Biden will release all available vaccine doses in break from Trump administration policy of holding back stock for second dose

[Lumination]

People not reading the OP/thread and just react with takes in the contrary might have worked out the last 4 years, but....

Edit: Quoting this excellent post for the new page:

This is good, and I trust this admin to help coordinate vaccinations state-by-state. There have been a number of articles over the last 2 weeks about how getting that initial vaccination out to as many people as possible cna help control spread.

New data favour administering COVID-19 vaccines as fast as possible, not reserving doses

Yet some provinces – including Ontario – are planning to keep half of their initial shipments in the freezer in case the vaccine supply chain breaks down

www.theglobeandmail.com

Right now we're in a race against the clock with this new more contagious variant. Sadly the ~13 days it takes for the Biden admin to get into office and officially change policy is just time for it to spread.

The Mutated Virus Is a Ticking Time Bomb

There is much we don’t know about the new COVID-19 variant—but everything we know so far suggests a huge danger.

www.theatlantic.com

ffs, I had posted a complex update to my post about this with multiple articles and fucking hit cmd w instead of cmd t and deleted the whole fucking update before writing it.

Gist of the update is that we are in a race against the clock with potential vaccination and a lot of leading experts on vaccine deployment, including Scott Gottlieb, Canadian experts, and othr international experts are recommending this as the best approach.

Click to shrink...

 

[cyba89]

yeah, I think a lot of people are :quell shock: not reading the OP. This isn't the British plan, its a distribution plan.

Click to shrink...

This has nothing to do with people not reading the OP but with trusting manufacturing and distribution will be fast enough for everyone to still get their second dose on time.

 

[pulsemyne]

Uk is doing and other countries are also considering it. The idea is that you basically spread as much partial immunity as possible to slow down the rate of infections and keep medical systems from being overwhelmed. It also allows you time to stock up for second shots. Also bear in mind that those who got corona virus in the trials after a first shot did not go on to develop serious symptoms, so while you might still get ill it may not be to a serious effect.

 

[Volimar]

Biden already announced plans to use the DPA to ramp up production. I'm not worried.

 

[The Albatross]

Joe "Listen to the science" Biden will in fact, not listen to the science.

Those first shots need a second shot, Biden.

Click to shrink...

ffs please read before hot takes

New data favour administering COVID-19 vaccines as fast as possible, not reserving doses

Yet some provinces – including Ontario – are planning to keep half of their initial shipments in the freezer in case the vaccine supply chain breaks down

www.theglobeandmail.com

Administering the vast majority of Canada's COVID-19 vaccine doses right away would avert significantly more coronavirus infections than reserving half of the country's allotment as second doses for the first recipients, according to new modelling from researchers at the University of Toronto.

Click to shrink...

Dr. McGeer said that fact only became clear in the past week or two, as Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna released data from their late-stage clinical trials showing the first dose conferred relatively strong protection against COVID-19 disease, at least in the short run.

Both vaccines are given as two injections either 21 or 28 days apart. In Moderna's case, the vaccine was 50.8-per-cent efficacious in the two weeks after the first dose, and 92.1-per-cent efficacious after 14 days from the first dose, but before the second jab.

Click to shrink...

The second dose, Dr. McGeer and other experts agree, is crucial to ensuring immunity lasts as long as possible. They say everyone should get the second dose on schedule, but if supply issues delay that injection by a week or two, it shouldn't hamper how well the vaccines work.

Ashleigh Tuite, an epidemiologist at U of T's Dalla Lana School of Public Health who worked on the new modelling, said she and her colleagues projected that frontloading vaccine doses would avert between 34 and 42 per cent more symptomatic coronavirus infections, compared with a strategy of keeping half the shipments in reserve.

Click to shrink...

This is an important article and it's behind a paywall for most, but because this is about public health I think it's more important to get around the paywall using archive. mods can disagree with me and I'll edit my post, please don't ban me for it I'll just edit it ... I'm placing the importance of public health higher than the importance of forum etiquite

https://archive.is/ZpQGF#selection-1875.0-1879.249

The Mutated Virus Is a Ticking Time Bomb

There is much we don’t know about the new COVID-19 variant—but everything we know so far suggests a huge danger.

www.theatlantic.com

All this means that the speed of the vaccine rollout is of enormous importance. There are already worrisome indicators of slow rollout. Vaccination of a broad population, not vaccines in and of themselves, saves lives, and epidemics are fought with logistics and infrastructure. We should put every bit of energy, funding, and relentlessness into vaccinating as many people as possible as quickly as possible.

