Australia to get US Nuclear-powered submarines - New AUKUS Defence agreement

The Fabled Englishman · Sep 18, 2021

Joni said:
Let's hope European nations take the lesson, and cut the ties to the US military complex. The US cannot be considered a trustworthy partner.

The French (and, by extension, the EU) are in a pretty difficult position now. What we are potentially about to see is the largest re-alignment of global power structures since the beginning of the Cold War. It seems evident that the US is placing NATO on the backburner in favour of an "Anglo+" alliance comprising the UK, US and Australia + potentially, SEA middle powers such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan - aka everyone who has "skin in the game" on the China front. Presumably, the US believes it can "have its cake and eat it", so to speak, by realigning towards China while keeping the EU in its back pocket with minimal commitment.

The EU may therefore have to fend for itself, but it's not entirely clear what the path forward is. The French have long-pushed for the prospect of a standing EU army, but the Germans are indifferent to the prospect and the Eastern Europeans/Balkans prefer the involvement of the US against Russia. This more or less leaves the French in no man's land with few prospects of exercising influence over global geopolitics.

Deleted member 721 · Sep 18, 2021

Asator said:
The dumbest part about this whole thing, besides estranging France (which is like the 6th biggest navy in the world or something, so not something you'd want to do if possible) is that they also lost a chance to get India within the US sphere of influence.

India is a bit peculiar since it's not on good term with China, but also not on good term with the US or the UK due to them opposing India when they started their nuclear program in response to Pakistan's. India is, however, on good terms with France and Russia because they didn't oppose them. If AUKUS treated France better, France might've tried to bring in India with them too, thus possibly bringing India out of Russia's sphere of influence.

Fat chances of that happening now.

In what ways exactly?

Treating China as a threat in the pacific area is not yellow peril rethoric. They have a very bellicose attitude, and multiple nations have issues with them (like Japan, India or Vietnam for example) and view them as a threat.

You are full of bs and you know it. There's nothing that supports the idea of china going to war, and the countries you mentioned want to continue to build good relations in the region and are not interested in war, they are not preparing to war or increasing the discourse against the "china menace" that you say its happening, you say its not yellow peril but it obviously is, even more so coming from western countries.

Palette Swap · Sep 18, 2021

Between this and "guess what, we bombed civilians to shit, sorry", yesterday was a great reminder that America remains an unreliable international actor.

i_am_ben · Sep 18, 2021

Eylos said:
You are full of bs and you know it. There's nothing that supports the idea of china going to war, and the countries you mentioned want to continue to build good relations in the region and are not interested in war, they are not preparing to war or increasing the discourse against the "china menace" that you say its happening, you say its not yellow peril but it obviously is, even more so coming from western countries.

No one wants war but China is involved in a number of concerning border disputes where it is actively pushing its interests (Most notably along the border with India and south China sea) so your assessment seems a bit rosy.

In fact, both Australia and the Philippines have sought to increase their ties with the USA recently due to concerns with China.

UnderNewOwnership · Sep 18, 2021

Asator said:
India is a bit peculiar since it's not on good term with China, but also not on good term with the US or the UK due to them opposing India when they started their nuclear program in response to Pakistan's. India is, however, on good terms with France and Russia because they didn't oppose them. If AUKUS treated France better, France might've tried to bring in India with them too, thus possibly bringing India out of Russia's sphere of influence.

While US indifference towards India could have been explained via the need to keep Pakistan happy in order to allow passage into Afghanistan during the war, now that the whole shitshow is shuttered, continuing to stonewall India is an utterly baffling decision. They're the most credible counter-piece to China in the region. A loose collection of small ASEAN countries, some with territorial grievances towards each other, Japan, which nobody else really likes, and Australia which is too far away from the rest, does not constitute a great cordon sanitaire to the CCP's ambitions/designs in the area.

It feels to me like Biden's team pulled out some dusty Obama era papers, kicked off the silverfishes snacking on the edges, and made a few tweaks with white-out.

EDIT: It's also tellingly interesting that Canada is mentioned 0 times in this endeavour.

Asator · Sep 18, 2021

Oooh boy.

Eylos said:
You are full of bs and you know it.

No I'm not. It's not my fault if you're not familiar with the matter.

