that the console design was inadequate.

Similarly, clocking chips to the moon and back is not anything new. On PC, less performant chips are sold for a lower price, it is putting separate chips in separate bins. TSMC is not going to go through the trouble of making wafers (by themselves costly) and end up eating the loss because someone, somewhere did not pay attention to decades worth of data on how increasing clocks reduces yield. Same way assembly plants did not eat the loss when Microsoft did not do their homework on the 360.

On console, OEM's have usually clocked products lower because you do not have bins. All chips have to function at the required clock speed, fit the thermal envelope and fit within a power profile. It is Microsoft or Sony that will eat the loss. This is why you had testing and steppings, essentially these companies trying to work out issues before these SOC's went into mass production.

They knew. And they didn't care will X360 have overheating issues or not. There is a book about it i think. Anyway :

www.theguardian.com

The truth about the Xbox 360

A hurried launch, a desire to win the console war and design compromises lay behind the 'red ring of death' debacle that cost Microsoft $1.15bn

The warning signs were present even before Microsoft shipped any machines. In August 2005, as Microsoft was gearing up production, an engineer said: "Stop. You have to shut down the line." When production results are really off-kilter, stopping a line and tracing a problem back to its roots is the answer. But in this case, the decision was made to carry on.

Nobody listened to that engineer, apparently because console launches are always hurried affairs. Yields generally start low. As the manufacturers analyse data and tighten controls on each assembly step, they learn how to drive the yields up.
 

MrFox

VFX Rendering Pipeline Developer
Verified
Jun 8, 2020
1,435
The best reason to have some shipped by air is because the production is continuous, so they ship the first batches by boat, and they can also ship the last weeks of production before the launch date by air, which ends up the maximum possible consoles at launch for the lower possible cost.

I think they always did that with every console launch?
 

DavidDesu

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
5,718
Glasgow, Scotland
i was about to say lol.


im going back and forth about getting digital, i have to look at all my disk games and see which ones i actually still want to play. to decide. gonna be interesting come tomorrow if price is finally revealed(i hope so) lol
If the digital was something like £150 cheaper I might just go for it but I doubt it. I value having a Blu-ray and UHD Blu-ray player onboard, plus I have a few big PS4 games on disc (although I do plan on going digital for most of my purchases going forward).
 

platocplx

2020 Member Elect
Member
Oct 30, 2017
36,072
If the digital was something like £150 cheaper I might just go for it but I doubt it. I value having a Blu-ray and UHD Blu-ray player onboard, plus I have a few big PS4 games on disc (although I do plan on going digital for most of my purchases going forward).
I do value that too even though i havent bought a movie on Blu-ray in years might make me get some at least movies i really like. i wish digital got better where you could get the blu-ray quality and not just streamed but having the video saved locally.
 

bbq of doom

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,606
I think they marked the X price as an estimated retail price in the leak by brad sams? Thats what I think someone on KFX or some other podcast said at least, I cant remember where I heard it. Because the S was the only one with a RRP designation.

Either way, I wouldnt take that as the final word on the X pricepoint, even if they have that page now. Still expecting some flexibility on price. 499 is the same as the One X I think, which was already a premium price. 399 is the classic console price in a way, going by previous experiences in the market, and Im not surprised if Microsoft actually is ready to go for a 399 rrp for the X, and not just match Sony at 449.

They are literally advertising it at that price. It would be unprecedented and highly improbable for them to change it after all of this has been set.
 
Mar 8, 2018
1,161
Could be $499/$429. It's not that much more separation from $499/449, but it appears like more. It's a price with an easier upsell compared to $499/$399, but it's also far enough away that you feel like you're getting some kind of savings.