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Axios: Beto O’Rourke is preparing to run for governor of Texas in 2022

VinylCassette64

VinylCassette64

The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
2,426
As someone unfamiliar with Texas politics, I guess I'm slightly more optimistic than others?

I feel like Abbott and DeSantis' administrations attempts to publically out-race each other to the bottom with their handling of COVID and other fiascos (esp. the power outage regarding Abbot) have disgusted enough people to make him vulnerable; and I think SB-8 and it's undoing on Roe V Wade (as well as the same architect's recently-filed brief to try and also overturn same-sex marriage) could be the threshold needed to motivate people to kick him out. Plus if all of what Abbott's done is still not enough for him to stave off a primary attempt by someone that's further (alt-)right to him, maybe that could end up splitting the R vote?

But with all that said...

janusff said:
Texas has some of the most strict voting laws now. GOP here have secured their decades in power
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I feel like this is the bigger roadblock towards a Beto victory at this point, far more than his comments on gun control and his track record of lost Presidential/Governor runs.The current voting laws in Georgia now ended up being passed in response to the work Abrams and company were able to put in to get their Senate victories. Texas has arguably dealt with that well in advance by this point.
 
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Thordinson

Thordinson

Member
Aug 1, 2018
18,081
VinylCassette64 said:
I feel like this is the bigger roadblock towards a Beto victory at this point, far more than his comments on gun control and his track record of lost Presidential/Governor runs.The current voting laws in Georgia now ended up being passed in response to the work Abrams and company were able to put in to get their Senate victories. Texas has arguably dealt with that well in advance by this point.
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Beto has been building up Texas like Stacey Abrams has been building up Georgia. He's been putting tons of work it.

I'm not sure he'll win but he'll definitely help down ballot.
 
Jakenbakin

Jakenbakin

Member
Jun 17, 2018
11,824
Dude damn near beat Cruz, I'll believe in him whatever he decides because I think Beto is one of the good ones.
 
XMonkey

XMonkey

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,827
Strong Island said:
The defeatism is crazy on this forum. Please give me a candidate that would make this race competitive. "Moderate" candidates like MJ Hegar got destroyed.

Beto has already done the hard work and is a known commodity. Abbott is an absolutely abysmal governor. Beto has a far better connection to the Latino community in Texas.

I'd argue turning the Texas governors mansion blue would have a longer term impact on that state than electing a Democratic senator.
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Not exactly a Dem, but I think McConaughey could win. In part due to Beto's legwork, even.
 

Deleted member 31923

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 8, 2017
5,826
Ryuelli said:
My favorite part is people saying Beto shot himself in the foot with his gun comments and that all the GOP would need to do to have him lose is play them over and over and that McConaughey would be a better candidate, and yet...

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I'd argue that neither McConaughey nor Beto have a great chance, along with anyone else running against Abbott. The problem with running in a red state is that if you have a candidate that is too progressive, they lose, but moderate candidates don't do well either in terms of turnout. We saw how poorly moderates do with Amy Mcgrath in Kentucky.

So I don't know the solution of what type of candiate to run. If Beto runs, that's fine. He did well against Cruz by only losing by 2.6 points, but that was a blue wave year. We just have to wait for Texas to turn purple. But even that is taking forever, and there's no guarantee that it doesn't shift red again like Florida has.
 
Royalan

Royalan

I can say DEI; you can't.
Moderator
Oct 24, 2017
11,963
Well, Beto ran a stronger race than most Dems in recent memory.

Let's see how it shakes out.
 
XMonkey

XMonkey

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,827
Zoe said:
I do think his celebrity would win over R's on the fence about Abbott. But if McConaughey runs, Dems can't put forward anyone or else that would split the votes.
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Yup I agree, which is why I'm kind of torn on this speculation with Beto. I love the guy, but if it came down to it I'd rather take the best shot at unseating a true Republican.
 
Ryuelli

Ryuelli

Member
Oct 26, 2017
15,209
XMonkey said:
Yup I agree, which is why I'm kind of torn on this speculation with Beto. I love the guy, but if it came down to it I'd rather take the best shot at unseating a true Republican.
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I think the biggest issue right now is how long should the Dems wait for McConaughey to confirm one way or the other? Flirting with the possibility on radio shows here or there is one thing, actually running is another. 2022 is right around the corner and putting all your eggs into a hypothetical basket doesn't seem smart. If McConaughey is actually interested in running, I'd prefer him to stop playing around and commit already.

I also think polling for McConaughey this far out is misleading, if he decides to actually run all he needs is a Rick Perry-forgetting-the-department-he'd-cut scenario or a (for arguments sake) Beto-We'll-Take-Your-Guns (which he already has done; the GQP would just need to grab that soundbite!) scenario to tank those chances.

McConaughey may be ahead in polling now, but we also know little to nothing about his actual political views outside of him being a potential centrist. Once/if he runs and his views become more clear, I'm sure polling will change and change fast.
 
