Automation will probably wreak havoc during U.S job loss

[cnorwood]

With COVID-19 wiping out many jobs and unemployment is like 20% and rising I think we have 2 shitty things we will have to deal with.
1. A bigger job market means less job security and more power given to those in power. Forcing people to do more work under the threat of finding an easy replacement.
2. Companies that still employ people but had to do layoffs will try to replace those jobs with automation

I get this from the book The Second Machine Age (recommend), where two MIT economists go around to many of the top technology companies in the U.S around 2013 and speak about the desire to automate many routine tasks. An excerpt from the book is an admission from one CEO about the last recession.

A few years ago, we had a very candid discussion with one CEO, and he explained that he knew for over a decade that advances in information technology had rendered many routine information-processing jobs superfluous. At the same time, when profits and revenues are on the rise, it can be hard to eliminate jobs. When the recession came, business as usual obviously was not sustainable, which made it easier to implement a round of painful streamlining and layoffs. As the recession ended and profits and demand returned, the jobs doing routine work were not restored. Like so many other companies in recent years, his organization found it could use technology to scale up without these workers.

Click to shrink...

Basically this says that one CEO they spoke to said that they knew that automation for certain jobs existed but its hard to fire someone and flat out replace them with a machine, especially when profits are going up. However after the recession it was easier to replace the already lost jobs with technology as more money has been made.

The last 10 years has been filled with a crazy amount of technological progress especially in the business side. This would be the perfect time to replace people with technology as you can even mask it with health reasons in certain industries and for others you already had to lay people off from no fault of your own.

 

[nsilvias]

someone posted a video regarding the fashion industry during covid and the dude basically said companies are going to start moving towards automation

 

[Freezasaurus]

This was always going to happen. COVID just sped up the timeline.

 

[captmcblack]

Ironically I wrote a thesis paper in part based on insights I got from that book, lol.

UBI gonna need to happen, sooner rather than later.

 

[Freezasaurus]

Ironically I wrote a thesis paper in part based on insights I got from that book, lol.

UBI gonna need to happen, sooner rather than later.

Click to shrink...

Republicans will fight it every step of the way. They'd be perfectly happy with 90% of the population fighting over scraps.

 

[Titik]

It's either going to be a new form of redistribution of resources or there will be riots.

Basically we either go the French revolution route or the British gradual parliamentary reform route. Either way things won't stay the same.

 

[Chromie]

Republicans will fight it every step of the way. They'd be perfectly happy with 90% of the population fighting over scraps.

Click to shrink...

Eventually we're going to crack and stop being lazy. It's just a matter of when.

 

[bionic77]

This has already been going on for many decades.

You need unions to combat it. Unfortunately most Americans are really stupid and think unions are bad for you.

 

[Brazil]

someone posted a video regarding the fashion industry during covid and the dude basically said companies are going to start moving towards automation

Click to shrink...

Everyone is moving towards automation with increased haste now that they have first-hand proof that human employees are an unnecessary risk.

Shit's going down sooner than expected.

 

[PennyStonks]

This was always going to happen. COVID just sped up the timeline.

Click to shrink...

Just sucks we should have been done with the planning for long term 20%+ unemployment 20 years ago but we're still cavemen.

 

[krazen]

I would make an argument automation does require money and in turn requires credit...something that nobody's has access to now and won't in the near future. So in a fucked up way my argument is that this probably SLOWED the inevitable slide (not much, a couple of years)

 

[-COOLIO-]

This was always going to happen. COVID just sped up the timeline.

Click to shrink...

yeah pretty much.

i'm working on app to automate a lot of front end labor in restaurants and interest has been picking up lately for obvious reasons

 

[feline fury]

I would make an argument automation does require money and in turn requires credit...something that nobody's has access to now and won't in the near future. So in a fucked up way my argument is that this probably SLOWED the inevitable slide (not much, a couple of years)

Click to shrink...

The big companies that are more likely to embrace automation has easy access to cheap credit.

 

[mreddie]

Rona just sped up the timeline, it was coming sooner or later. It just now became sooner.

 

[krazen]

The big companies that are more likely to embrace automation has easy access to cheap credit.

Click to shrink...

Yes and no. Those that have the cash were already going in that direction and covid is just an annoyance. So that's already in the books, cant really call it an acceleration.

If you laid off a large amount of staff because your margins dipped that low, you probably don't have the cash in the near future to replace them until the economy swings back up. I see it as the 2008 recovery but worse. Five years after an official 'recovery' people are gonna look around and feel like nothings changed, but worse because thats when there's enough capital and motivation to speed up the chopping block

 

[TSM]

I'd imagine one of the big "lessons" many companies will learn from this is that they were too slow automating as much as possible and set themselves up for failure during a pandemic.

