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Oct 25, 2017
17,537
Anyone know what the general consensus is for why Warren support seems to have hit a wall?

I know in my home we love Bernie and of course will vote for whichever Democrat wins the nomination. I know for my household we soured on her a little bit when she couldn't answer questions on how she would pay for Medicare for All and then it appears that afterwards she backed away from Medicare for All entirely.

I'm sure others were similar but I can't really think of anything else she has done that turned me away.
She made the mistake of attempting to make Medicare 4 All actionable and everyone hated her for it
 

Euphoria

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,549
Earth
Warren's appeal is primarily to college educated, affluent white liberals. Some people who like her for her intelligence but are skeptical of big government programs got poached by Pete, while people who like economic progressivism solidified around Bernie since he's more radical.

Thanks for the quick response. Guess that makes some sense when you see how Buttigieg moved up. Obviously he ate away someone else's base.
 

jviggy43

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
18,184
How dare you lay this on me. This entire thread is filled with people saying Warren should drop out and you single me out because I say, as a woman, she shouldn't and you bring up Sanders is Jewish so you can accuse me of being antisemitic?

Is that your tactic to shut down anyone who supports Warren over Sanders? The fuck even is this? Look at how many people are saying my posts are disgusting or antisemitic because of something YOU brought up.
Single you out? I quoted one post and then you followed up with multiple posts to me telling me I said or inferred Warren should drop out when I didn't say that. If you would like me to drop it I will, I didn't think engaging you in this conversation was singling you out. I didn't accuse you of being anti semtic either. I think a lots happening and youre not really reading my posts clearly.

1. I never said warren should drop out (she is easily my number 2 and I like her)

2. I never accused you of being antisemtic. But you literally said he should drop out in order for him to support a woman (because women as you said it are under represented and largely discriminated against). But Bernie is Jewish and I think that matters for representation as well, and I don't think its a good idea to be trying to rank which group should drop out to help the other out in a race in the first place.

3. I'm not shutting down any one. I just think you should reconsider your position because its a bit tenuous and a little dismissive of the struggles of the Jewish community (I don't think this was your intention).

I'm more than happy to disengage if you would prefer and you can PM me if you want to discuss anything further. Or we can post here its totally up to you.
 
Oct 27, 2017
936
Warren seems like the one to me (from an outside perspective). Biden seems deeply flawed.

Why are they all old af?

One would think Warren is 'the one' if one spent all their time on ERA. The truth is in the numbers. Warren had a great few months in the polling when she had unsustainably good media coverage and none of the other candidates went on the attack against her. A better campaign and candidate would have taken full advantage of that momentum and rode it to Iowa.

Truth is that her new support was very soft and not 'true' the way Sanders and Biden have true support. The second she got a bad news cycle (which was going to happen eventually, there was no running from it) and candidates went on the offensive, ten full points vanished from her polling in an instant. Months later, she hasn't been able to recover. She just doesn't have the ability to weather criticism the way Sanders and Biden do, and they've had multiple bad news cycles. We can talk about if there's sexism at play, but the numbers demonstrate that she doesn't have long term viability. I'd worry greatly for her in a general election setting where every good press cycle comes with four bad ones.
 

Aztechnology

Community Resettler
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
14,145
Anyone know what the general consensus is for why Warren support seems to have hit a wall?

I know in my home we love Bernie and of course will vote for whichever Democrat wins the nomination. I know for my household we soured on her a little bit when she couldn't answer questions on how she would pay for Medicare for All and then it appears that afterwards she backed away from Medicare for All entirely.

I'm sure others were similar but I can't really think of anything else she has done that turned me away.
At some point, she became synonymous with being extreme on healthcare/taxes than Bernie without the same solidity of platform around healthcare (even though not accurate. She's referenced much more on the subject than Bernie amongst moderate/conservative people I know. This is anecdotal). Bernie I think has been seen to be very consistent. Outside that general perception of electability. It's been a bit of a curse. I think the only reason Biden has any real poll support is for that reason. It's that desperation for a candidate that can win vs the excitement of any real change.
 

Deleted member 7051

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,254
Warren's appeal is primarily to college educated, affluent white liberals. Some people who like her for her intelligence but are skeptical of big government programs got poached by Pete, while people who like economic progressivism solidified around Bernie since he's more radical.

So what does she need to do to pull ahead? Or is it a lost cause? I'm not even American so I don't have any actual say, but I desperately want her to win. A woman in the White House would change so much, but it seems like the consensus on this site at least is she should just give up, drop out and hope Sanders lets her work for him.