There's nothing that supports the idea of china going to war

China has been increasing its military massively over the past decades, and they now have more ships than the US navy. They've also been building artificial islands as bases to operate ships and aircrafts (and claim that these islands are part of their national waters, which goes against international conventions btw), which is clearly an aggressive move. You don't build forward bases for defence.

Despite a 2016 ruling by an international body that China was violating the Law of the Sea Convention with some of its maritime claims, China has continued building up its infrastructure in the South China Sea. In 2018, China placed anti-ship cruise missiles and long-range surface-to-air missiles on the contested Spratly Islands, according to a recent Pentagon report.

Source

China makes ridiculous sea claims that clearly go against international laws and antagonize its neighbors:

According to International Law, a country's territorial water limits extend 12 nautical miles from its coastline. The same standard applies to territorial airspace.

From the same source as above

and the countries you mentioned want to continue to build good relations in the region and are not interested in war, they are not preparing to war or increasing the discourse against the "china menace" that you say its happening, you say its not yellow peril but it obviously is, even more so coming from western countries.

"Japan defence ministry seeks $50 billion budget"

Japan defence ministry seeks $50 billion budget - France 24

Japan defence ministry seeks $50 billion budget

www.france24.com

From the article:

Japan's defence ministry on Tuesday unveiled a $50 billion budget request as the country keeps military spending at record levels in the face of growing threats from China and North Korea.

[...]

Tokyo's military readiness is mainly concerned with growing threats from Beijing and Pyongyang, said Hideshi Takesada, a defence expert and visiting professor at Takushoku University.

"The military strength of the People's Liberation Army of China is growing faster than we thought ... while threats from North Korea's missile and nuclear development have never really diminished," Takesada told AFP.

India-China clash: 20 Indian troops killed in Ladakh fighting

India-China clash: 20 Indian troops killed in Ladakh fighting

It is the first deadly skirmish in decades between the two regional powers at their disputed border.

www.bbc.com

Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam contest China's claim to almost all of the South China Sea. The countries have wrangled over territory for decades but tension has steadily increased in recent years.
[...]
In its annual defence review, Japan said China's naval activities were a matter of grave concern, accusing Beijing of trying to alter the status quo in the East and South China Seas.

Source

"Japan's air force faces a 'relentless' burden, imposed by China"

Japan's air force faces a 'relentless' burden, imposed by China | CNN

Japanese fighter pilot Lt. Col. Takamichi Shirota says his country is under increasing pressure from the air. Analysts say it's a pressure faced by few other nations.

edition.cnn.com

It happened to Japan's Air Self Defense Force (JASDF) 947 times in the last fiscal year ending in March. The culprit in most of those cases, warplanes from China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF).

"Surge in Chinese incursions leaves Japan scrambling on Senkakus"

Surge in Chinese incursions leaves Japan scrambling on Senkakus

Tokyo weighs how to legally respond, including direct shots at offending vessels

asia.nikkei.com

The upsurge in Chinese incursions into Japanese waters near the Senkaku Islands has sent Japan searching for a response strategy based on law, including a clear rule on when it can fire on foreign vessels.

Official Chinese vessels entered waters surrounding the Japan-administered Senkakus, claimed by China as the Diaoyu, on six separate days in February -- the most in four and a half years.

But sure, they have great relations and it's just the bad wEsTerN cOunTriEs having a case of yellow fever... Like Japan and India 🙄

Mechaplum · Sep 18, 2021

UnderNewOwnership said:
While US indifference towards India could have been explained via the need to keep Pakistan happy in order to allow passage into Afghanistan during the war, now that the whole shitshow is shuttered, continuing to stonewall India is an utterly baffling decision. They're the most credible counter-piece to China in the region. A loose collection of small ASEAN countries, some with territorial grievances towards each other, Japan, which nobody else really likes, and Australia which is too far away from the rest, does not constitute a great cordon sanitaire to the CCP's ambitions/designs in the area.

It feels to me like Biden's team pulled out some dusty Obama era papers, kicked off the silverfishes snacking on the edges, and made a few tweaks with white-out.

EDIT: It's also tellingly interesting that Canada is mentioned 0 times in this endeavour.

