Harris vs. Pence is next week, and then each week after that there is a Trump vs. Biden debate. The next Presidential Debate is a Town Hall format.
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Biden up 13 points in first post debate poll; 53 to 29 percent say he won
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That's been my hope. I hope the debates moving forward having more effective moderation will have similar effect.
This is by memory so I could definitely be wrong, but I think her biggest lead was around the grabbing the pussy moment, and I think at that time she barely got to double digits. I don't think it was ever above 11%.
I think she lost what she gained with the Comey bullshit and it went back to the 4-6% range.
It will probably be similarly close this time. Trump will get enough to keep it within 5% of the swing states. It will come down to turnout.
Yeah, I just don't understand what purpose there is for him to do another two debates. He's got the perfect out too, 'Trump doesn't respect the rules of the debate, he doesn't attempt to answer the questions, there is clearly no point to the second debate. If Donald can show he can follow the rules, we'll talk about a third.' Boom, power play, controlling the conversation and tapping into popular opinion of how the debates went to get out of a potential bad showing at two more and then you can focus on campaigning, especially in key states.
But I'm sure he'll still do them anyway. Because why do something that makes sense.
Yes. Biden's lead is notably larger than Clinton's because in addition to the raw value being at least as good and often way better, he is reliably above 50% with under 10% undecided voters (often 5% undecided or less). Clinton was regularly up 6-8 points, but she was also up 6-8 points with a value of 45-48% and 10-15% undecided voters.
Also, I should note, this isn't factoring in that polling methodology has changed. After 2016, pollsters re-weighted by education (specifically increasing the number of non-college educated white voters), which if we applied that weighting to 2016 results, explained the 2-4 points gain Trump made in several swing states. This has been done across almost all polls since 2016. So in addition to having higher raw values than Clinton, and a wider margin, Biden is also doing so with a polling system that is stacked against him. If this were 2016 weighted, Biden would be up reliably 11-15 points.
Just to be clear, that's still roughly 1 in 5, which is a better chance than rolling a die and getting the number you want. It's still good news, but it doesn't mean he has no chance of winning. So yes - vote!
He needs to be CRUSHED! Even if a fucking time traveler came back to tell me Biden doesn't need my vote to win I would still vote to bury Trump even further.
A lot of people don't realize this. You don't need to add 5 points to Trump in blue wall states, it's already been factored in.
Biden is going to win by a landslide.
Those odds are also accounting for him tightening the race before the election. If it was held today his odds would drop to below 10%
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Agreed, and it's important to note that 538's model doesn't account for election interference, which Trump will try in some form. Luckily, if we beat him badly, it will be much harder for him to claim election fraud and take it to the Supreme Court. If the election is close enough like 2000, he just might steal it.
It's actually around 15%. In addition to education weighting to account for 2016, Nate has a "deluxe" formula and one of the things it does is assume that the race will tighten the further out it is from election day . You can see it as an option in the Senate forecast, but in the presidential it's baked in and not muteable.
If you look at the Trump victory maps left, they are increasingly outlandish. Like winning NH, Maine, Michigan, Arizona, and North Carolina is one of them. Yes, it is possible 1-2 of those will go red, but all of them? LOL
Yes. This notion of Trump having an "electoral advantage" where we need to add 2-3+ points to his polling doesn't square with reality because pollsters already adjusted for that "advantage" from 2016--which was mostly that undecided voters took a chance on him and non-college educated whites were quite a bit more enthusiastic for him than anticipated.
He says etc! Meaning there are definitely other things that prove he had a great debate!
Like all the meme's he's in! Sure they're unanimously negative, but it's the exposure that counts!
Not to put a damper on the thread, but Change Research has had a high average error. FiveThirtyEight rates them as a C-. I would wait for more polls before making any conclusions.
That sort of landslide is not possible in today's America. But a 350 plus EV win is not out of the question at all.
Probably so. Reagan's 1980 and 1984 campaigns were buoyed by two wildly different scenarios. This would be closer to 1980, except Trump is a much bigger piece of shit than Jimmy Carter ever, ever was, and things are more wildly polarized now. Biden's not going to get 400+ EVs, because there's no way he cracks open the deep Republican deathgrip on the Midwest and Southern states they routinely win, but 300+ would be likely with these numbers.
BEHOLD AS MIDNIGHT JON'S EYES BEGIN TO GLOW AND THEY PROCEED TO EXPOUND THAT ACTUALLY THIS IS MAYBE A 1-2% SHIFT FROM THE NATIONAL/STATE POLLS FROM HAPPENING
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RCP has historic graphs, even if their polling average is slightly Republican skewing by a point or two and noises in general. It is one of the better resources to keep from buying into a bunch of incorrect talking points that creep up about past elections.
There's like 10 legitimate swing states each cycle. There's always a handful of tipping point states, but there's really a whole bunch of states that could flip based on realistic outcomes. The maps where Trump barely wins the Popular Vote are wildly different than the one we're looking at now.
But...but..but...THE SKY IF FALLING!!!
It's an easy comparison to make of an actual adult vs. a petulant man-child.
It's an easy comparison to make of an actual adult vs. a petulant man-child.
im not a native speaker but uhh "i won the debate big" is not correct English right..? sounds so awkward to me.
i wonder if i speak/write better english as a hobby than the American President... i know how to spell Marine Corps at least.
i wonder if i speak/write better english as a hobby than the American President... i know how to spell Marine Corps at least.
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Reagan won 49 states in 1984. That's not happening. However, look at the EC map Midnight Jon posted, 413 electoral votes with Biden winning Iowa, Texas, Georgia, and Ohio, plus all other swing states. That's his ceiling and the best possible night. Beyond that, it gets really tough, with states like Missouri, Alaska, South Carolina, etc. Just getting to that 413 would be a miracle and a historic beatdown in the post-partisan era, which Reagan was not part of.
VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE
VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE
VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE
VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE
VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE
FUCKING VOTE
VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE
VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE
VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE
VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE
FUCKING VOTE
Biden getting 400+ EVs is currently the most likely individual scenario per 538.
Now, that doesn't make it likely, but if you had to bet on a specific EV outcome, on the dot, betting 416 or 413 is currently your best bet.
I'm also absolutely thrilled that no one trusts polls anymore. It's a complete lack of statistical understanding that leads to this distrust, but it's still *objectively good*, because that distrust means they're going to go vote no matter what.
Yay mathematical illiteracy?
Yay mathematical illiteracy?
If 75% of those 2% went from Trump to Biden, and 25% went from Biden to Trump, that's a +1% swing for Biden. That's actually pretty massive within the margins we're talking about to win this election.
That's optimistic. In yesterday's voting thread, somebody said "I live in Georgia, so voting will never matter", while Georgia is literally the closest state right now in polling averages. If they paid any attention at all, they should be energized that their vote could be monumentally important given the presidential race and the Senate race.
Not even them, if this turns out to be the only debate.
It's pretty easy on ElectoralVote:
Today: https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct01.html
October 1st in 2016: https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Oct01.html
Their polling methodology is really basic (it's just an average of the last few polls in each state, so for some states that's a bit iffy) but it's an easy way to compare situations. The key difference to note between the years is on the right hand side, showing how many states are polling strongly for each party. Biden's votes are, largely, safer than Clinton's were.
Wow this is sad to look at, Hillary had a 3-9% advantage in Pennsylvania in the polls. And she lost it by ~2%. Polling was wrong by 11-5%. Hope that doesn't happen again.
This is biggest alpha on earth, the guy who's telling it like is, who has balls of steel, a vessel for god's plan, Jesus reincarnated, the cuck slayer?
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