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Avatar bet time: The Rise of Skywalker won't make over $200m opening weekend domestically

Will The Rise of Skywalker make over 200m opening weekend domestically?

  • Over 200m

    Votes: 628 78.9%

  • Under 200m

    Votes: 168 21.1%
  • Total voters
    796
  • Poll closed .
chezzymann

chezzymann

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,042
Palp_trustme.jpg


It's the end of the Skywalker saga. The culmination of 9 films. 42 years. Its gonna make less in it's OW than Jurrasic World.

Let's make a wager. If Rise of Skywalker makes less than 200m opening weekend domestically, I win, and those that lose this bet have to wear an avatar of my choosing for 6 months. Probably Cats avatars with "This generation's Star Wars" ( Credit to Grunge_Hamster for the idea). If it makes more than 200m, then I lose, and those that win this bet get to choose an avatar that I (and anyone else who voted it won't make more than $200m) will have to wear for 6 months.

Deadline to vote is December 4th (want to get things in before weekend estimates start arriving).

Who is willing to put their avatar on the line?
 
BDS

BDS

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,845
The real fun will be if I decide to make my "Frozen 2 will outgross TROS" avatar bet thread
 
Mona

Mona

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
26,151
im not betting my avatar, but i'll say its making less than 200m

but i mean, is that even something disney will allow to happen, so yea, probably over 200m
 
FTF

FTF

Member
Oct 28, 2017
28,364
New York
chezzymann said:
I bet it's gonna be 150, all this "end of the Skywalker saga" stuff isnt gonna click with people as they didn't lay the groundwork in this trilogy to make it feel like the end of the Skywalker saga. So it won't have that event move hype, it'll just play out like a normal big blockbuster.
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Coward. You said $150m and now you make a $200m thread? It could easily do like $190-195m and that shouldn't give you a win.
 
Jarmel

Jarmel

The Jackrabbit Always Wins
Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,297
New York
I think it's going to sneak by 200 million but just barely. TLJ was 220, I could see this making something like 205.

Edit: Also to be clear, I'm not betting on this as I don't care either way.
 
Miamiwesker

Miamiwesker

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,665
Miami
Is this brought to you by the same people that thought Lion King won't break 1.3 billion. You guys really need to learn about box office. It will EASILY break $200 million, this is not even a question.
 
BDS

BDS

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,845
Also, just to be clear, I voted but I'm not actually betting my avatar on this lol

It really could go either way.
 

Deleted member 5666

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,753
It opening a week closer to Christmas than TLJ likely means it could open less than TLJ but still easily outgross it as an FYI.
 
Jarmel

Jarmel

The Jackrabbit Always Wins
Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,297
New York
I think a more interesting question is whether this is going to open higher or lower than TLJ.
 
Lord Vatek

Lord Vatek

Banned
Jan 18, 2018
21,507
I voted but I'm not betting.

This is pretty safe. I think all of the arguments about TLJ will help it.
 

Deleted member 42105

User requested account closure
Banned
Apr 13, 2018
7,994
Only rebel scum would vote and not put their name on the list.

You cowards. This is suppose to be an easy bet right? Put your names on the list.
 
TheXbox

TheXbox

Prophet of Truth
Member
Oct 29, 2017
6,551
I thought Pikachu could make a billion dollars, I'm really not the person to ask about these things.

That said, Box Office Mojo says only seven films have ever passed 200m OW. I'm not really sure why everyone assumes TROS will cross that threshold as if it's matter of course.
 

Deleted member 135

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
11,682
Watch there be a record breaking blizzard on opening weekend that completely shuts down the Northeast, Midwest, and upper South.
 
Dahbomb

Dahbomb

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,616
Man how many times we gonna have OPs make bets on BO and then get obliterated?

Detective Pikachu, Endgame and then Lion King....

I would see it as a big failure on Disneys part if RoS doesn't make over 200 million opening weekend.
 
FTF

FTF

Member
Oct 28, 2017
28,364
New York
There are definitely arguments for both sides:

Under $200m: Very strong competition for a SW release (Jumanji 2's second weekend and Cats and Bombshell are both very wide releases that all will suck theaters/screens...e.g. why Infinity War opened in 300+ more theaters than TFA), coming off Solo and TLJ divisiveness (it's real even if exaggerated on the internet), Star Wars fatigue, $200m is still a huge fucking # that hardly ever happens.

Over $200m: End of the trilogy hype, ROTS opening huge even after the turd AotC (for those saying TLJ will hurt it...and this is the big one for me as even after the crap fests that were AotC and PM, ROTS opened huge as it was the end of the trilogy, etc.), SW brand will be on a high with Madelorine and Fallen Order also out, SW is still huge is US.

I also think we'll know by this time next week if it'll hit $200m by the press release/word on the pre-sale #s...if it's something like TROS is top 3-5 presales of all time, $200m on track...but if it's like huge pre-sale #s for TROS, I'll be concerned.

$185m is the floor though.

Maxim726x said:
What did Ep 8 bring in opening weekend?

Because it will probably be less than that.
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$220m.
 
sir_crocodile

sir_crocodile

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,481
Not betting, but I'd say over $200M. None of my friends liked TLJ but they're still going to see ROS because of palpatine

The emperor is a draw brothter
 
theBmZ

theBmZ

Avenger
Oct 29, 2017
2,125
Over 200m. The sequel to the greatest Star Wars film is sure to make a killing.
 
neon_dream

neon_dream

Member
Dec 18, 2017
3,644
You're completely high. It's going to make a ton.

Debate over quality aside, it's the end of the trilogy and there will be a ton of manufactured hype.
 
HeartlessNobody2134

HeartlessNobody2134

Member
May 10, 2018
5,676
Under $200 million would be a major disappointment so I can't see it happening. A better bet would have been would it make more than either TLJ or TFA.
 

Mr.Awesome

Banned
Nov 4, 2017
3,077
Since tlj was absolute garbage, I could see people not showing up. But I doubt itll have too much of an effect. Star Wars is Star Wars.
 
FTF

FTF

Member
Oct 28, 2017
28,364
New York
HeartlessNobody2134 said:
Under $200 million would be a major disappointment so I can't see it happening. A better bet would have been would it make more than either TLJ or TFA.
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Zero chance it makes more than TFA ow and TLJ will be tough too.

I'm saying $210m atm and this is going to be very close.

Mr.Awesome said:
Since tlj was absolute garbage, I could see people not showing up. But I doubt itll have too much of an effect. Star Wars is Star Wars.
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This is the ROTS not opening well because of AotC (and PM) argument. It may not hold any water.
 
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