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Betting Time Covid19 Edition: Will The Switch Get Near 200mil Lifetime?

NSW isn’t getting near 200mil, it’ll ship lifetime...

  • Well over 200mil!!!

    Votes: 28 3.0%

  • Never mind it will Ship Near/ just below 200mil

    Votes: 44 4.8%

  • Barely over 100mil

    Votes: 140 15.2%

  • Somewhere between 110mil-130mil

    Votes: 349 37.9%

  • Around DS/PS2 (150mil-165mil)

    Votes: 236 25.7%

  • Between 130 and 150 Million

    Votes: 123 13.4%
  • Total voters
    920
Tbone5189

Tbone5189

Succ-essor
Member
Mar 25, 2020
4,919
First of all before Blabbering about how pessimistic this is hear me out. Second off "Get Near" meaning an error of like 5% off. (So 190mil-210mil)

This is a scenario of how it can all come down If your going by a yearly breakdown with A longevity console.

NSW By Fiscal Years(currently 68.27mil)

Y17: 2.74mil
Y18: 15.05mil
Y19: 16.93mil
Y20: 21.03mil
Y21: 31.50mil (12.52mil so far)
Y22: 30.25mil
Y23: 24.50mil
Y24: 18.25mil
Y25: 13.25mil
Y26: 9.00mil
Y27+ 10mil Another few years

Total: A lot

Reference.......

Best selling consoles are

PS2: 160mil+
DS: 150mil+
PS4: 120mil-130mil (when it's all done)


Possible reasons why for such an achievement???

-Unified Hardware, more and more software than ever with great and better third party support

-Room For Software Price reductions In the form of Nintendo Selects: BotW/SMO $29.99 each maybe after 2023.

-Revisions: Specifically 2 More, with a Pro model and a new model (XL/Dock only/etc)

-Price Cuts for more longevity and advantage. No console has lasted this long ever and a price cut isn't happening before 2022. Ex: $129.99-$149.99 Lite / $229.99-$249.99 OG / Pro $299.99 (if it's higher at launch)

Your thoughts? Still not a believer of 100mil? If not "whats with you" said By Reggie


I can add more for context but we all know it isn't needed!!!! So say what's on your mind!!!!
 
Like the hat?

Like the hat?

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,579
I do think the series S is going to help switch stay viable longer if they get a "pro" or "advance" version out. However I'm expecting a lifetime closer to 125-130m
 
King Kingo

King Kingo

Banned
Dec 3, 2019
7,656
Slap as many mainline Pokemon games on the Nintendo Switch as possible with Pokemon Home connectivity. That's my personal advice.
 
jaymzi

jaymzi

Member
Jul 22, 2019
6,547
Be really interesting to see the effect of the covid situation returning to normal has on videogame sales.
 
Catalyst

Catalyst

Member
Oct 6, 2020
1,440
140M isn't an option so I didn't answer the poll.

EDIT: Now it's there, good.
 
Last edited:
Rouk'

Rouk'

Member
Jan 10, 2018
8,155
I think the main obstacle to the 200m lifetime goal is that Nintendo quickly stops making old consoles when a new one is out, unlike Sony. So once Switch 2 drops, Switch's sales will drop a lot.

I say 180m is the max it can get to, but DS/PS2-level is "reasonable"/more realistic
 
Aleh

Aleh

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,300
I honestly don't even know anymore. The sky is the limit but I could also see it stop at a safer spot like 130m. Anything goes.
 
Oregano

Oregano

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
22,878
On one hand it seems totally unrealistic.

On the other hand never doubt Tbone5189

I'm going to say 140m is looking realistic right now.
 
MisterSpo

MisterSpo

One Winged Slayer
Member
Feb 12, 2019
9,080
I've gone with DS/PS2 levels right now, but I think 200 million is easily in reach if Nintendo move away from the normal console model and instead stick to multiple iterations of Switch over a longer life cycle.
 

Deleted member 51691

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 6, 2019
17,834
Barely over 100M lol

Maybe if Nintendo prematurely launches Switch 2 like the Switch Pro thread would want
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Anything drastically over 150m would require them not putting out a successor until like 2026-2027, which I personally doubt.

I'm thinking somewhere between 140 and 170.
 
MatrixMan.exe

MatrixMan.exe

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,500
I think it can land somewhere between 125-140 million. Whether or not it happens is another question, especially taking into account momentum which obviously isn't going to be sustained. It's just a question of when that will start to dip and at what rate. Really interesting times ahead but yeah, somewhere in that range is very plausible.
 