 

[oofouchugh]

Automation of the "low skill" work force has always been the goal. Thats basically the entire point of the industrial revolution, reduce the need for a human workforce as much as possible.

 

[cnorwood]

This has already been going on for many decades.

You need unions to combat it. Unfortunately most Americans are really stupid and think unions are bad for you.

Click to shrink...

Yes but this is going to now put it into overdrive, instead of automation quietly phasing people out of work its going to quickly do it because now you don't have to feel bad when firing people. This is probably the iceburg

 

[thewienke]

I'm mostly less concerned with automation so much as the continuing "extract more productivity out of current workers" mindset that I've seen at most every job I've ever held.

A counterweight to automation is that good old "resistance to change" thing where middle and upper management hate implementing newer and more efficient systems. For every automation success story via software there's at least one (maybe more) stories of implementation gone horribly.

I'm not saying automation isn't a concern so much as I don't think it's going to happen overnight because there's an entrenchment to how business is handled and I think many firms would rather just hire people back instead of trying to figure out new software that they don't understand or aren't experts in. The issue to me will be when firms will hire back 80 people when they had 100 people on staff for instance. It's easier to squeeze productivity out of your staff in a rough labor market.

 

[DukeBlueBall]

I don't like UBI. There is psychological and health impacts of people drawing a salary doing nothing.

We need a system that can incentivize people to make money doing something. Tree-planting, exercising, going to community college, volunteering etc.

 

[Mesoian]

Yup, which is why we should be looking at UBI NOW instead of 5 years from now when automation causes another massive spike in unemployement.

But we won't do that because why would we try to get ahead of a problem?

 

[Kahoots]

Technology makes some labour redundant and that unfortunately causes localised hardship, but benefits society as a whole.

 

[Dark Knight]

Shit's going down sooner than expected.

Click to shrink...

So.. accelerationism is a real thing? Our shitty government is bringing the modern notion of capitalism to its knees with its increasingly terrible policies and actions. Everything they do is a shortsighted grift that's short circuiting our fall. I'm not a proponent of accelerationism but damned if this isn't some kind of case study.

We definitely wouldn't be this closer to the fall if we had literally any other admin in place.

 

[Mesoian]

So.. accelerationism is a real thing? Our shitty government is bringing the modern notion of capitalism to its knees with its increasingly terrible policies and actions. Everything they do is a shortsighted grift that's short circuiting our fall. I'm not a proponent of accelerationism but damned if this isn't some kind of case study.

We definitely wouldn't be this closer to the fall if we had literally any other admin in place.

Click to shrink...

But her emails.

 

[cnorwood]

I don't like UBI. There is psychological and health impacts of people drawing a salary doing nothing.

We need a system that can incentivize people to make money doing something. Tree-planting, exercising, going to community college, volunteering etc.

Click to shrink...

What if you give people housing, food, clothing, internet, and maybe a bit of spending money to help move money outside of just the essentials in an economy then for extras you "work" (whatever people will spend their spending money on).






Now most of that doesn't matter probably in like 2 decades when 3d printing matures.

 

[captive]

I don't like UBI. There is psychological and health impacts of people drawing a salary doing nothing.

We need a system that can incentivize people to make money doing something. Tree-planting, exercising, going to community college, volunteering etc.

Click to shrink...

the actual real world studies on the mental health effects on UBI say otherwise.

 

[Brinbe]

Why do you think people have been crowing about UBI for the last half decade? The writing had been on the wall way before COVID. Not everyone can work and even for those who have jobs, the cost of living has moved way past what people can skimp together on social assistance for housing and eating and living.

Unfortunately, I don't know if anyone will do anything about it. It doesn't seem that way even in a crisis. It seems people will just accept having skid rows in every city

Wealth inequality is just widening at this point unabated.

 

[Pollen]

A combination of both automation and the increased outsourcing of manufacturing to foreign nations was eventually going to catch up to our economies. The only thing is that there is a very specific ruling class in the USA, and I'm guessing other nations, that are vehemently opposed to adapting to the new landscape.

Also, people, in every nation, are told that work is what gives our lives purpose and meaning. It's going to take a lot of education and awareness to shift the populace's thinking into accepting universal basic income and more safety social nets, even in more typically progressive nations. What I'm interested in seeing is how automation will impact developing nations that are in the process of economic prosperity. Will automation force more manufacturing jobs homeside?

