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Bernie Sanders surges into national lead and also leads among voters of color (in CNN poll).
- Thread starter UshioRulz
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the idea of Sanders winning the nomination and then having another heart attack during the general while the nominee scares the hell out of me
It depends on how much you believe that ideology is driven by political lanes than something else. Personally I think Bernie has a better shot because he's not a democrat and he isn't a part of the establishment norm (And wasn't absorbed by the blob). Meanwhile if you think Biden can snatch votes because he's of the conservative/center side of the dem party then well you have a right to that opinion.
Granted we should be trying to activate voters (There are a lot of inactive voters) and not try to steal votes from the Rs (Partisanship is pretty strong in america as Hillary showed.)
that makes no sense. If he wins he'd likely (ideally should) have every registered dem voting for him come nov, and repubs will likely try to pejoratively label him a commie/socialist, so I'm not sure what demographic him picking a more moderate VP appeals to. As it stands I think he'd appeal sufficiently over trump to enough "independents" with his current message to pull in enough swing voters. Also, why not a more left leaning younger POC? Why would he compromise on his own platform by picking a more moderate potential successor?
Don't worry Dick Cheney had worse in the run up to the 2000 election and he's just fine.
but what if we don't like them and we already ordered our action figures of the candidate we do like?
This is not true. Real clear politics has him at a +3. Hardly beating him to a pulp.
This is a much more succinct version of my post. I'm not sure why anyone in the US would look at our most recent election and think that leaning harder left is a good idea.
Wait, England?
So all the boasting about "my country has had female leaders, what's your excuse?" was about fucking Thatcher? Christ on a stick.
That hasn't been the trend for any recent primary except the 2012 Republican primary.
In 2012 the polls for the Republican primaries always had Romney at or near the top, but the actual front-runner varied between him and Perry, Cain, Gingrich and Santorum. That's the kind of race you're describing, but it's not typical of what we see in other years.
In 2016 the polls for the Republican primaries had Trump as the front-runner with a comfortable margin since July 2015, with the exception of about two weeks in November where Carson was within touching distance of his polling figures.
In 2016, the polls for the Democrat primaries had Clinton in the lead from start to finish. Sanders closed the gap and managed to get pretty close by April 2016, but then it widened as it became clearer that he wasn't going to win.
In the 2020 Democratic primaries so far, nobody's consistently been top except Biden. That might now be starting to change. Warren did get close to Biden and then gradually slid back to her current numbers, but polls certainly have not shown a series of candidates getting one or two weeks on top. If Sanders starts hitting the top of polls now, that's not part of a trend that's happened every primary season, that's a change in the dynamic of this campaign.
Biden winning in November if he's the nominee isn't a reason to be upset.
On top of all the other problems users have pointed out with your post, Warren is old too. She's 70.
I think it's part of the human condition. A great number of people are easily manipulated through fear and doubt. So much so that they are willing to accept an even worse fate when presented an option that challenges their preconceived notions. Whether that is the false belief that welfare makes people lazy or that healthcare is a privilege. Sadly many would rather their life go to ruin as long as they feel that they have some control over somebody else, refusing to accept the fact that they are themselves being manipulated by the rich and powerful.
So yeah even democrats struggle with this because the party truly is the centrist party at best. And republicans will only continue moving to the right until well, they destroy the country or the entire planet.
Oh so it's totally fine to ask a woman to step aside for a man, but it's silly to ask a man to step aside for a woman?
I'm not antisemitic. I'm not even the person who brought it up. Someone brings it up to argue against Sanders backing a woman and I'm s'posed to just drop my argument completely?
Yes, it really is. He isn't what we need going forward at all.
Find me anywhere where I implied anyone should drop out, least of all warren.
I brought up a Jewish rebuttal to emulate your own logic and show how silly of an assertion if was to suggest, NOT to imply warren should drop out. But you seem to legitimately believe that it is more important to be a woman than it is to be Jewish and I personally don't care to argue the merits of where either stand in some virtue signaling contest, I think its kind of gross to be trying to rank under represented groups against each other. Both are important, but suggesting either drop out solely due to being a woman or being Jewish is a lousy position to take. And you should feel bad for bringing it up.
Again I didn't say this. And I'm really confused at which post of mine you think I said this.
