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Betting time: How much will Spider-Man end up selling?
- Thread starter Deleted member 249
- Start date
First month: Between 2.5 and 3 mullion I guess.
Lifetime? Maybe double that? I could be lowballing.
Lifetime? Maybe double that? I could be lowballing.
What's the time horizon, and are you including the inevitable PS5 re-release?
If you're talking about PS4 within the first year or so, I'd pick the 5-10 million bucket (probably more like 7-9 million), but if we're doing longer term including a re-release, 10-15 million makes more sense.
If you're talking about PS4 within the first year or so, I'd pick the 5-10 million bucket (probably more like 7-9 million), but if we're doing longer term including a re-release, 10-15 million makes more sense.
OP
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That would be less than Horizon, Uncharted 4, and God of War (presumably).
Are you sure?
Anecdotal, but none of my friends (whom I would normally expecting to be hyping this up) are talking about it. It will surely do great, but there just isn't a whole lot of buzz in my circles. I won't be buying it until I'm done with Dragon Quest XI at the earliest, but eventually I'll get it. On topic, I'd say sales would be around the rest of the system's heavy hitters.
10 to 15. Don't underestimate the mass appeal of Spider-Man, let alone a Spidey game as well-produced and developed as this.
This game targets everything from the hardcore crowd to the grandmother buying a gift for her granddaughter crowd.
I only wish I could say the same for Dragon Quest XI.
This game targets everything from the hardcore crowd to the grandmother buying a gift for her granddaughter crowd.
I only wish I could say the same for Dragon Quest XI.
10-15 million is the absolute floor from what I see. But if it manages to score above 90 on Metacritic we could be seeing a 15-20million juggernaut giving The Last of Us (Sony's most successful first party title ever) a run for its money.
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Uncharted 4: 8.7 million as of our last update specific update, though it's higher than that by now judging by series sales increases
Horizon: 7.6 million
God of War: 5 million in the first month, though it's tracking faster than the other two IIRC
TLOU hit 17 million, but IIRC 9 million was PS3, and then later an additional 8 million on PS4.
You'll notice a common range here, which is why I went with 7-9 million for the first year or so.
I do think there's a potential for upside, but it's also a pretty tough Fall, so I'm staying conservative.
Our last update from someone in the know said it was tracking above Horizon, but below God of War, but pre-orders certainly aren't the end-all-be-all they once were.
10-15 million sounds absolutely too much, i think a good 5-10 mln which would still be a huge result.
PS4 is at the end of its lifecycle (1-2 years and then PS5), for sure it will keep selling even after PS5 comes out but at that point interest will start to fade, unless PS5 is a disaster like PS3 was at launch.
Not to mention rarely a Sony exclusive sell more than 10 million, cause the way Sony does the marketing is like "forget the past, hype is always on the next thing".
PS4 is at the end of its lifecycle (1-2 years and then PS5), for sure it will keep selling even after PS5 comes out but at that point interest will start to fade, unless PS5 is a disaster like PS3 was at launch.
Not to mention rarely a Sony exclusive sell more than 10 million, cause the way Sony does the marketing is like "forget the past, hype is always on the next thing".
15m by the end of March 2020 or 2021 seems likely.
Not sure if it will get a PS5 port or something that boosts the numbers further so I'll go with the 15-20m range.
Not sure if it will get a PS5 port or something that boosts the numbers further so I'll go with the 15-20m range.
i believe it will be the best selling PS4 exclusive, i don't think for his own merits entirely but it is launching at a time when superheroes and Spiderman one of the most among them, are extremely popular. Besides that the reviews are pretty positive and i expect a mid-lower 90 metacritic which will make the game hard to pass from hardcore gamers while the IP itself attract the more casuals.
Having said that, 10-15 or 15-20 is a hard choice, 10-15 is the safe bet and the one i ended up going for, but if a PS4 exclusive is going to reach 15-20, it is definitelly (and probably only) Spiderman. More than 20 is a realm i only see Nintendo best selling exclusives reaching tho.
Having said that, 10-15 or 15-20 is a hard choice, 10-15 is the safe bet and the one i ended up going for, but if a PS4 exclusive is going to reach 15-20, it is definitelly (and probably only) Spiderman. More than 20 is a realm i only see Nintendo best selling exclusives reaching tho.
Just a reminder on the best selling games on PS4 since launch, to put things in perspective
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_PlayStation_4_video_games
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_PlayStation_4_video_games
i really belive in the appeal of the Spiderman IP and this seems a game that reach the expectations set for this IP (tho doubt it surpasses them) but yeah no, Nintendo biggest IPs are unmatched and in the Switch they seem to be unleashed so far, there is almost no chance a PS4 exclusive ends up higher than all of the Nintendo biggest boys
I'll say 9 million without bundles. Obviously if they give the game to anyone who buys a PS4 at no extra cost, it will sell much better.
I took a look at that list. Looked at the numbers for Monster Hunter World in Japan compared to any other game. Hell any game in any other region. That disparity my god.
Also LMAO at the sales numbers for Killzone Shadow Fall/Knack if you want it easy just release a game during launch when everyone is starving for games I guess.
Gonna go big and say 15-20m. I think, if nothing else, it'll be an extremely enticing and popular bundle choice.
Yup, this thing is going to be huge, Nintendo stuff cant really compete they're just too stubborn to lower the price of their software, I mean I can buy Horizon for 1/3 price of Zelda, insane lol. Plus, I'm sure Sony will bundle this game until the end of the gen starting next year.
