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Avengers: Endgame will not outgross Avatar worldwide. Who will make an avatar bet about that?
- Thread starter PhoncipleBone
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I don't think Detective Pikachu alone will hurt Endgame's legs that much, but the combined, sustained competition of Pikachu, Godzilla, Toy Story 4, and The Lion King will. Endgame still has a great shot at surpassing Infinity War, though. Avatar will still be king at the end of the day.
I don't think any movie will beat Avatar in the near future. The combination of things needed for it were very rare i.e. super high budget, big name attached to the project, new technology, no competition and new IP helped it a lot, and not to mention the repeated viewings it got. I originally thought Star Wars TFA was going to beat it but it didn't, likely because Star Wars isn't that big in the east (unless I'm wrong here). I wonder if Avatar 2 will beat it, while it will be a direct sequel it'll be the first in over a decade. Then again it depends on a lot of other factors.
it will be. the snap and thanos dominated the internet for a looong while, it has a much much bigger hype than IW had.
i feel more people will go and see it just to be able to be part of the conversation, it's also feels like an ending and the last parts of these cultural phenomenon kinds of things mostly do better.
some examples:
the third LOTR gained over the first two
the last harry potter movie made a lot more than the 7 before. this one even was a part 2 and gained a ton over part 1.
the last twilight movie made the most
the season premiere of GoT broke records.
that's not one better. the TFA domestic record is much much safer than Avatar's WW one.
Realistically, I don't think Endgame will beat Avatar either. I've thrown around $3b unseriously, but honestly, I'm thinking ~$2.3-2.5b.
The only realistic scenario and most likely, the one that is gonna happen
Realistically where do you think the extra 300-500 million over Infinity War is coming from?
Those aren't small numbers.
I think it'll get more repeat watches, because it's basically the finale of this chapter to the MCU, plus $1b opening weekend is definitely happening. Not enough to get past Avatar. Far From Home is more like a coda.
I've kind of always been a sell on Detective Pikachu though. Not sure what to make of Aladdin either.
presumably from the same place where harry potter's "deathly hallows part 2"'s 381 million came from.
again:
7 harry potter movies made 900 million and the last one made 1.3 billion.
this is not unprecedented at all.
people want to see endings, this one is literally called Endgame.
There is a difference between a film making 900 million and a film making 2 billion. Market growth doesn't erase exchange rates or the fact that a saturated market from the year before isn't going to magically expand exponentially.
Because I love semantic arguments: Movie opens on Wednesday in a lot of other countries (including China). So it'll be 5 days to $1B, not 3.
Movies don't report butts in seats for the same reason that NPD doesn't report actual sales anymore. Because of the point of the reporting of the numbers is about whether a movie was profitable or not, not how many people saw it. As an aside, that's also why international grosses are converted using the modern exchange rates and reported in dollars, even though there are other countries that actually do report tickets sold.
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Mostly from Asia. China's gonna do what China does but EG is looking to do an extra $100-$150m there alone. Latin America should also see a decent increase.
This,
But I'm in, I'll take the bet too. I think it will beat Avatar
I don't think it will beat Avatar No, Avatar 2 though? you damn right.
Think about it, it's a conclusion to a cliffhanger story, you kind of need to see the previous film, so all the current Marvel fans will watch it, but not so many new & casuals compared to that who went to see Avatar One, which although big I still do not believe that it's franchise will stand the test of time, only way to find out is at the 3rd film, but but the second film I hear you cry
So how do I come to that conclusion? Well if Avatar 1 is the biggest film Ever, at nearly 3 billion, there is still at least 1.5billion BO worth of interest likely for a second movie, I don't deny that but I then believe half to a third of those viewers will drop off by the third Avatar film.
So at least those who would be curious about a second movie goes to see if that then also makes 1-1.5 to nearly 2 billion dollars people will still be praising it as the second coming of James Cameron but thats not a franchise to brag about thats just one of the biggest films of all time and one very successful but not as big Sequel.
sure it's a box office clean but then it also hinges on merch sales and ongoing Sequel success and actually a good film in order to be classed as a great franchise, if the second one disappoints, then the third film will now lose even more money and suddenly the franchise starts going on a downward turn of interest and Cameron has already planned what? 4,5,6 7 maybe?
See Beyformers, took them 5 movies to see the error of their ways and one really decent movie and now back to planning the rest of the Beyformers Universe, they'll never learn.
You know why Avatar land is successful at Disney parks?
a) it's probably like the a third of a 3 billion box office crowd, whilst thats big its only transformers or mcu big, it's not Avatar one big, does it outdo other rides, lands there? I doubt it.
b) it's a friggen disney park even if the film bored you I am sure the ride is short enough and the characters lookinteresting enough you draw casuals in, there's barely anything in a Disney park thats going to perform poorly thats based on a movie right?, it's even going to attract the attention of kids (you think they are Avatar movie fans? Nahhh) and casual non fans, big blue cat people etc fits right in there with Disney stuff and you hear that it's the biggest flukiest grossing movie of all time of course your gonna be curious.