Meanwhile, the United States was reportedly planning to hold back half the vaccine it has in freezers as a hedge against supply-chain issues, and some states may be slowed down by murky prioritization plans. Scott Gottlieb—the former FDA chief and a current board member of Pfizer—has argued that the U.S. should also go ahead with vaccinating as many people as possible right now and trust that the supply chain will be there for the booster. Researchers in Canada—where some provinces decided to vaccinate now as much as possible without holding half in reserve, and will administer the booster with future supplies—estimate that this type of front-loading can help "avert between 34 and 42 per cent more symptomatic coronavirus infections, compared with a strategy of keeping half the shipments in reserve." (Note that this strategy, which is different from the one the United Kingdom just announced it will adopt in prioritizing the first dose, does not even necessarily involve explicitly changing booster timing protocols in order to maximize vaccination now; it just means not waiting to get shots into arms when the vaccines are currently available.) These were already important conversations to have, but given the threat posed by this new variant, they are even more urgent.

Click to shrink...

 

[prophetvx]

Seems like there is pretty mixed scientific opinion on this. Ultimately, the major concern is that there is no evidence to suggest that someone vaccinated won't still shed the virus if they contract it, although it appears you are obviously at your most contagious when having symptoms.

It makes sense that more people even partially vaccinated should in theory slow the spread of the virus, ultimately making it easier to contact trace or get it back under control. In countries where the virus is somewhat under control, slow-rolling it makes more sense, in places like the UK or the US that calculation becomes much more complex.

I guess in 6 months time we'll find out who was right. Ultimately the bigger challenge is just convincing people to actually take it.

 

[pulsemyne]

Also people will still get a second shot in the UK just not within the 21 or 28 days...maybe. It all depends on supply. They will still get it though.

 

[Gaf Zombie]

The strategy makes sense.

My only hope is that people don't get comfortable and become even more lax with their social distancing due to more people getting that first shot.

In any case, it's refreshing that we'll soon have leadership that listens to the experts.

 

[The Albatross]

Dr. Fauci advises against the British approach of delaying a second dose of vaccine.

www.nytimes.com

Click to shrink...

This is not the same thing.

As Canada and some EUropean countries are doing, the schedule is still the same, but the vaccine dose that would be "reserved" for you and sitting in a freezer for those 30 days is released to someone else.

Also the fact that Fauci is chief medical advisor for Biden and on the transition team for vaccine deployment makes me think he's not contradicting him.

 

[Fatoy]

Like a few people keep pointing out, the fact that a lot of countries are taking this approach suggests that they have faith that production capacity is already being demonstrably scaled up. This would not be happening if vaccine supply was likely to remain tightly constrained for months to come.

 

[ViewtifulJC]

This is something the former commissioner of the FDA has been begging for since December.

 

[Joe]

Smart move. Get these out there door, this is a supply chain move, not a vaccination move. You can tell which people in our government actually read shit, and which people in this forum can't.

 

[Turnbuckle]

From what I've read and heard on the news (NPR this morning most recently) this is the best approach. I hardly doubt Biden is just firing from the hip here. Of course, this is all based on the idea that production/distribution drastically ramps up and people can get their booster within a reasonably effective timeframe.

 

[Seesaw15]

First Page crew continues to not read OP.

 

[Astronut325]

Yes. Fully on board with this. The science and logic support this move.

 

[mute]

Are we even administering every vaccine we can at the moment? (I don't know, curious) Adding more to the pile doesn't seem like it will make the situation worse, just not sure if this is going to speed things up or not.

 

[Cerulean_skylark]

I follow a lot of people who post a lot of science on this issue, and i've seen a lot of support for 50% protection of more people than 95% protection of half that amount.
It's a good move that will help. we NEED to alleviate hospital admissions. Overcrowding of hospitals WILL kill more people than COVID alone.

 

[BringBackSonics]

I agree with this, you have some in the science/medicine community saying 6 million at 50% will do more to stop/slow Covid than 3 million at 90%

Opinion: Specialists Back Single-Dose Vaccine Strategy for COVID-19 (includes Ruanne Barnabas)

globalhealth.washington.edu

 

[KingM]

Are we even administering every vaccine we can at the moment? (I don't know, curious) Adding more to the pile doesn't seem like it will make the situation worse, just not sure if this is going to speed things up or not.

Click to shrink...

