Other nominated for Democratic candidate
Other elected President of the United States
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Bernie Sanders surges into national lead and also leads among voters of color (in CNN poll).
- Thread starter UshioRulz
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Other nominated for Democratic candidate
Other elected President of the United States
User Banned (1 Day): Trolling
Well maybe the people who disagree with that statement should keep their stupid ideas to themselves
Bernie's been fluctuating up and down by slim margins lately, on average in the Iowa polls. This is potentially a good sign for him if the numbers go stay up in his favor by Feb 3.
The Iowa caucus is on the 3rd of February. Which if he keeps staying above Biden, means he might win it.
The Iowa caucus is on the 3rd of February. Which if he keeps staying above Biden, means he might win it.
No discussion, but plenty of hand wringing. If only we could harness the power of the wringing!
Joe Biden(Lib Dems(12 seats, 7.4%)) is the only one who can defeat Boris Johnson because the British voters trust Joe Biden to deliver Brexit.
I mean, it's pretty clear he doesn't think the DNC would ever give Bernie the nom. Especially after 2016 (and we KNOW Trump loves to relitigate 2016). Better to sew discourse in his mind, I'm sure.
which to expend energy on? the insidious erasure of any diversity among a large group of supporters? or rabble rousing? the insidious erasure of any diversity among a large group of supporters? or rabble rousing?
It seems disingenuous to blame her poll numbers on the Comey letter, which was released in October of 2016, to the sources I linked which show polling that was done back in May of 2016.
It helps that Politifact also fact-checked his same claim back in March of 2016, and it was true then too!
So was my statement "factual"? Who is being more truthful here?
bernie campaigned for hillary at an unprecedented degree
and she in turn helped him out by saying she disliked him
it's nice to see these former rivals help each other out 😄
and she in turn helped him out by saying she disliked him
it's nice to see these former rivals help each other out 😄
CNN's poll numbers are for "Voters of Color"/all non White voters, so it's "misleading" in regards to trying to be lumped in with discussions on Biden and his support among Black voters.
Morning Consult from today maintains the status quo of last weeks Morning Consult poll:
Biden 29
Sanders 24
Warren 15
Buttigieg 8
Bloomberg 10
Yang 4
Klobuchar 3
Steyer 3
Small correction from how the CNN poll presents it's data and the title of the OP. The fourth line of the CNN article associated with this thread is,
"The margin between the two is within the poll's margin of sampling error, meaning there is no clear leader in this poll."
Biden 29
Sanders 24
Warren 15
Buttigieg 8
Bloomberg 10
Yang 4
Klobuchar 3
Steyer 3
Small correction from how the CNN poll presents it's data and the title of the OP. The fourth line of the CNN article associated with this thread is,
"The margin between the two is within the poll's margin of sampling error, meaning there is no clear leader in this poll."
take it with a grain of salt but I remember reading her fundraising losing quite a bit of steam
Yes, because a woman giving up her own goals for the sake of a man's career is totally how they should start this decade. If Sanders truly does believe America can handle a woman being president, surely he should be the one to drop out and endorse Warren?
Once a woman is in the White House, other women will see a political career as something more achievable. Last I heard, less than a quarter of the people in the House were women. It should be half.
Love to see it.
This is insanity. It stinks of the same insane framing as 'well the Democrats did move further to the left so why is Sanders running again?'
Warren and Sanders have both made their own mistakes. If you want Sanders to drop out and endorse Warren now you're egregiously wounding the lefts chances at achieving systemic change for optics. If Warren isn't able to win the nomination on merit what kind of optics does that create? She's be torn to shreds as token representation. Imagine what it would look like at this junction.
This is insanity. It stinks of the same insane framing as 'well the Democrats did move further to the left so why is Sanders running again?'
Warren and Sanders have both made their own mistakes. If you want Sanders to drop out and endorse Warren now you're egregiously wounding the lefts chances at achieving systemic change for optics. If Warren isn't able to win the nomination on merit what kind of optics does that create? She's be torn to shreds as token representation. Imagine what it would look like at this junction.
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Bernie's voters go between Biden and Warren. It won't be enough to launch her to the lead when she's lagging behind. He also has the best shot, between the two progressive candidates, of winning. Please think things through before you make silly posts like these.
no, this is too milquetoast for me.