India absolutely does not need any external pressure to be wary of China. Both of them are butting heads over the source of their main rivers, and hence their very existence. Every single strategic move China makes will have to take India into account and vice versa, even in vacuum without any other countries.

danm999 · Sep 18, 2021

Palette Swap said:
Between this and "guess what, we bombed civilians to shit, sorry", yesterday was a great reminder that America remains an unreliable international actor.

The argument against China as a global hegemon is generally they'd be a more brutal and uncaring hegemon than the United States has been.

For Australia I'd probably guess that's true; other parts of the world I'm not so sure. Certainly the people of Afghanistan might have some thoughts about that because, as you say, they turned around and said they exploded civilians over bad intel this week and that sort of carnage from the US drone program isn't uncommon.

The United States has set a very high bar for brutality in places like the Middle East, Africa and South East Asia. I'm skeptical China could ever surpass it.

But that seems to be what drives the geopolitical strategy, China is being aggressive so any military buildup is permissible. Of course they can also justify their own buildup similarly, and the tensions keep escalating.

I generally don't trust it at all as an argument because it seems to be a blank check for endless defense spending, which is why we see so many goofy defense projects (people are getting rich without really having to be that credulous) and all this militarization is going to worsen climate change anyway which is the thing we should all (the West and China) actually be afraid of.

JahIthBer · Sep 18, 2021

The Fabled Englishman said:
The French (and, by extension, the EU) are in a pretty difficult position now. What we are potentially about to see is the largest re-alignment of global power structures since the beginning of the Cold War. It seems evident that the US is placing NATO on the backburner in favour of an "Anglo+" alliance comprising the UK, US and Australia + potentially, SEA middle powers such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan - aka everyone who has "skin in the game" on the China front. Presumably, the US believes it can "have its cake and eat it", so to speak, by realigning towards China while keeping the EU in its back pocket with minimal commitment.

The EU may therefore have to fend for itself, but it's not entirely clear what the path forward is. The French have long-pushed for the prospect of a standing EU army, but the Germans are indifferent to the prospect and the Eastern Europeans/Balkans prefer the involvement of the US against Russia. This more or less leaves the French in no man's land with few prospects of exercising influence over global geopolitics.

What does the EU have to worry about though? Russia? Their economy is simply not impressive & they have a poorly maintained outdated military, Russia also rely heavily on Germany/EU to purchase their gas.
EU if you pretend it's a country has the biggest economy on the planet, they can afford their own military.

igordennis · Sep 18, 2021

Window said:
The French Foreign Minister said he found about the deal once it was public and in the news. I can see why they would be upset about not being given a heads up.

Literally the most higher up people involved in the project learnt about this from the press release. No one working on the project had any idea this was coming - 40+ billion dollar contracts don't really ever need to activate the Termination clauses like this - the engineers and my co-workers that have been working in this project for 3+ years were in shock that the government just up and decided to write-off the years of work (and billions of dollars) everyone had put in at this point, production was at full speed the day of the announcement, with plans far ahead in the future set etc.

Funkallero · Sep 18, 2021

Looks like USA don't give 2 fucks about French, Biden is applying the same foreign diplomacy as Trump, aka America First.
The only difference is that you knew what to expect with Trump…

Asator · Sep 18, 2021

The Fabled Englishman said:
The French (and, by extension, the EU) are in a pretty difficult position now. What we are potentially about to see is the largest re-alignment of global power structures since the beginning of the Cold War. It seems evident that the US is placing NATO on the backburner in favour of an "Anglo+" alliance comprising the UK, US and Australia + potentially, SEA middle powers such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan - aka everyone who has "skin in the game" on the China front. Presumably, the US believes it can "have its cake and eat it", so to speak, by realigning towards China while keeping the EU in its back pocket with minimal commitment.

The EU may therefore have to fend for itself, but it's not entirely clear what the path forward is. The French have long-pushed for the prospect of a standing EU army, but the Germans are indifferent to the prospect and the Eastern Europeans/Balkans prefer the involvement of the US against Russia. This more or less leaves the French in no man's land with few prospects of exercising influence over global geopolitics.

I think we're going to see a "NATO of the Pacific" sooner rather than later, but if the AUKUS agreements is its precursor, then why the hell did they choose to leave France out of it? France has territory in the area, it has more reason to be in it than the UK for crying out loud. It's like it was something that the trump administration was working on and they just picked it up and pushed it through without looking at it first or something. Such a bad look.