You want an example? I cant stand Alien films after the second (3 is okish) would I still go on an Alien themed ride? You bet your ass I would, would I go see Beyformers at Universal even though the Movies are bad? Hell yeah.
hows the rest of the Avatar merch coping?
So the better bet is will Avengers Endgame outdo Avatar 2 at the Box office? The Answer is a resounding yes.
For that reason I am not willing to bet.
Think about it, it's a conclusion to a cliffhanger story, you kind of need to see the previous film, so all the current Marvel fans will watch it, but not so many new & casuals compared to that who went to see Avatar One, which although big I still do not believe that it's franchise will stand the test of time, only way to find out is at the 3rd film, but but the second film I hear you cry
So how do I come to that conclusion? Well if Avatar 1 is the biggest film Ever, at nearly 3 billion, there is still at least 1.5billion BO worth of interest likely for a second movie, I don't deny that but I then believe half to a third of those viewers will drop off by the third Avatar film.
So at least those who would be curious about a second movie goes to see if that then also makes 1-1.5 to nearly 2 billion dollars people will still be praising it as the second coming of James Cameron but thats not a franchise to brag about thats just one of the biggest films of all time and one very successful but not as big Sequel.
sure it's a box office clean but then it also hinges on merch sales and ongoing Sequel success and actually a good film in order to be classed as a great franchise, if the second one disappoints, then the third film will now lose even more money and suddenly the franchise starts going on a downward turn of interest and Cameron has already planned what? 4,5,6 7 maybe?
See Beyformers, took them 5 movies to see the error of their ways and one really decent movie and now back to planning the rest of the Beyformers Universe, they'll never learn.
You know why Avatar land is successful at Disney parks?
a) it's probably like the a third of a 3 billion box office crowd, whilst thats big its only transformers or mcu big, it's not Avatar one big, does it outdo other rides, lands there? I doubt it.
b) it's a friggen disney park even if the film bored you I am sure the ride is short enough and the characters lookinteresting enough you draw casuals in, there's barely anything in a Disney park thats going to perform poorly thats based on a movie right?, it's even going to attract the attention of kids (you think they are Avatar movie fans? Nahhh) and casual non fans, big blue cat people etc fits right in there with Disney stuff and you hear that it's the biggest flukiest grossing movie of all time of course your gonna be curious.
You want an example? I cant stand Alien films after the second (3 is okish) would I still go on an Alien themed ride? You bet your ass I would, would I go see Beyformers at Universal even though the Movies are bad? Hell yeah.
hows the rest of the Avatar merch coping?
So the better bet is will Avengers Endgame outdo Avatar 2 at the Box office? The Answer is a resounding yes.
For that reason I am not willing to bet.
I don't know about cheated, but didn't it also have breathing room no movie nowadays gets?
Bruh Avatar 2 will have Disney marketing machine behind it
That is nice and all, but Hollywood decided long ago that raw cash is their metric to determine success.
Oh I know why I just don't like it!
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So is that an in or out?
WW, I agree, but only because of the advantages that Avatar had that Endgame lacks (Christmas season, no competition for months, the 3D gimmick still being a thing). It's got a fair chance of beating it domestic. And Endgame absolutely is going to kick the crap out of Avatar 2.
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SMH at everyone downplaying Avatar 2. You guys never learn.
I doubt Endgame will beat Avatar, but even if it did I wouldn't be surprised at all if Avatar 2 took back the number one spot LOL.
I doubt Endgame will beat Avatar, but even if it did I wouldn't be surprised at all if Avatar 2 took back the number one spot LOL.
I think it's pretty unlikely that End Game does an additional ~740 mil over Infinity War. It would need some strong repeat business, and with the lineup of Summer movies between now and July...I just don't see it happening.
Avatar One is basically the Wii of movies but Emdgame will be the PS2.
I say to Avatar fans:
Dread it. Run from it. Destiny still arrives.
Avatar gambling and creating a 3D viewership where there previously was none is now 'cheating'.
Lmao
Lmao
Whether it does well or not is not predicated on whether it beats Avatar.
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Aladdin sure looks like a weird movie, I'm going back and forth to see it simply to find out how bonkers it is. King Arthur will be hard to beat on that front.
This is where I'm at. Monstrous opening, weak legs. Doesn't surpass TFA domestic nor Avatar worldwide.
And exchange rates, which pose a probably insurmountable barrier to movies right now, even with china's market coming into it's own
I don't get Avatar.
It made a fuck ton of money and then fell off the face of the earth.
I believe that End Game will wreck it, but I like Elesa too much to make the bet.
It made a fuck ton of money and then fell off the face of the earth.
I believe that End Game will wreck it, but I like Elesa too much to make the bet.
Avatar is some next level glitch in the system. Nothing is touching that for a looooong time.
Titanic and The Force Awakens, however... that's a more interesting battle.
Titanic and The Force Awakens, however... that's a more interesting battle.
i'll make an Avatar bet. Avenger endgame will outgross Avatar. If it doesn't, then i will change the Avatar to my avatar so that my avatar will be the Avatar. Now excuse me, i'll have to re-watch Avatar the Last Airbender on netflix while controlling my avatar in Ultima Online.
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