A white woman? lol. If Sanders really was as progressive as he makes it out to be, he'd have the good sense to give up his spot for Kamala.
i don't think she should drop out.
first, she is a good candidate in her own right
second, apparently data shows that a lot of her supporters actually don't have bernie as their second choice
and third, in a brokered convention, she and bernie would likely team up
Trumps gets acquitted, Trump asks another foreign government to run a counterintelligence operation.
Tulsi. Woman. Asian. Hindu. Under 40. Think of all the barriers she'd break!
Is that all women in power is to you? "Optics"? It's no wonder America is fucked if it thinks anyone other than a white man in power is just a publicity stunt.
Your statement (paraphrased): Bernie Sanders polls better against Trump than Clinton ever did.
My argument is that at various times Clinton was polling better than Sanders is currently, and overall polled well against Trump excluding the week of the RNC, and the 2 weeks from the Comey Letter onwards. She was polling as much as 14 points ahead and comfortably in the 6-9 points ahead range, and that range was fairly consistent.
Sanders currently is 3.5 points ahead of Trump in H2H's according to RCP average. If we look at the over time changes, just before the Comey Letter, Clinton was comfortably leading in national polls with 5.9%; https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...tions_electoral_college_map_race_changes.html
You can compare all the polls from March 2016 you want, but the reality is they don't mean much because Trump wasn't the nominee then, and Sanders was still fairly obscure/unknown. I recall some of those March/April polls he polled more in line with GCD numbers than with an actual candidate, and his name recognition was still middling. Now he doesn't have that. Additionally, he's running against an incumbent who can lean into a good economy. The races are fundamentally different, so those early 2016 polls are less reflective of his actual odds in a H2H against Trump than the current polls.
So youre saying the Jewish man should drop out huh? Ok.
I think Sanders' best early state is New Hampshire, where he's in a dead heat with Biden (16% Sanders, 15% Biden, Buttigieg 12%, Warren 10%). Latest Iowa polling from Monday shows Sanders in 4th place behind Biden (24%), Warren (18%), Buttigieg (16%), carrying 14%, then Klobochar at 11%, and a fall off to low single digits after that.
THe Iowa poll I trust the most is the one from the Des Moines Register, but their pollster (Sezler & Co) intentionally doesn't poll on a schedule to avoid campaigns from trying to stack the polling just as they start making phone calls... so we likely won't get another poll from them until a few days out from the Caucus. Selzer's latest Iowa poll (Jan 2-8) had Sanders ahead 20, Warren 17, Buttigieg 16, Biden 15, and then the rest in single digits. Selzer has generally been the most accurate poll going back a couple decades since polling has been done in Iowa, accurately predicting Obama's 2008 Iowa caucus victory when others all showed Clinton, and Cruz in 2016 when others showed Trump. Trump campaign probably should have won Iowa in 2016, they had the most support going into it, but they basically no showed all of the caucuses with volunteers and had no idea how to run a caucus, disorganized and unable to bring people to their side. They just sort of thought it was a primary.
If CNN was using the same type of voter pool, then it is a signal nationally, if they changed it up then it shows an area where Sanders does better.
With Monmouth national poll also included; net change since 1/14. Biden 26.6 (-0.1) Sanders 20.4 (+1.8) Warren 15.8 (-0.3) Buttigieg 7.6 (+0.4) Bloomberg 7.3 (+1.5) So basically... Sanders and Bloomberg moving up in national polls, others steady.
How exactly would that work? I've tried to read up on the Democratic primary but it's very confusing lol.
And I agree Warren is a good candidate and we'd be lucky to have her - I just fear the progressive vote will be split and we'll end up with Biden.
Bernie still, really is way better for a general election than from Biden. Just thinking about logistics.
Trump has had a foreign power dig up as much stuff as they can about Biden. Even if Biden were a progressive genius, we really don't know what Trump has dug up on Biden. We can have a Hilary Emails 2.0 thing, but way way worse.
If Bernie comes out to be the nominee, Trump is woefully underprepared in that regard. Trump has spent the past 3 years digging into Biden hard, galvanizing his base. If Bernie comes out as the nominee, he becomes the wildcard.