Which is frankly insulting but whatever.
 

Euphoria

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,549
Earth
She made the mistake of attempting to make Medicare 4 All actionable and everyone hated her for it

I can only speak for my home but I know when watching that debate I was hyping up Warren all day to my wife. When those Medicare for All questions came up about how she would fund it and she kept dodging my wife looked over at me and said "I don't like her. Why can't she just say yes or no?". I think shortly before that Bernie admitted to having to raise taxes and then tried to soften that news with cost savings on things like copays and stuff.

Either way it's still early and nobody is dropping out yet. Lots can still change.
 

Deleted member 82

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,626
It is an educated guess though. Biden generally performs better than Sanders does in polling. There was a SurveyUSA poll that dropped today which had Sanders running ahead of Biden by 2 points in the general election (+9 over Trump for Sanders, +7 for Biden) and it's literally the first high quality pollster I've seen in a long time to show a result like that. The CNN poll that this thread was started on shows the exact opposite.

In the three states that decided the 2016 election, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Sanders runs marginally better in Michigan GE polling, whereas Biden does several points better in Pennsylania and Wisconsin. Biden has a very small lead in Arizona polling as well, often considered an alternative to winning Wisconsin (generally considered the least reliable of those three states), that turns into an outright Trump lead when he's pit against Sanders or Warren. Same with the ever-controversial Florida - Biden wins by 2.7, Sanders ties. North Carolina, same story, similar overperformance by Biden.

North Carolina, Michigan and Arizona all feature high-profile Senate contests as well. The better the Democratic nominee does in those states, the likelier it is they carry the rest of the ticket.

I'm not saying this as if it's a definitive truth, I'm just pointing out that when people say Biden is more electable, they're not talking completely out of their ass. Yes, these are trial heats being conducted nine months out from the election, they're subject to ebb and flow. Biden could very well turn out to be a dud of a candidate, in fact it is one of the biggest things I fear about him as I do think he's the likeliest to win the primary, but it helps to try and understand the logic behind "Biden is the most electable" rather than just angrily kneejerk reacting to it. You don't even have to agree with it, but it's not based on nothing.

Regarding your last point, no, Biden doesn't support Medicare for All, but his healthcare plan is quite good. The most important element is it creates a strong public option, which would be the likeliest catalyst for us to move onto a single-payer plan eventually - I support M4A but I think we're still a good 5-10 years away from it being feasible, and Biden's plan would represent a significant step towards it. Biden also has a decent climate plan that often gets overlooked and made me breathe the biggest sigh of relief regarding his inevitability as a nominee, as I consider climate change to be a literal existential crisis that requires immediate action. Neither plan is as bold as Sanders or Warren's policies, but they are significant and the suggestion that Biden would simply be a return to the status quo is ignorant at best and disingenuous at worst.

Thank you for all this information. I'm not convinced that polling well against Trump will automatically translate to better chances at winning, but this definitely gives me more perspective.
 

RailWays

One Winged Slayer
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
15,678
Weird way of phrasing backed out but ok.
tbf she took a hit in the polls after publishing her m4a implementation plan, not when she later talked about a multi-year transition from a public option after getting slammed for trying to plot a specific m4a plan.

She would ultimately back off, but that was in response to her dropping numbers.
 

Krakatoa

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 29, 2017
3,093
If Bernie wins who will replace him in the senate? Is it the seat an easy win for the Dems?
 

Geoff

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,115
One would think Warren is 'the one' if one spent all their time on ERA. The truth is in the numbers. Warren had a great few months in the polling when she had unsustainably good media coverage and none of the other candidates went on the attack against her. A better campaign and candidate would have taken full advantage of that momentum and rode it to Iowa.

Truth is that her new support was very soft and not 'true' the way Sanders and Biden have true support. The second she got a bad news cycle (which was going to happen eventually, there was no running from it) and candidates went on the offensive, ten full points vanished from her polling in an instant. Months later, she hasn't been able to recover. She just doesn't have the ability to weather criticism the way Sanders and Biden do, and they've had multiple bad news cycles. We can talk about if there's sexism at play, but the numbers demonstrate that she doesn't have long term viability. I'd worry greatly for her in a general election setting where every good press cycle comes with four bad ones.

