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Bernie Sanders surges into national lead and also leads among voters of color (in CNN poll).
- Thread starter UshioRulz
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I await the spring break memes again in march.
Though it wasn't really funny in 2016 when we needed young people to vote during the general.
He is definitely on the up. lol at single poll posters...this is significant because it illustrates, along with other numbers that Sanders is the candidate who is trending most upwards. Also, sure people would be happy if it was a poll that confirmed their own preference.
I would bet Yougov haven't called nearly as many races though, since they are a UK polling service that have only been around for the last 20 years, and probably been involved in calling US elections quite a bit less than that...
I would bet Yougov haven't called nearly as many races though, since they are a UK polling service that have only been around for the last 20 years, and probably been involved in calling US elections quite a bit less than that...
After seeing some of the crowds at recent rallies, we may not have to be as worried all things considered. Sanders is leading among younger voters by a large margin. It helps that he supports policies that seek to actively benefit younger generations as opposed to incremental systemic change which keeps things stagnant. Of course, I expect Republican fuckery come voting time like we saw in GA, NC, etc. in 2018.
Also, the younger voters helped in 2018 quite a bit! Good sign imo.
Sis why are you always pressed on ERA but normal in the discord?
Hillary v. Tula for Bernie's VP spot. I'd get the PPV.
I'm just going to assume that they're okay now, seeing as we're so close to the start of the primaries. (I mean, why else would a single poll thread stay up this long, right.)
They both matter and don't matter at the same time. They matter because there's likely a correlation between polling leaders, and candidates with a chance at taking states. But a national poll in itself, that rolls non-white voters into "voters of color," seems kind of irrelevant to me. For the same reasons Hillary won the popular vote but lost the general election, one can feasibly win the popular vote in a primary but lose the nomination. Start showing me some polls where Black voters are breaking for Bernie, and I'll begin to believe that Bernie has a chance at winning - otherwise the math on a state by state level doesn't look pretty for him.
Still can't see Bernie getting the nomination. He is the most 'dangerous' candidate to corporate media, special interests, money in politics, etc. Attacks against him, from Republicans and Democrats alike, will only increase.
I also wonder how many 'NeverBernie' voters are in there (at least in terms of primary voting). People that supported Clinton in 2016 and are poisoned against him. How will things consolidate? When options like Steyer, Yang, Klobuchar, and maybe Buttigieg get bounced, do their supporters migrate to another 'practical' centrist candidate or the Democratic Socialist?
I also wonder how many 'NeverBernie' voters are in there (at least in terms of primary voting). People that supported Clinton in 2016 and are poisoned against him. How will things consolidate? When options like Steyer, Yang, Klobuchar, and maybe Buttigieg get bounced, do their supporters migrate to another 'practical' centrist candidate or the Democratic Socialist?
See my above post! Younger voters are up by a lot compared to years prior.
The problem is that most pollsters dgaf about doing anything except national numbers and the occasional Iowa/NH poll, so people cling onto what we get. If we were getting more consistent polls out of Super Tuesday states like California Texas Minnesota etc it'd probably be much more interesting, but they probably aren't interested in wasting their time and money polling states that might not matter, and polling for candidates that probably won't be running by than.
I assume we'll see some folks who consider keeping Trump's dumb ass in office to be better than, say, healthcare for their friends and family or student loan debt forgiveness. A lot of people (see: white, rich) aren't affected personally by the policies put forward (or removed) by the current administration. Of course, there were a good amount of Clinton supporters that went for McCain over Obama in 2008, so it wouldn't be that surprising to see some lean towards Trump, if not specifically due to a fear of being taxed appropriately.
To me, Biden is worse than Bernie in the general. Trump and his media storm will eat him alive, and he will just use the same corrupt lines that he used in 2016. Then he will say "You are doing better now than during the Obama years? Why would you want to go back to that!". It is never about truth, it is about Trump trying to get you to feel what he wants you to, so like rational people know, con artist.
Outsourcing actually stayed the same or increased during the Trump years, so either candidate that is the nom just needs to focus on how Trump was a snake oil sellsman.
I understand why we're not getting state polls deep into the primary at the moment. But you can still do a national poll that gives enough of a demographic breakdown that you can make a worthwhile assessment at a state level. Maybe the article just does a bad job of summarizing the poll, but rolling all non-whites into "voters of color" is pretty weird - given that the metric is meaningless without knowing the ethnic breakdown of that arbitrary voting block.