UnderNewOwnership said:
While US indifference towards India could have been explained via the need to keep Pakistan happy in order to allow passage into Afghanistan during the war, now that the whole shitshow is shuttered, continuing to stonewall India is an utterly baffling decision. They're the most credible counter-piece to China in the region. A loose collection of small ASEAN countries, some with territorial grievances towards each other, Japan, which nobody else really likes, and Australia which is too far away from the rest, does not constitute a great cordon sanitaire to the CCP's ambitions/designs in the area.

It feels to me like Biden's team pulled out some dusty Obama era papers, kicked off the silverfishes snacking on the edges, and made a few tweaks with white-out.

EDIT: It's also tellingly interesting that Canada is mentioned 0 times in this endeavour.

Agreed, although it's worth noting that Japan military is quite massive despite being a "self defense force". It's bigger than the UK or France in all areas I believe.

Canada's absence is indeed weird, and so is NZ's for that matter. I'd have imagined that they would have wanted all members of the five eyes on this agreement.
Maybe the Canadian and NZ government refused to join? NZ has already said that they won't let Australia's nuclear submarines into their water after all.

JahIthBer said:
What does the EU have to worry about though? Russia? Their economy is simply not impressive & they have a poorly maintained outdated military, Russia also rely heavily on Germany/EU to purchase their gas.
EU if you pretend it's a country has the biggest economy on the planet, they can afford their own military.

Eastern Europe is absolutely paranoid about Russia for historical reasons, you won't get them to relax on this even if the chances of Russia attacking a NATO/EU country is almost nonexistent. Putin behaving like he does only put them more on edge.

And while France + Germany alone would be enough to dwarf Russia on any economic, demographic or military matter, there's just no political will for it outside of France. Hell, the German defense minister even said that strategic autonomy for Europe is "an illusion" without NATO or the US. Good luck getting anything done with that kind of people in charge.

KillLaCam · Sep 18, 2021

Tya said:
Poor, innocent China played no part. Nope.

Who said that? Cold War 2 isn't only in Asia anyway

UnderNewOwnership · Sep 18, 2021

Asator said:
I think we're going to see a "NATO of the Pacific" sooner rather than later, but if the AUKUS agreements is its precursor, then why the hell did they choose to leave France out of it? France has territory in the area, it has more reason to be in it than the UK for crying out loud. It's like it was something that the trump administration was working on and they just picked it up and pushed it through without looking at it first or something. Such a bad look.

I guess it's a case of USA gon' continue USA-ing, that is, muscling out everybody from what they see as their """rightful""" zone of interest. After all, it's not like it would be the first time. They did that to the old colonial empires after the war. They were doing it to the British and the Dutch before the war. The British chose to keep quiet since the Japanese Empire had become a much closer and more urgent threat; not least due to the stealth ultimatum given by the US at the Washington Naval Conference, where the UK had to choose between continuing its traditional alliance with the Japanese Empire or becoming part of the US-led Pacific effort.

Asator said:
Canada's absence is indeed weird, and so is NZ's for that matter. I'd have imagined that they would have wanted all members of the five eyes on this agreement.
Maybe the Canadian and NZ government refused to join? NZ has already said that they won't let Australia's nuclear submarines into their water after all.

My suspicion is that the US government is deliberately snubbing Canada due to the Northern Passage dispute. It's also possible that some in the US state apparatus believe the Canadian government has been infiltrated by Chinese informants.
The NZ government could likely be a silent partner in the affair, so as to maintain their public non-interference stance.

KillLaCam · Sep 18, 2021

Ramsay said:
At the end of the day, the CCP started the new Cold War years ago.

The unipolar power of the US definitely bares some responsibility . Countries like Iran and NK don't just want nukes because theyre the bad guys or whatever

Donthizz · Sep 18, 2021

Matter of time before India & Japan join five eyes.

Maledict · Sep 18, 2021

JahIthBer said:
What does the EU have to worry about though? Russia? Their economy is simply not impressive & they have a poorly maintained outdated military, Russia also rely heavily on Germany/EU to purchase their gas.
EU if you pretend it's a country has the biggest economy on the planet, they can afford their own military.