To be fair, Boris isn't Trump. Boris might be bad, but he isn't Trump bad. Hillary only lost because of three states, and I believe ~100000 votes across those three states. Bernie oughtn't have much difficulty, especially since Trump is no longer an unknown.
https://www.axios.com/hillary-clint...ice-1b4bc4fc-9fad-44b4-ab54-9ef86aa9c1f1.html
Winning the Senate is the real question.
Just an opinion champ
Warren seems like the one to me (from an outside perspective). Biden seems deeply flawed.
Why are they all old af?
You're all worrying too much about national numbers.
Biden is actually leading in Iowa averages right now. If he does win there the rest of this primary is bunk. Sanders needs to sweep the first three states to have even a chance of winning.
Biden is actually leading in Iowa averages right now. If he does win there the rest of this primary is bunk. Sanders needs to sweep the first three states to have even a chance of winning.
I think the thinking at the time was Warren and Sanders would join together both teams of progressives to defeat Biden, since he seemed unstoppable at the time. Not sure Biden has played the Obama card too many times or the Burisma stuff is dragging him down, but it seems like Bernie would be a strong contender on his own, we'll have to see
Nah actually he is very likely to take Obama->Trump voters back, alot of the defectors were looking for radical establishment change and new ideas... which Trump tricked a LOT of people into thinking was his platform compared to business-as-usual Clinton.
I will take an avatar bet on this, Biden winning in 2020 will be the electoral death of the Democratic party in 2022 and 2024. No one is inspired by or energized him. No one wants to volunteer for Joe Biden or be inspired by him.
To be fair, it's super obvious she was talking about other politicians. She pointed out his lack of ability to actually get any legislation done which requires support from others generally.
I'm surprised by this to say the least but the polls have been all over the map so we'll see how it plays out.. not that much longer until things start in earnest.
Some of us are part of communities that feel the effects of moving to the right. And right now a large portion of Americans dislike/don't trust our current leadership. The whole party platform has shifted to the left.....and we have multiple progressive candidates polling well.
Entertaining thread, especially the long running conversation about how a candidate 10 pts ahead of another and getting closer to being the possible front runner should drop out because "it's the right thing to do".
Usually people polling lower drop out but this is ERA. This is going to be a fun filled year.
Usually people polling lower drop out but this is ERA. This is going to be a fun filled year.
And? If all you're doing is looking for "smears" then Biden is a wet dream for this shit too. What matters (and what should be learned from UK Labour just sitting back and letting the media and right have their way with them) is how you fight it.
Savage 🤣
Biden winning in 2020 means we're going to lose more seats across the USA in 2022 and god help us in a 2024 election.
Hopefully they wouldn't be clueless but can't be too hopeful I guess.
It is an educated guess though. Biden generally performs better than Sanders does in polling. There was a SurveyUSA poll that dropped today which had Sanders running ahead of Biden by 2 points in the general election (+9 over Trump for Sanders, +7 for Biden) and it's literally the first high quality pollster I've seen in a long time to show a result like that. The CNN poll that this thread was started on shows the exact opposite.
In the three states that decided the 2016 election, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Sanders runs marginally better in Michigan GE polling, whereas Biden does several points better in Pennsylania and Wisconsin. Biden has a very small lead in Arizona polling as well, often considered an alternative to winning Wisconsin (generally considered the least reliable of those three states), that turns into an outright Trump lead when he's pit against Sanders or Warren. Same with the ever-controversial Florida - Biden wins by 2.7, Sanders ties. North Carolina, same story, similar overperformance by Biden.
North Carolina, Michigan and Arizona all feature high-profile Senate contests as well. The better the Democratic nominee does in those states, the likelier it is they carry the rest of the ticket.
I'm not saying this as if it's a definitive truth, I'm just pointing out that when people say Biden is more electable, they're not talking completely out of their ass. Yes, these are trial heats being conducted nine months out from the election, they're subject to ebb and flow. Biden could very well turn out to be a dud of a candidate, in fact it is one of the biggest things I fear about him as I do think he's the likeliest to win the primary, but it helps to try and understand the logic behind "Biden is the most electable" rather than just angrily kneejerk reacting to it. You don't even have to agree with it, but it's not based on nothing.
Regarding your last point, no, Biden doesn't support Medicare for All, but his healthcare plan is quite good. The most important element is it creates a strong public option, which would be the likeliest catalyst for us to move onto a single-payer plan eventually - I support M4A but I think we're still a good 5-10 years away from it being feasible, and Biden's plan would represent a significant step towards it. Biden also has a decent climate plan that often gets overlooked and made me breathe the biggest sigh of relief regarding his inevitability as a nominee, as I consider climate change to be a literal existential crisis that requires immediate action. Neither plan is as bold as Sanders or Warren's policies, but they are significant and the suggestion that Biden would simply be a return to the status quo is ignorant at best and disingenuous at worst.
ok one more time for my homie in the back:
it's weird to ask a winner to step aside for a loser.