So I'm not the only black man that supports Bernie?
People want tangibles and a push for economic equality. We won't be pacified with multicultural television/movie casts that so many want to tout as progress. You can't legislate away racism but you can pass a higher minimum wage and raise taxes and pass medicare for all or at the very least actually fight for those things.
People want tangibles and a push for economic equality. We won't be pacified with multicultural television/movie casts that so many want to tout as progress. You can't legislate away racism but you can pass a higher minimum wage and raise taxes and pass medicare for all or at the very least actually fight for those things.
One CNN-conducted poll has zero relevancy to CNN as a news org doing things such as promoting known white supremacists or hiring ex-Trump admin officials, for example. What a strange post.
Hillary : "nobody in my washington circle like him though"
Polls like this shows sanders is a top contender who has a lot of fans the establishment just dont get. Love to see it. Its not about the old guy. Its about the progressive values. Ask AOC
Polls like this shows sanders is a top contender who has a lot of fans the establishment just dont get. Love to see it. Its not about the old guy. Its about the progressive values. Ask AOC
People don't give a shit what a news org has done when it benefits their candidate
You're asking a lot of complicated questions. I don't think the Sanders to Bernie dropoff rate will be higher than usual, there's just a whole lot more Hillary Supporters than Sanders supporters among the active electorate.
Who flows to who after a candidate fades is not driven by ideology as much as some people seem to think. For most of the primary season Sanders/Biden shared supporters, and there's a strong case to be made that Biden's high favorables makes it easier for him to peel off supporters from other candidates.
538 sez no
Ah yes, Nate Silver, the bastion of all pollsters who has never been wrong lol
People should (and do?) give a shit about those things, though. People are very vocal about those issues. I'm not really certain what you're trying to say here.
Fox is trash but had incredible pollsters
CNNs pollsters are fine but separate from their garbage punditry.
Granted yes, they were dead wrong about Trump hehe
But the aggregate numbers still seem valid though
I personally don't think it should matter, but in terms of bullshitting the electorate with lies, Bernie wouldn't be impervious to those same tactics. Socialism, big government, raise the fuck out of your taxes, take away your healthcare, etc. Honestly, I think whomever wins the Democatic nominee, is a shoe in to win the General Election - so I'm not worried either way.
The voters of color thing is pretty dumb, I assume Sanders is doing well there because of the Latino vote being rolled into that as well as smaller demos like Arabs that go for him pretty hard.
Probably not but it won't be the same moment I could've been if it gets announced.
That's fair, yeah. I'm curious how things are going to look in the next few weeks.
Considering they gave Trump the best odds of winning, I would not say he was dead wrong.
Do you think polls done by Anderson Cooper? This has nothing to do with their horrible 24/7 news coverage . Y'all really have to stop with these sad gotcha attempts lol.
Why would Bernie pick someone who has the closest similar fanbase to his own supporters? Sanders/Warren makes no strategic sense and was never going to happen.
1) Nate Silver aggregates polls and models outcomes, he is not a pollster
2) Nate assigned a ~30% probability to Trump winning, significantly higher than other models at the time and spent the weeks leading up to the election on Twitter pointing out that Trump's chances of winning were severely underrated
3) the Comey letter created an environment where Clinton lost support immediately (picked up by the polls that still had her winning but in a more tenuous position) while undecided voters broke late for Trump (not picked up in the polls and the cornerstone of Nate's argument referred to by point 2)
4) why do we have to keep going over this is this my ironic hell
I seem to recall Hillary was set to win according to the sites all prognosi? Wasnt that what the whole hollaballo was about after election day?
Was this an issue before Bernie started surging in the polls, that you were bringing up when Biden was leading?
The "hollaballo" was that even liberals are massively innumerate and distort polls to match what they think should happen. 538 was saying Trump could win since the summer of 2016, and that if he won it would likely be on the back of an EC/EV split.
Innumerate people don't know how to mentally parse what it means for polls to have undecided and late-deciding voters. People are probably making the same mistake here, with most polls still having around 50% undecided. 25% support in a four or five person race with 50% undecided not counted on the topline numbers is not celebratory position for anyone.
They gave Trump a 28.6% chance. If you roll a dice and say that you think there's a 80+% chance it won't be a 4, and it ends up a four would you be wrong?
From 538 as of this moment:
Unless you are referring to Trump having the odds winning the Republican nomination, which in that case was correct.
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