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br0ken_shad0w

br0ken_shad0w

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,095
Washington
Beto is like the only Democrat in Texas who actually tries state-wide which is the sad part. People before kept hyping up the Castro bros but they never want to do anything and have Jeb-tier charisma.

The guns thing will definitely be the biggest issue and the Republicans will keep that message going 24/7 no matter what Beto says now.
 
Dodongo

Dodongo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,462
I don't see a downside to him running. It's an uphill battle, but it always is in Texas.

Give them hell Beto
 
XMonkey

XMonkey

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,827
Ryuelli said:
I think the biggest issue right now is how long should the Dems wait for McConaughey to confirm one way or the other? Flirting with the possibility on radio shows here or there is one thing, actually running is another. 2022 is right around the corner and putting all your eggs into a hypothetical basket doesn't seem smart. If McConaughey is actually interested in running, I'd prefer him to stop playing around and commit already.

I also think polling for McConaughey this far out is misleading, if he decides to actually run all he needs is a Rick Perry-forgetting-the-department-he'd-cut scenario or a (for arguments sake) Beto-We'll-Take-Your-Guns (which he already has done; the GQP would just need to grab that soundbite!) scenario to tank those chances.

McConaughey may be ahead in polling now, but we also know little to nothing about his actual political views outside of him being a centrist. Once/if he runs and his views become more clear, I'm sure polling will change and change fast.
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I think that's a fair point about the timing. And maybe this news being floated out there is a sign that behind the scenes it's looking like he isn't going to run.

As for the issues/polling I don't really agree with that. I don't believe voters decide who they want to vote for primarily on policy details over other things and if McConaughey is savvy enough he can focus the race as a referendum on Abbott first and foremost.
 

Gyro Zeppeli

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,289
While Abbott is a piece of shit that needs to go, can we please kick Cruz out of the senate? How has that neckbeard loser stuck around as long as he has by now?
 
Diarrhea Day-Lewis

Diarrhea Day-Lewis

Member
Oct 27, 2017
20,764
He fumbled his senate run against Cruz so badly running for President. He lost a lot of good will with liberals in TX, I hope he can do it but I doubt it. His brand will be so much more damaged if Abbott wins.

and I can't see Beto without hearing BIB-LEE-OH-TECH-AH because he meme'd himself by forcing his poor spanish into the debates.
 
Helix

Helix

Mayor of Clown Town
Member
Jun 8, 2019
23,797
yeah......I respect his stances but I'm not sure if his gun control policies will sit well with a Texas crowd. don't think he'd make it that far...

Prove me wrong Beto!
 

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SilentSoldier

SilentSoldier

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,456
I wonder if people felt like he should have retried for senate instead of running for president in 2020. I think he may have had a much better shot of becoming a senator then. I don't know, but either way, I'm all for him trying to unseat that hateful idiot bigot Abbot and becoming governor
 
Ablacious

Ablacious

Member
Dec 23, 2018
1,650
He got pretty darn close by Texas standards. Just needs to be more amicable for older people. Maybe color his hair gray.
I didn't realize a dem governor would have veto-override protection with the current lege breakdown. Thought it was bleaker. Unless my math is terrible.
Really need to beat that drum.
 
Sunster

Sunster

The Fallen
Oct 5, 2018
10,017
Texas has more of a shot at electing a democrat for governor than my state of Florida so I'll stay optimistic for now.
 
Big Powder

Big Powder

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,201
I think Beto has a shot, but he has to fix his statements on gun control (even though I agree with him). When I've mentioned thinking that he should run again, that's always been the first thing that people brought up, was that they would not vote for him because of his stance on guns. If he can scrub that off of his image, I think that Abbott's poor handling of COVID as well as the recent Roe v. Wade decision could considerably change the situation in Beto's favor, and given that there's still more time for Abbott to do some incredibly terrible shit, there could be even more people who want him out by the time the election rolls around.

I'm being optimistic here, but I think he's our best shot. He's also relatively well known, which is a great boon.
 

Strong Island

Member
May 11, 2020
656
izx said:
I think Beto has a shot, but he has to fix his statements on gun control (even though I agree with him). When I've mentioned thinking that he should run again, that's always been the first thing that people brought up, was that they would not vote for him because of his stance on guns. If he can scrub that off of his image, I think that Abbott's poor handling of COVID as well as the recent Roe v. Wade decision could considerably change the situation in Beto's favor, and given that there's still more time for Abbott to do some incredibly terrible shit, there could be even more people who want him out by the time the election rolls around.

I'm being optimistic here, but I think he's our best shot. He's also relatively well known, which is a great boon.
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If he runs just be very clear up front of his gun platform. His gun control positions are popular in Texas but it's all about his presentation of those policies. He knows Texas so let's see how it goes. After seeing unknowns like MJ Hegar get crushed, I don't think Texas Democrats can do worse
 
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