Iirc, a lot of that is due to poor distribution and access at the moment. Which Biden and his team will, hopefully, improve

 

[honavery]

Are we even administering every vaccine we can at the moment? (I don't know, curious) Adding more to the pile doesn't seem like it will make the situation worse, just not sure if this is going to speed things up or not.

Click to shrink...

We are absolutely not administering every vaccine out there. Not even close.

Right now it is at 29%.

More Than 400 Million Shots Given: Covid-19 Tracker

Bloomberg counted up the shots administered in 132 countries and 59 U.S. states and territories

www.bloomberg.com

 

[mute]

Iirc, a lot of that is due to poor distribution and access at the moment. Which Biden and his team will, hopefully, improve

Click to shrink...

I hope so.

 

[The Albatross]

This thread is as good an example as any of how populism and disinformation spreads faster than information. That we're 3 pages in and there's still this abundance of predictably anti-biden hot takes and "I heard we should to the opposite" with no context, no links, etc., while posts with information are generally ignored to get your anti-biden hot take in ... is just .. infuriating in this communty.

Follow these steps:

1) Read the thread title
2) Click the link in the OP, scan it
3) Click the subsequent links discussing the latest recommendations by scientists and health experts
4) Consider whether to post a hot take or not. Maybe you disagree with the approach and have good reason to, okay, save the hot take and then post why you have good reason to disagree with it, ideally with some link to further context.

 

[lt.dinh]

Joe "Listen to the science" Biden will in fact, not listen to the science.

Those first shots need a second shot, Biden.

Click to shrink...

Was the rush to post worth it?

 

[Senator Toadstool]

According to this it's 52% which I'd say isn't all that great

Covid-19: Pfizer vaccine efficacy was 52% after first dose and 95% after second dose, paper shows

The Pfizer and BioNTech covid-19 vaccine may provide some early protection, starting 12 days after the first dose, the peer reviewed results of a phase III trial have found. The study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine ,1 found that vaccine efficacy between the first and second...

www.bmj.com

I hope they have the logistical data to know that the production can keep up

Click to shrink...

50% percent was the mark for approving the vaccine and is equivalent to the flu shot which greatly stops the spread of that virus. Multiple countries are doing it and I assume most have had consultations with the companies and medical experts. I might delay more until I know more but I literally stay at home, always wear a mask (literally have not missed a singled time since march when out in public) until I know production will ramp up (which the new bill should help).

 

[LProtagonist]

What happens if you get your 2nd shot but miss the 3-4 weeks after and get it like 5-8 weeks after? I can't seem to find that.

 

[The Albatross]

Are we even administering every vaccine we can at the moment? (I don't know, curious) Adding more to the pile doesn't seem like it will make the situation worse, just not sure if this is going to speed things up or not.

Click to shrink...

Initial rollout was way, way way behind schedule. Trump Admin projected 20m vaccination by Jan 1, and we were at 2m vaccinations by then. Thankfully in the last week things have sped up and we're now at something like 6.2m vaccinations as of a couple days ago. States desperately needed more funding for coordination, and thankfully that's come.

The Biden Administration, though, will be much more active than the Trump Admin. Not withstanding, Mike Pence, the Coronavirus Task Force Chair, has been huddled in a bunker as right wing neonazis have been hunting him for the past 48 hours...

 

[bluexy]

I agree with this, you have some in the science/medicine community saying 6 million at 50% will do more to stop/slow Covid than 3 million at 90%

Opinion: Specialists Back Single-Dose Vaccine Strategy for COVID-19 (includes Ruanne Barnabas)

globalhealth.washington.edu

Click to shrink...

It also bears repeating -- this doesn't mean one or the other. Those "6 million at 50%" are still going to get that second shot, likely just as fast as with the other plan. It's just that we aren't going to intentionally hold back reserves specifically for the intention of ensuring those second shots. This enables a much faster and efficient rollout, removing a huge and significant barrier in getting vaccinations where they need to go.

 

[SpottieO]

The amount of ERA that just read the title and ignore the actual OP is just 🤦🏽‍♂️

 

[tobascodagama]

What happens if you get your 2nd shot but miss the 3-4 weeks after and get it like 5-8 weeks after? I can't seem to find that.

Click to shrink...

This wasn't part of any of the vaccine studies, so nobody knows.

 

[XMonkey]

If the supply chain can be relatively guaranteed so that the second doses are available around the prescribed second dose timeline then I'm ok with this. If not, ehhh, dunno.