 

[DukeBlueBall]

the actual real world studies on the mental health effects on UBI say otherwise.

Click to shrink...

The ones I've seen compare them to the current systems with poverty and inequality. No doubt UBI is better.

Either would be fine. Personally I prefer wage subsidies and getting paid for social outdoor activities.

 

[mAcOdIn]

I don't like UBI. There is psychological and health impacts of people drawing a salary doing nothing.

We need a system that can incentivize people to make money doing something. Tree-planting, exercising, going to community college, volunteering etc.

Click to shrink...

Any UBI would probably never be enough to live comfortably, maybe some people would only work part-time, maybe only do a side hussle, but I imagine very few people are going to just sit at home with just their UBI money and live in abject poverty.

 

[Catshade]

It won't be that simple for the fact that creating more jobs for humans = election brownie points.

 

[Brazil]

So.. accelerationism is a real thing? Our shitty government is bringing the modern notion of capitalism to its knees with its increasingly terrible policies and actions. Everything they do is a shortsighted grift that's short circuiting our fall. I'm not a proponent of accelerationism but damned if this isn't some kind of case study.

We definitely wouldn't be this closer to the fall if we had literally any other admin in place.

Click to shrink...

The advance of automation is something that the entire capitalist world will have to face roughly at the same time. The capitalist class around the world is seeing the effect that this pandemic has on production, regardless of who's in the top office where they do their business, and so things will start moving faster everywhere.

Besides, capitalism is a shortsighted grift by definition. These problems would all invariably show up at one point or another even if all we had for the past 50 years were reasonable, close to the center governments.

 

[Deleted member 25600]

I'm against Guaranteed income for the reason that it will just be a crutch to prop up a failing system. The money will still end up in the pockets of the companies that made Guaranteed income necessary in the first place. There will be temporary relief, but over time the same problems will emerge again.

Just off the top of my head a more equitable solution would be to nationalise these automated resources and distribute the profits according to need. Unrealistic? Of course! But it creates a relatively peaceful method of wealth reditribution and turns job automation into a semi-positive thing.The machines that took peoples jobs away would end up supporting the incomes those same people.

Also; sets up a nice path forward to Communism.

 

[Cipherr]

I have been watching attitudes in the government with regards to Covid, for a preview of what it will look like when automation starts wiping out jobs.

Not sure what I expected, but people had better pray the left is in power when it happens or there's going to just be scores of people left for dead.

 

[-COOLIO-]

This has already been going on for many decades.

You need unions to combat it. Unfortunately most Americans are really stupid and think unions are bad for you.

Click to shrink...

The goal shouldn't be to combat automation. It's to share the wealth and productivity gains more fairly via programs like Ubi

 

[-COOLIO-]

I'm against Guaranteed income for the reason that it will just be a crutch to prop up a failing system. The money will still end up in the pockets of the companies that made Guaranteed income necessary in the first place. There will be temporary relief, but over time the same problems will emerge again.

Just off the top of my head a more equitable solution would be to nationalise these automated resources and distribute the profits according to need. Unrealistic? Of course! But it creates a relatively peaceful method of wealth reditribution and turns job automation into a semi-positive thing.The machines that took peoples jobs away would end up supporting the incomes those same people.

Also; sets up a nice path forward to Communism.

Click to shrink...

That basically sounds like Ubi though. Or conditional basic income

 

[DarthWalden]

Bring on UBI, I don't love it but it's the only way forward considering ballooning populations combined with automation.

 

[Deleted member 25600]

That basically sounds like Ubi though. Or conditional basic income

Click to shrink...

It's essentially Bernard Friot's UBI theory, but without the universal element to it. In theory you could switch to universal payments once enough automation has taken place.

Edit: wrong link. Though actually that other link was also a good explanation.

Le Salaire à Vie: The Socialist Alternative to Universal Basic Income

We are in a stage in our societal and economic development when we are beginning to see major problems on the horizon. One of these being…

medium.com

 

[ToddBonzalez]

Yeah. We're gonna be fucked without UBI. There just aren't going to be enough jobs for everybody, plain and simple.

 

[Paranormal Panini]

Technology makes some labour redundant and that unfortunately causes localised hardship, but benefits society as a whole.

Click to shrink...

Exactly.

It happened before and the job market adapted.

To be fair, I'd be a lot more concerned about automation and its influence on the job market if I'd be living in the USA.

A combination of both automation and the increased outsourcing of manufacturing to foreign nations was eventually going to catch up to our economies. The only thing is that there is a very specific ruling class in the USA, and I'm guessing other nations, that are vehemently opposed to adapting to the new landscape.