This is wildly inaccurate. Putin has spent the last 15 years, and the last decade in particular, upgrading and modernising the Russian military. It's now regarded as being much more sophisticated and capable than it was on the 90s.

Heck, their actions in recent conflicts show that.

Plus Russia won't just invade with tanks, it will be little green men in the Baltic countries or Poland first. That's their playbook and western defence forces aren't really trained or equipped for it.

blaze · Sep 18, 2021

Funkallero said:
Looks like USA don't give 2 fucks about French, Biden is applying the same foreign diplomacy as Trump, aka America First.
The only difference is that you knew what to expect with Trump…

Of course they don't, this argument is about the US wanting to take the lead in the Indo-Pacific strategy and Australia being a vital part of that - this along with Quad is part of the larger US strategy for the region. I imagine the Americans also didn't want to be in a position of following the French plan especially if they didn't agree with the way the EU wanted to manage the whole thing too (the French don't particularly agree with the stance of other EU countries either).

You can absolutely understand why France are upset about it given the visuals of it reducing their global influence and being pushed to the side but I don't think there would have ever been a consideration for them joining with the scope of the pact between AUKUS (tech sharing etc.), at most they'll be brought in as a partner to the alliance.

Asator said:
Canada's absence is indeed weird, and so is NZ's for that matter. I'd have imagined that they would have wanted all members of the five eyes on this agreement.
Maybe the Canadian and NZ government refused to join? NZ has already said that they won't let Australia's nuclear submarines into their water after all.

The Canadian and NZ governments both indicated they were told about it pretty much a day before the announcement, I imagine the truth is more that they don't need to be officially part of it since it's unlikely they'd be building the kind of technology the US/UK is willing to share with Australia, far better for appearance to avoid being part of it, they're completely entwined with each other in other security areas anyway so it's not like it's going to affect their relationships.

Asator · Sep 18, 2021

UnderNewOwnership said:
I guess it's a case of USA gon' continue USA-ing, that is, muscling out everybody from what they see as their """rightful""" zone of interest.

It's possible, but I just don't get what they'd gain from that. Having the French on your side is literally free ships after all, not to mention the sharing of intelligence. And as the tensions in the pacific continue to grow, it's not impossible that France might expand their bases in New Caledonia. That would have been a free base of operation had the French agreed to share it (which is a bit unlikely admitedly, but we don't know how things will go in the future).

My suspicion is that the US government is deliberately snubbing Canada due to the Northern Passage dispute. It's also possible that some in the US state apparatus believe the Canadian government has been infiltrated by Chinese informants.
The NZ government could likely be a silent partner in the affair, so as to maintain their public non-interference stance.

I'm not super familiar with the Northern Passage dispute, but wouldn't that be a bit... Petty? At least it doesn't feel like it's worth not having Canada over it.

As for the informants... Eh, I think all government have probably been infiltrated to some degree (and not just by China), so it'd have to be high level leaks for them to forego a partnership with Canada based on that.

blaze said:
Of course they don't, this argument is about the US wanting to take the lead in the Indo-Pacific strategy and Australia being a vital part of that - this along with Quad is part of the larger US strategy for the region. I imagine the Americans also didn't want to be in a position of following the French plan especially if they didn't agree with the way the EU wanted to manage the whole thing too (the French don't particularly agree with the stance of other EU countries either).

You can absolutely understand why France are upset about it given the visuals of it reducing their global influence and being pushed to the side but I don't think there would have ever been a consideration for them joining with the scope of the pact between AUKUS (tech sharing etc.), at most they'll be brought in as a partner to the alliance.

Doubt France will ever want to join after what just transpired. They might join a "NATO of the Pacific" when it happens though.

The Canadian and NZ governments both indicated they were told about it pretty much a day before the announcement, I imagine the truth is more that they don't need to be officially part of it since it's unlikely they'd be building the kind of technology the US/UK is willing to share with Australia, far better for appearance to avoid being part of it, they're completely entwined with each other in other security areas anyway so it's not like it's going to affect their relationships.

I could buy NZ not being in the loop, but I'd really surprised if Canada wasn't aware. You might be right about the fact that there's no real benefit for them though.