Gartooth

Gartooth

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,440
I'll go with Switch outselling DS/PS2 to be the best selling gaming hardware of all time, but falling short of 200m.

I have no logical reason for that other than wanting to believe it can make it.
 
KuwabaraTheMan

KuwabaraTheMan

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,179
Yes, I think it has a strong chance of doing over 200m. Between a likely pro model next year and the Switch probably lasting at least 5 more years, it's going to have a real path there.
 
Menx64

Menx64

Member
Oct 30, 2017
5,774
I'll go with 150 < switch.

I don't think 200 is possible, but I'd bet it will pass both the DS and PS2.
 
E.T.

E.T.

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,035
Handheld devices sell well, especially Nintendo products. So I can easily see the Switch blow past the record. Covid is a prime opportunity for this massive sales bump to occur especially as we enter winter.
 
K Samedi

K Samedi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,990
I think with a 10 year plan it's possible. I voted above 200 million because 1) I'm optimistic by nature and 2) because I think that with different models and prices that cater to different audiences they can achieve massive sales over the next 5 to 6 years. They have a warchest of casual IP which they haven't fully used yet. I suspect they will focus on casual software for cheaper models and bigger games for the more expensive models. Having a unified platform has made a big difference in how they can properly concentrate on different audiences on one platform.
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Also I'm surprised you think there won't be a price cut next year OP, 2021 is likely the opportune time for one considering without it sales will likely be down YoY in several regions. They'll want the peak to be 2021 if possible.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658
NDS vs. Wii vs. PS4 vs. NSW Quarterly Shipments by FY (First 8.5 Years)

5tf6m5C.png


If they put out a solid Pro-Revision next year and target late Oct 2024 - March 2025 as the timeframe for what they consider a "Switch 2", then maybe. I think it hits ~30M this FY and next FY and then steady declines from there on out can carry it up to high 100M range (170-190M). Lot of uncertainty with that kind of range, so a more optimistic scenario maybe gets it over 200M.

If next year's Pro-revision is a mild one and they put out a "Switch 2" earlier than the timeframe above, then I'd guess its going to settle in right around 145M-160M.
 
Last edited:
Dragonyeuw

Dragonyeuw

Member
Nov 4, 2017
4,375
I don't see any console getting to DS/ PS2 numbers. I can see 130-140m based on how much longer they push the concept( with iterative models) before they outright replace it with something new.
 

Deleted member 63122

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 16, 2020
9,071
The Switch will reach 80-85 million at the end of this FY, with little bundles, no price cuts and only one new iteration ( Lite). PS4 had two iterations, price cuts (permanents and temporary) and a lot of bundling.While I don´t think the Switch can reach DS levels, 125-130 is basically a lock right now.
 
tiebreaker

tiebreaker

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,154
I guess it depends on how long they are supporting the console. If we are talking around 7 years, then my bet would be 120 to 130m.
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
I see three possible scenarios when it comes to longevity:

1) Switch 2- 2021
2) Switch Pro- 2021, Switch 2 2024
3) Much more powerful Switch Pro- 2021, Switch successor 2026

So for lifetime sales, it could go something like this:

1)
FY21 (this year): 32m
FY22: 20m
FY23: 10m
FY24+: 5m

Total: ~125m

2)
FY21: 32m
FY22: 30m
FY23: 25m
FY24: 18m
FY25: 12m
FY26+: 5m

Total: ~168m

3)
FY21: 32m
FY22: 32m
FY23: 26m
FY24: 20m
FY25: 16m
FY26: 12m
FY27: 8m
FY28+: 5m

Total: ~207m


Obviously all of these could be way off.
 

Deleted member 32005

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 8, 2017
1,853
If they do a price cut, a pro refresh, and have robust support for the back half (like BOTW2, Mario Odyssey 2, MK9 cross gen), I could maybe see that happening.

But next year and every subsequent year its going to lose momentum cause of 1) the COVID vaccine and 2) Next gen consoles.

That being said if they can get another BOTW like hit next year I could see that doing work, and a price drop would help big time.
 

lost7

Member
Feb 20, 2018
2,750
The moment Nintendo launches the Switch 2, I expect sales to plummet so I predict 130 mil
 
chrisPjelly

chrisPjelly

Avenger
Oct 29, 2017
10,496
100 mil is a hard lock, but any other milestones after that depends entirely if Nintendo is going to make further iterations of the Switch "family" or just flat out make a "Switch 2".
 
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