Click to shrink...

One of the lessons learned of Covid 19 might also be that reliable manufacturing is better than cheap manufacturing. In Europe there are discussions to bring back production. At least to some degree.

 

[Fallout-NL]

I don't like UBI. There is psychological and health impacts of people drawing a salary doing nothing.

Click to shrink...

Nonsense. Utter, utter nonsense.

 

[Excuse me]

Nonsense. Utter, utter nonsense.

Click to shrink...

Yeah, this. UBI is for basic necessities, most people want more. They want to own a house, eat out, etc. There might be small percentage of people who would just live out from the UBI and become totally passive. But at the same time there are people who will become entrepreneurs because their basic living is secured.

But I don't see how UBI is going work without some sort of governmental rent freeze. Why not just increase rents long as government is paying? It's already happening. You have major cities where people work but still need social security money in order to cover all living expenses since rent can be over 60% of your income.

 

[-COOLIO-]

I don't like UBI. There is psychological and health impacts of people drawing a salary doing nothing.

We need a system that can incentivize people to make money doing something. Tree-planting, exercising, going to community college, volunteering etc.

Click to shrink...

People still do stuff on Ubi. In fact, It's often more meaningful and impactful to society. Like community work, child rearing, or higher education. Every Ubi study I know of has noted a positive effect on mental health.

And as others have noted, people will still want to work to have more than the next guy

 

[mAcOdIn]

And as others have noted, people will still want to work to have more than the next guy

Click to shrink...

Right? I mean, they already do, it's so annoying to hear people say "if we raise taxes no-one will work hard and start new businesses because either they make 20k a year or become the world's first trillionaire but there's no value in working for 100k when you can just coast with no responsibility and earn a cool 20k a year!" It's just nonsense. Of course they may try and find way to move themselves or their money around to keep as much as possible but it's not like Jeff Bezos wouldn't have started Amazon if he couldn't become a billionaire.

 

[Xando]

The job market will adapt. Just like it did when electricity, cars and trains were introduced.

 

[Zok310]

This has already been going on for many decades.

You need unions to combat it. Unfortunately most Americans are really stupid and think unions are bad for you.

Click to shrink...

hmm, been working union jobs my whole adult life here in NY. From my experience they cant do jack shit to stop or slow automation. Hell i have seen unions walk away from locations because automation got so out of control it was literally not worth it to stick around and rep the few cba employees that remained.

 

[Kernel]

Republicans will fight it every step of the way. They'd be perfectly happy with 90% of the population fighting over scraps.

Click to shrink...

It's interesting how people like Zuckerberg, Musk and Yang are for it.

Hell Milton Friedman supported a similar idea.

UBI will allow the right to eliminate unemployment insurance, welfare, minimum wage and other services. They can even limit it to citizens (aka white people).

I've heard the term "Coupon capitalism".

 

[mAcOdIn]

It's interesting how people like Zuckerberg, Musk and Yang are for it.

Hell Milton Friedman supported a similar idea.

UBI will allow the right to eliminate unemployment insurance, welfare, minimum wage and other services. They can even limit it to citizens (aka white people).

I've heard the term "Coupon capitalism".

Click to shrink...

I mean, all those gripes can just as easily be leveled against our current system without UBI, we can limit who gets it and there's already plenty of conservatives that'd love to get rid of unemployment, the minimum wage and the like. If you don't have a UBI you're essentially demanding human beings work as efficiently as machines, if society hasn't decided to nationalize the companies and dole out all the profits or tax them high enough to just fund a UBI then the honest truth is that the minimum wage is likely gone in that nightmare scenario regardless because the Republican mindset has won in this country and you have to make it easy for employers to higher employees and the only way to do that is to pay them less.

 

[KDR_11k]

Honestly I don't think automation is going to be a big factor right now. You automate when the costs of automating are lower than the costs of just having someone do that job. With high unemployment wages will fall and thus getting cheap labor to do your tasks becomes much easier than automation. Especially since it turns out that a lot of low skill labor is only low skill for humans, while a machine may be able to do the strict register duties of a cashier job it cannot also stock shelves, watch out for crime, answer questions, etc. You could install separate machines for all of these tasks but that'll get very expensive quickly. Generally anything that gets near customers, even if it's just moving to the same shelves, is going to be tricky for a machine to do accurately and safely. A robot nurse would have to be insanely complex to match the abilities of a human nurse.

And ultimately, how much would automation help with the pandemic? Businesses get shut down because they're unsafe for consumers and factories still need engineers to maintain the machinery.

 

[soulmatic]

It's coming sooner than we think it is.