Right now it feels like we have more vaccine than people willing (or access) to take it. Solve that issue first.

 

[BringBackSonics]

I agree with this, you have some in the science/medicine community saying 6 million at 50% will do more to stop/slow Covid than 3 million at 90%

Opinion: Specialists Back Single-Dose Vaccine Strategy for COVID-19 (includes Ruanne Barnabas)

globalhealth.washington.edu

Click to shrink...

OP, can we get this link threadmarked?

 

[SapientWolf]

ffs please read before hot takes

New data favour administering COVID-19 vaccines as fast as possible, not reserving doses

Yet some provinces – including Ontario – are planning to keep half of their initial shipments in the freezer in case the vaccine supply chain breaks down

www.theglobeandmail.com

This is an important article and it's behind a paywall for most, but because this is about public health I think it's more important to get around the paywall using archive. mods can disagree with me and I'll edit my post, please don't ban me for it I'll just edit it ... I'm placing the importance of public health higher than the importance of forum etiquite

https://archive.is/ZpQGF#selection-1875.0-1879.249

The Mutated Virus Is a Ticking Time Bomb

There is much we don’t know about the new COVID-19 variant—but everything we know so far suggests a huge danger.

www.theatlantic.com

Click to shrink...

You can read it incognito.

Vaccinations are currently going too slowly to make a major impact on the spread of the virus and the projected deaths. So it is imperative that the government finds a way to quickly and safely ramp up the inoculations or it will be too little, too late for hundreds of thousands of Americans. They should let the data guide their decisions. States where the virus is spreading completely unchecked may need even more drastic measures to turn things around.

 

[LProtagonist]

This wasn't part of any of the vaccine studies, so nobody knows.

Click to shrink...

I mean, can we determine anything about that based on how other multi-dose vaccines work?

 

[Senator Toadstool]

What happens if you get your 2nd shot but miss the 3-4 weeks after and get it like 5-8 weeks after? I can't seem to find that.

Click to shrink...

hasn't been studied but we should know in a few months. you like will increase you're immunity though just maybe not as much. still will help control the spread and likely greatly reduce symptomatic cases

 

[Rockets]

uh these vaccine need two doses lol

 

[LProtagonist]

I just feel, as someone forced to teach in person every day and therefore put at risk, that I want to get the full benefits of immunization. Same for health care workers and grocery store workers and others who have to be around other people and have no choice about it.

 

[Rhowm]

This thread is as good an example as any of how populism and disinformation spreads faster than information. That we're 3 pages in and there's still this abundance of predictably anti-biden hot takes and "I heard we should to the opposite" with no context, no links, etc., while posts with information are generally ignored to get your anti-biden hot take in ... is just .. infuriating in this communty.

Follow these steps:

1) Read the thread title
2) Click the link in the OP, scan it
3) Click the subsequent links discussing the latest recommendations by scientists and health experts
4) Consider whether to post a hot take or not. Maybe you disagree with the approach and have good reason to, okay, save the hot take and then post why you have good reason to disagree with it, ideally with some link to further context.

Click to shrink...

I'm gonna do my part and quote this , in the hopes that enough people read and understand it.

 

[XMonkey]

I mean, can we determine anything about that based on how other multi-dose vaccines work?

Click to shrink...

It's tricky. The two vaccines in question here are mRNA type and they're both the first of those kind to be approved for human use so we don't really have a good comparison to fall back on. We have given mRNA vaccines to animals in the past, but I'm not familiar with how those were dosed.

 

[DoubleTake]

The inability of humanity to read more than 256 characters depresses me so. Actually read the OP and numerous informative posts in here people...

 

[CrazyDude]

uh these vaccine need two doses lol

Click to shrink...

Yeah, but one dose is enough to have the same effect has a flu vaccine and start slowing the spread of the virus if enough people get it. The pace we are going now isn't fast enough for it to have an effect on the spread.

 

[ty_hot]

If the difference is 70% instead of 95%, then in the short term it helps saves a lot of lives. The question is: how will this affect the long term (herd immunity)? Because if we get like 80% of the people with a 70% immunization that that will still leave 44% (20% + 30% of 80%) of the population susceptible to the virus which is still enough for a lot of deaths and will leave hospitals full.

It would be nice to know how the efficacy increases if you take the second shot, say, 2-3 months after the first one.

Right now it all boils down to some calculations regarding total death count and at which point it will be safe to completely reopen the economy.

 

[DeathbyVolcano]

uh these vaccine need two doses lol

Click to shrink...

read the fucking thread.