Trump has had a foreign power dig up as much stuff as they can about Biden. Even if Biden were a progressive genius, we really don't know what Trump has dug up on Biden. We can have a Hilary Emails 2.0 thing, but way way worse.
If Bernie comes out to be the nominee, Trump is woefully underprepared in that regard. Trump has spent the past 3 years digging into Biden hard, galvanizing his base. If Bernie comes out as the nominee, he becomes the wildcard.
Tulsi can't come to the phone right now, she's doing good elsewhere.
The latest des moines register poll had Bernie up 3, and that poll for Iowa is generally always seen as close. The weekend before the Iowa caucaus we will get their last poll for the cycle, which is always fun to see "who is leading" before the actual caucus day.
For national polling that's extremely fucking good for Bernie.
And if the Comey letter came from the Obama administration, just think what will come from the Trump administration.
Maybe he'd do it to Bernie too, but it works a lot less well on the person running on policies to benefit voters verses a person running on being less corrupt than Trump.
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So you're saying Sanders being Jewish is more important than Warren being a woman and therefore it's more reasonable she drops out instead?
At that rate he'd be in the lead nationally in 4 weeks. Super tuesday is in 6 weeks.
Disclaimer: I'm European. My understanding of American politics is obviously limited, but I've followed this election cycle pretty closely.
I find the notion peddled by some in this thread that Bernie Sanders shouldn't win the primary because he'd definitely lose against Trump simply ludicrous. An uneducated guess at best. When put up against someone who pushes the Overton window so far to the right and wins by doing so, only someone with a clearly antithetical, leftist message can have a shot at winning. Right now, that's Sanders, and nobody else. Warren is second, but she could stand to be more radical. Biden is a joke. A milquetoast candidate with no convictions and increasingly embarrassing bouts of senility. The fact that he's a 'safe' choice is precisely why he would lose against Trump.
Some people like to negatively portray Sanders as Trump's equivalent on the left. They are almost right, yet so wrong. He is definitely a foil to Trump, but in the most positive way: whenever Trump is vile, serves corporate/rich people's interests, shows blatant disdain for anyone he deems lesser than him - i.e. pretty much everybody -, refuses to admit any mistake and generally contradicts himself all the time, Sanders shows humility, refuses money from big donors, speaks for minorities, and has been extremely consistant throughout his career. Both claim to serve the people, true, but only one of them means it, with the receipts to prove it, and his name doesn't start with a T. Also, fuck any candidate who doesn't put climate change and Medicare for All at the forefront of their campaign.
I find the notion peddled by some in this thread that Bernie Sanders shouldn't win the primary because he'd definitely lose against Trump simply ludicrous. An uneducated guess at best. When put up against someone who pushes the Overton window so far to the right and wins by doing so, only someone with a clearly antithetical, leftist message can have a shot at winning. Right now, that's Sanders, and nobody else. Warren is second, but she could stand to be more radical. Biden is a joke. A milquetoast candidate with no convictions and increasingly embarrassing bouts of senility. The fact that he's a 'safe' choice is precisely why he would lose against Trump.
Some people like to negatively portray Sanders as Trump's equivalent on the left. They are almost right, yet so wrong. He is definitely a foil to Trump, but in the most positive way: whenever Trump is vile, serves corporate/rich people's interests, shows blatant disdain for anyone he deems lesser than him - i.e. pretty much everybody -, refuses to admit any mistake and generally contradicts himself all the time, Sanders shows humility, refuses money from big donors, speaks for minorities, and has been extremely consistant throughout his career. Both claim to serve the people, true, but only one of them means it, with the receipts to prove it, and his name doesn't start with a T. Also, fuck any candidate who doesn't put climate change and Medicare for All at the forefront of their campaign.
We've reached the point where normal people who don't typically spend any time thinking about politics are going to start tuning into the race, and I'm convinced that's only a good thing for Bernie's numbers.
His entire case is that he'll be able to enact change by building a massive groundswell of popular support. He's going to do everything he can to maximize the size of his coattails.
His entire case is that he'll be able to enact change by building a massive groundswell of popular support. He's going to do everything he can to maximize the size of his coattails.
Are you saying being Jewish is less important than being a woman? (also I never said anything close to what you suggested)
Warren being behind the curve is the reason she should drop out. For the record, I don't want her to drop out just yet.
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