A Biden presidency would be a band-aid solution to the problems America is facing. I absolutely despise Trump and want him gone, but I prefer it to be done through a president that wants to actually push the country forward
Because the democrat brand has been absolute dumpster fire garbage since the reagan days that there was no care in trying to prep a younger generation of politicans so Gen Xers got the leap frog and Millenial's didn't see anything until AOC had to take out the #2 in a new york primary that was by all means a sleeper.
You will always lose seats in the midterms when you're the party in power. Same goes for a Sanders administration.
You mean like all the polls that had Hillary crushing Trump into a pulp? Ignorance is giving any credence to polling.
Months ago, when she surged, and temporarily lead the pack, this would have been the case. She collapsed, unfortunately, and has never managed to win back her earlier support.
She won the popular vote by 3 million votes. And lost the electoral college by 80000 votes. The polling was accurate.
the anti endorsement of the former slave owner is actually the best endorsement he could have asked for, no one likes her
How dare you lay this on me. This entire thread is filled with people saying Warren should drop out and you single me out because I say, as a woman, she shouldn't and you bring up Sanders is Jewish so you can accuse me of being antisemitic?
Is that your tactic to shut down anyone who supports Warren over Sanders? The fuck even is this? Look at how many people are saying my posts are disgusting or antisemitic because of something YOU brought up.
Lol she will be laughed out of court.
Hmmm
It looks like we got a race
Didnt they say Obama abused power when because he used "too many EOs" while Trump has used more EOs in his first term then Obama in 2?
Anyone know what the general consensus is for why Warren support seems to have hit a wall?
I know in my home we love Bernie and of course will vote for whichever Democrat wins the nomination. I know for my household we soured on her a little bit when she couldn't answer questions on how she would pay for Medicare for All and then it appears that afterwards she backed away from Medicare for All entirely.
I'm sure others were similar but I can't really think of anything else she has done that turned me away.
I know in my home we love Bernie and of course will vote for whichever Democrat wins the nomination. I know for my household we soured on her a little bit when she couldn't answer questions on how she would pay for Medicare for All and then it appears that afterwards she backed away from Medicare for All entirely.
I'm sure others were similar but I can't really think of anything else she has done that turned me away.
Reagan issued thousands of EOs and Obama was actually on the low side compared to other presidents
Let's rap.
(flips chair around and sits in it backwards)
There is no candidate who the Democrats could nominate this year who would be insulated from losses in the midterms.
In one hundred years of midterm elections in this country, there have been exactly three where the incumbent president's party hasn't lost seats, FDR's first midterm in 1934 (which was so long ago it's practically irrelevant to contemporary politics, also he had massive good will from dealing with the Depression), Clinton in 98 (backlash to Republican impeachment efforts that were considered frivolous) and Bush in 2002 (9/11 bounce plus redistricting that benefited the GOP).
Now of course, there are degrees to those losses. Even if they didn't pick up any seats next year, Democrats could still afford to lose fifteen House seats in the next midterm elections and remain in the majority. Bump that up to twenty and you get Speaker McCarthy.
However we should be perfectly clear what dynamics would be at play in the next midterms and the likelihood that Democrats get washed out, no matter who the president is, especially considering how volatile the electorate is with regards to healthcare policy. Obama passed the Affordable Care Act, often decried now in leftist circles as an ineffective compromise, and Republicans came out in droves to act as a check on SOSHULIZM (well they were also mostly really fucking racist, as well). I can only imagine the fallout when Sanders attempts to move single-payer through, or even Biden's public option.
Like. We just need to be clear on this. If Sanders does win and can hold together his coalition to beat back GOP gains, I'll be on cloud nine. I'm not convinced.
Not going to disagree with this point. However I feel the base levels of enthusiasm would help Sanders suffer less severely than a Biden presidency. Especially considering the end goal for the Biden supporters is to get Trump out of office.
Warren's appeal is primarily to college educated, affluent white liberals. Some people who like her for her intelligence but are skeptical of big government programs got poached by Pete, while people who like economic progressivism solidified around Bernie since he's more radical.
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