KillLaCam said:
The unipolar power of the US definitely bares some responsibility . Countries like Iran and NK don't just want nukes because theyre the bad guys or whatever

I mean, that's part of it. Dictators are power hungry assholes who would do anything to stay in power, and nukes are a great way of keeping any nation (not just the US) from threatening their hold of power.

Ramsay · Sep 18, 2021

KillLaCam said:
The unipolar power of the US definitely bares some responsibility . Countries like Iran and NK don't just want nukes because theyre the bad guys or whatever

I mean, yes? Dictators above all else wish to accumulate and remain in power, and nuclear weapons are seen as the ultimate deterrent from foreign or domestic enemies from removing them from power.

With regards to North Korea, the threat of nuclear weapons is also an excellent tool to blackmail other countries into giving it aid - and it's not unlikely that Iran would do the same if it got nuclear weapons either.

Mechaplum · Sep 18, 2021

NZ can absolutely allow passage of the nuke boats during wartime. Jacinda's comments are really a non-event.

Psittacus · Sep 18, 2021

igordennis said:
Literally the most higher up people involved in the project learnt about this from the press release. No one working on the project had any idea this was coming - 40+ billion dollar contracts don't really ever need to activate the Termination clauses like this - the engineers and my co-workers that have been working in this project for 3+ years were in shock that the government just up and decided to write-off the years of work (and billions of dollars) everyone had put in at this point, production was at full speed the day of the announcement, with plans far ahead in the future set etc.

The assumption in my part of the industry was that we were stuck with the current plan. But that was based on assessments of the government's appetite for changing course and their available alternatives that turned out to be incorrect.

Asator said:
Canada's absence is indeed weird, and so is NZ's for that matter. I'd have imagined that they would have wanted all members of the five eyes on this agreement.
Maybe the Canadian and NZ government refused to join? NZ has already said that they won't let Australia's nuclear submarines into their water after all.

New Zealand doesn't allow nuclear reactors or nuclear weapons in their territory (a lot of conventional US warships aren't welcome because they are nuclear capable and the navy isn't in the business of telling people ship's loadouts) and they have a very small military. I'm not sure they'd even want to get involved.

Mechaplum said:
NZ can absolutely allow passage of the nuke boats during wartime. Jacinda's comments are really a non-event.

Yeah she was just making clear that they're not going to make an exception to existing policy for us.

blaze said:
The Canadian and NZ governments both indicated they were told about it pretty much a day before the announcement

Most of the relevant ministers in the Australian government were told the day before as well. This thing was kept very small until the last minute.

mpak · Sep 18, 2021

JahIthBer said:
EU if you pretend it's a country has the biggest economy on the planet, they can afford their own military.

I don't believe that EU will ever have its own unified military.

Donthizz said:
Matter of time before India & Japan join five eyes.

Yeah, probably. It will be interesting to draw the world alliance and power projection maps in the future.

Deleted member 721 · Sep 18, 2021

Asator said:
Oooh boy.

No I'm not. It's not my fault if you're not familiar with the matter.

China has been increasing its military massively over the past decades, and they now have more ships than the US navy. They've also been building artificial islands as bases to operate ships and aircrafts (and claim that these islands are part of their national waters, which goes against international conventions btw), which is clearly an aggressive move. You don't build forward bases for defence.

Source

China makes ridiculous sea claims that clearly go against international laws and antagonize its neighbors:

From the same source as above

"Japan defence ministry seeks $50 billion budget"

Japan defence ministry seeks $50 billion budget - France 24

Japan defence ministry seeks $50 billion budget

www.france24.com

From the article:

India-China clash: 20 Indian troops killed in Ladakh fighting

India-China clash: 20 Indian troops killed in Ladakh fighting

It is the first deadly skirmish in decades between the two regional powers at their disputed border.

www.bbc.com

Source

"Japan's air force faces a 'relentless' burden, imposed by China"

Japan's air force faces a 'relentless' burden, imposed by China | CNN

Japanese fighter pilot Lt. Col. Takamichi Shirota says his country is under increasing pressure from the air. Analysts say it's a pressure faced by few other nations.

edition.cnn.com

"Surge in Chinese incursions leaves Japan scrambling on Senkakus"