By that I meant, when I see her on TV, she looks head-and-shoulders above the rest of them. Tough, intelligent... even presidential. Looks younger than her 70 years in contrast to Biden and Sanders who look like they would struggle to make it through one term, let alone two.
 

cnorwood

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
3,345
All of the horse shit that has been happening these past few weeks has gotten me to donate twice. I will keep donating
 

gogosox82

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,385
So what does she need to do to pull ahead? Or is it a lost cause? I'm not even American so I don't have any actual say, but I desperately want her to win. A woman in the White House would change so much, but it seems like the consensus on this site at least is she should just give up, drop out and hope Sanders lets her work for him.

Which is frankly insulting but whatever.
At this point, she needs to win Iowa and probably NH. Don't think there is anything she can do to pull ahead until then.
 

Damaniel

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
6,536
Portland, OR
I'm fine with a Sanders presidency and would gladly vote for him, but I also understand that he'll get none of his agenda done (to be fair, Warren wouldn't get much of her agenda done either). Hopefully his supporters won't be too politically disillusioned once they come to that realization a couple years into a Sanders adminstration.

At this point, my main desire is to get Trump out of office and to overturn his agenda. I'll vote for anyone who can do that. A truly progressive agenda is a huge bonus, with the caveat that enacting it to a large degree is very unlikely.
 

alexiswrite

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,418
No discussion, but plenty of hand wringing. If only we could harness the power of the wringing!

Nuclear power step aside!

But yeah, if Bernie wins the primary then he deserves it and should win the general. I don't understand the tears about Bernie's potential success. It still needs to be said though that Biden is still way more likely to win.
 

Aztechnology

Community Resettler
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
14,145
It is an educated guess though. Biden generally performs better than Sanders does in polling. There was a SurveyUSA poll that dropped today which had Sanders running ahead of Biden by 2 points in the general election (+9 over Trump for Sanders, +7 for Biden) and it's literally the first high quality pollster I've seen in a long time to show a result like that. The CNN poll that this thread was started on shows the exact opposite.

In the three states that decided the 2016 election, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Sanders runs marginally better in Michigan GE polling, whereas Biden does several points better in Pennsylania and Wisconsin. Biden has a very small lead in Arizona polling as well, often considered an alternative to winning Wisconsin (generally considered the least reliable of those three states), that turns into an outright Trump lead when he's pit against Sanders or Warren. Same with the ever-controversial Florida - Biden wins by 2.7, Sanders ties. North Carolina, same story, similar overperformance by Biden.

North Carolina, Michigan and Arizona all feature high-profile Senate contests as well. The better the Democratic nominee does in those states, the likelier it is they carry the rest of the ticket.

I'm not saying this as if it's a definitive truth, I'm just pointing out that when people say Biden is more electable, they're not talking completely out of their ass. Yes, these are trial heats being conducted nine months out from the election, they're subject to ebb and flow. Biden could very well turn out to be a dud of a candidate, in fact it is one of the biggest things I fear about him as I do think he's the likeliest to win the primary, but it helps to try and understand the logic behind "Biden is the most electable" rather than just angrily kneejerk reacting to it. You don't even have to agree with it, but it's not based on nothing.

Regarding your last point, no, Biden doesn't support Medicare for All, but his healthcare plan is quite good. The most important element is it creates a strong public option, which would be the likeliest catalyst for us to move onto a single-payer plan eventually - I support M4A but I think we're still a good 5-10 years away from it being feasible, and Biden's plan would represent a significant step towards it. Biden also has a decent climate plan that often gets overlooked and made me breathe the biggest sigh of relief regarding his inevitability as a nominee, as I consider climate change to be a literal existential crisis that requires immediate action. Neither plan is as bold as Sanders or Warren's policies, but they are significant and the suggestion that Biden would simply be a return to the status quo is ignorant at best and disingenuous at worst.
Great post, thanks.
 

jviggy43

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
18,184
She will be eligible next election.

Bernie/Warren 2020
Warren/AOC 2024
AOC 2028
source.gif
 

sphagnum

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
16,058
So what does she need to do to pull ahead? Or is it a lost cause?

She has to pull off a win in Iowa, which would give her momentum and shift the media narrative in her favor since it would be a massive upset. She almost reached Biden's numbers at one point earlier on before her support started to splinter, but a victory might allow her to put the coalition back together by peeling off Bernie voters and demonstrating that Biden is vulnerable.

Short of that, she probably won't go anywhere unless Bernie suddenly drops out from another health scare or something.
 

iiicon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,917
Canada
Sanders/Tlaib 2020.