 

[Steel]

There are too many moving parts here. Having vaccines stuck in storage can back-up the whole supply chain given the restrictions for its storage, so I could see it being better to get it out the door to free up room.

 

[Rockets]

Yeah, but one dose is enough to have the same effect has a flu vaccine and start slowing the spread of the virus if enough people get it. The pace we are going now isn't fast enough for it to have an effect on the spread.

Click to shrink...

The messaging until has now been we should take two doses in order to get the 95% efficacy. Changing the messaging now would be incredibly risky especially with how hesitant a lot of people seem to be with the vaccine.

Also it's not really rooted in the science to just halve the doses like this. FDA commissioner said it best:

"Suggesting changes to the FDA-authorized dosing or schedules of these vaccines is premature and not rooted solidly in the available evidence. Without appropriate data supporting such changes in vaccine administration, we run a significant risk of placing public health at risk, undermining the historic vaccination efforts to protect the population from COVID-19"

Click to shrink...

read the fucking thread.

Click to shrink...

follow the fucking science.

 

[MadScientist]

As an immunologist and scientist, I don't know why all these articles are discussing delaying that second dose to be able to dose more people with one dose. Could dosing as many people as possible and worry about second dose later save lives? Maybe, but these decisions should be science and evidence based. Just like how everyone trusts the efficacy and safety of these vaccines...which were based on good scientific observations. There is not good clinical data with these vaccines to just give out as much primary doses we can and figure out the booster dose later. People are making hypotheses based on previous vaccines and science. Until that hypothesis is tested (in people), we shouldn't just go delaying that second dose! That second booster dose is so important to solidify one's immunity. It would be one thing if we didn't have enough vaccines. That's not the case. Plenty of vaccine, just logistically the government (local/state/national) aren't dosing enough people quickly enough. It's crazy the national guard hasn't been mobilized to assist states in dosing as many people per day as possible!

 

[cyba89]

Yeah, but one dose is enough to have the same effect has a flu vaccine

Click to shrink...

This is not sufficiently researched yet.

 

[Precious Tritium]

What happens if you get your 2nd shot but miss the 3-4 weeks after and get it like 5-8 weeks after? I can't seem to find that.

Click to shrink...

Based on what I read with the UK extending the period, they aren't entirely sure as the vaccine was only tested with second dose being used in the 3 week window.

 

[nekkid]

Didn't Fauci just criticise the UK for doing exactly this?

Edit: actually, didn't Biden say the same thing?!

 

[Trup1aya]

This is incredibly risky if production doesn't ramp up fast enough...

And the more first doses issued, the more urgent it'll be to speed up production of second doses.

I don't think this is a good idea. Does anyone know of clinical studies are currently being performed with a larger window between doses? This decision shouldn't be left up to someone with no background In immunology

 

[Foltzie]

I posted this in an edit to my earlier post, but generally, this is the direction that major advisors are suggesting, that vaccine deployment will be much more effective the more people get that initial shot, versus the more people who get both shots. Getting more people initially vaccinated can flatten the curve quicker than getting fewer people completely vaccinated, because there's less community spread after that initial vaccination.

Click to shrink...

I'm not seeing a single epidemiologist in those articles suggesting that folks should only get once vaccine. The entire Atlantic article doesn't seem to have a single expert quote.

The suggestions seem to be based on reasonable assumptions, that some protection is better than none and that manufacturing will keep up so its worth the risk, but these aren't dispositive.

This thread is as good an example as any of how populism and disinformation spreads faster than information. That we're 3 pages in and there's still this abundance of predictably anti-biden hot takes and "I heard we should to the opposite" with no context, no links, etc., while posts with information are generally ignored to get your anti-biden hot take in ... is just .. infuriating in this communty.

Follow these steps:

1) Read the thread title
2) Click the link in the OP, scan it
3) Click the subsequent links discussing the latest recommendations by scientists and health experts
4) Consider whether to post a hot take or not. Maybe you disagree with the approach and have good reason to, okay, save the hot take and then post why you have good reason to disagree with it, ideally with some link to further context.

Click to shrink...

The CNN article itself shows the policy isn't clear. Is it, release the vaccines quickly to get 1 shot in and assume the supply chain will get shot 2 in a reasonable timeframe, or is it get more folks 1 shot and figure out the 2 second later.

The former is reasonable (even if it has a little risky), the later is debated heavily and does not have wide support. I would advocate its likely a bad idea for some of the older at risk population.