Because the democrat brand has been absolute dumpster fire garbage since the reagan days that there was no care in trying to prep a younger generation of politicans so Gen Xers got the leap frog and Millenial's didn't see anything until AOC had to take out the #2 in a new york primary that was by all means a sleeper.
I don't think this is it exactly. I think it's more that younger career Dems (Pete, Booker, Harris being the most notable examples) built their resumes through avenues which are now extremely unpopular now and they're less credible when they tried pivoting to issues of social justice. They got lagged behind because the party was pushed left.
 

Wraith

Member
Jun 28, 2018
8,892
Can the title be updated to reflect that this is, so far, a single national poll and not a polling lead backed up by multiple polls? (I say this not to toss a wet blanket on people's excitement, but we should make sure we're looking at the big picture. His polls are trending upwards, and this poll is reflective of that. But he's not, on average, in the lead just yet.)
 

LBsquared

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Nov 22, 2019
1,603
Months ago, when she surged, and temporarily lead the pack, this would have been the case. She collapsed, unfortunately, and has never managed to win back her earlier support.

She won the popular vote by 3 million votes. And lost the electoral college by 80000 votes. The polling was accurate.
Hmmm who do I trust, someone on a forum or pollsters who admit their polling was bad?
 

ccbfan

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,498
User Banned (5 Days): Concern Trolling on Sensitive Issues
Warren is getting destroyed right now for being thought as untruthful. Her unwillingly to admit you need to raise taxes on the middle class for her progressive policies is a big negative on her and put a bullseye on her back. Now everything she says or said is coming back to haunt her.

She has good ideas and policies but her obsession with identity politics have hurt her extremely. She doesn't need to "live the situation" to understand the problem. Being dishonest about it won't help when its so easy to fact check these days.
 

Deleted member 4346

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,976
Warren needs to back out and endorse Bernie Sanders. Or right after Iowa. It's time, Liz. If she wants a left agenda, Sanders shares 99% of her domestic policies. The alternative is Joe Biden, who has much less in common with her policy-wise.

also leads among voters of color

God. Damn. Bernie. Bros!
 

Wraith

Member
Jun 28, 2018
8,892
Warren is getting destroyed right now for being thought as untruthful. Her unwillingly to admit you need to raise taxes on the middle class for her progressive policies is a big negative on her and put a bullseye on her back. Now everything she says or said is coming back to haunt her.

She has good ideas and policies but her obsession with identity politics have hurt her extremely. She doesn't need to "live the situation" to understand the problem. Being dishonest about it won't help when its so easy to fact check these days.
Please explain "her obsession with identity politics."
 

RailWays

One Winged Slayer
Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
15,678
Warren is getting destroyed right now for being thought as untruthful. Her unwillingly to admit you need to raise taxes on the middle class for her progressive policies is a big negative on her and put a bullseye on her back. Now everything she says or said is coming back to haunt her.

She has good ideas and policies but her obsession with identity politics have hurt her extremely. She doesn't need to "live the situation" to understand the problem. Being dishonest about it won't help when its so easy to fact check these days.
Where has she "obsessed" with identity politics any more than every other candidate running? How is it a detriment?
Hell, the main stem of her campaign messaging is about rooting out the corruption in Washington. What does that have to do with identity politics?
 

Deleted member 28564

User-requested account closure
Banned
Oct 31, 2017
3,604
Hmmm who do I trust, someone on a forum or pollsters who admit their polling was bad?
You shouldn't trust anyone! Especially not yourself! So, that part where you ask who you should trust? My goodness, you've already fallen for the trap. You can't even begin to trust others, when trusting, by its very definition, requires you to trust your own ability to have trust enough to trust others. Trust me, I am wholly trustworthy when it comes to the matter of trust.
 

Deleted member 7051

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,254
She has to pull off a win in Iowa, which would give her momentum and shift the media narrative in her favor since it would be a massive upset. She almost reached Biden's numbers at one point earlier on before her support started to splinter, but a victory might allow her to put the coalition back together by peeling off Bernie voters and demonstrating that Biden is vulnerable.

Short of that, she probably won't go anywhere unless Bernie suddenly drops out from another health scare or something.

I hope she can pull it off, then. If Bernie wins, there won't be a woman fighting for the White House for at least another eight years.
 

KtotheRoc

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
56,671
Warren is getting destroyed right now for being thought as untruthful. Her unwillingly to admit you need to raise taxes on the middle class for her progressive policies is a big negative on her and put a bullseye on her back. Now everything she says or said is coming back to haunt her.

She has good ideas and policies but her obsession with identity politics have hurt her extremely. She doesn't need to "live the situation" to understand the problem. Being dishonest about it won't help when its so easy to fact check these days.

"Identity Politics"?
 
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