Surge in Chinese incursions leaves Japan scrambling on Senkakus

Tokyo weighs how to legally respond, including direct shots at offending vessels

asia.nikkei.com

But sure, they have great relations and it's just the bad wEsTerN cOunTriEs having a case of yellow fever... Like Japan and India 🙄

artificial islands and articial settlements to claim waters its not something that started with china and its not ilegal, england did/does a lot of that as other countries. The increase of china military is quite logical for the sheer size of china geography, economy and history, and even then its not comparable with the US.
Even with all these news you got, it says nothing about war, no country believes or want that, it does not make any economical and political sense since it would disrupt the economy of all the countries involved and would put then in economical crisis, and 2 of the nations you mentioned have nukes that makes a war even less likely, and in the case of japan and AUS there's US bases and alliances and proximity that china is not dumb to start a war with them so US can declare war. You can make a more compeling case for argentina going to war with england again.

And its quite telling that you see china as an enemy.

YamchasRevenge · Sep 18, 2021

Dinoric said:
The US is a much worse country than China.

Are you American? If you are, you just just disproved your own point because you have the right to say what you just typed. In the "better" country, not so much.

BarcaTheGreat · Sep 18, 2021

Dinoric said:
The US is a much worse country than China.

Now that's a take. Lol... USA has a lot of issues but wow what a horrible take.

Deleted member 48201 · Sep 18, 2021

Eylos said:
artificial islands and articial settlements to claim waters its not something that started with china and its not ilegal, england did/does a lot of that as other countries. The increase of china military is quite logical for the sheer size of china geography, economy and history, and even then its not comparable with the US.
Even with all these news you got, it says nothing about war, no country believes or want that, it does not make any economical and political sense since it would disrupt the economy of all the countries involved and would put then in economical crisis, and 2 of the nations you mentioned have nukes that makes a war even less likely, and in the case of japan and AUS there's US bases and alliances and proximity that china is not dumb to start a war with them so US can declare war. You can make a more compeling case for argentina going to war with england again.

And its quite telling that you see china as an enemy.

What China is doing on those islands is illegal and has been ruled so by the the Permanent Court of Arbitration. China is violating international law.

Tribunal Issues Landmark Ruling in South China Sea Arbitration

The wait is over: a judgment has been issued in the Philippines v. China South China Sea arbitration. A five-judge tribunal constituted under the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague has released its much-anticipated Award concerning the Philippines’ challenge to a number of China’s...

www.lawfareblog.com

If the CCP really wants to be a responsible partner of the international community and have good relationships with neighboring SCS countries, like it claims, then it should accept the ruling and leave those islands.

The fact that the CCP has been unable to convince any of the other SCS countries that it's not a threat and convince them that they would be better off without US military bases in their countries shows that none of them trusts the CCP. Actually with their bullying they drive them right to the US's arms.

After first colonizing Tibet and now these islands and putting Uyghurs in concentration camps they have every right to not trust them.

Tsuyu · Sep 18, 2021

JahIthBer said:
We probably should stop giving in to China, the CCP is just getting more fascist, the Clinton admin hoping China would become more free & possibly democratic if we played ball with them keeps getting proven wrong yet the western world keeps doing it for legacy reasons because boomer neo-liberals don't want to change.

Conflicts is inevitable regardless what China do or don't. The main issue was always it is threatening America hegemony and it has 4x the population. America is never going to let that happen.

Chikor · Sep 18, 2021

Tsuyu said:
Conflicts is inevitable regardless what China do or don't. The main issue was always it is threatening America hegemony and it has 4x the population. America is never going to let that happen.

At some point both China and India going to pass the US in GDP and Americans needs to get over it.
Those countries are not going to stay poor forever and we seriously need to get off those right wing fantasies of cutting all countries into small enough pieces until the US is guaranteed forever to be the biggest dog.

And I don't think anything terrible is going to happen when those streams are crossed.

JahIthBer · Sep 18, 2021

Chikor said:
At some point both China and India going to pass the US in GDP and Americans needs to get over it.
Those countries are not going to stay poor forever and we seriously need to get off those right wing fantasies of cutting all countries into small enough pieces until the US is guaranteed forever to be the biggest dog.

And I don't think anything terrible is going to happen when those streams are crossed.

I really don't think anyone including right wingers cares about India's GDP, who is honestly worried about India besides Pakistan?
I can't see US imperialism going after India unless they challenge the petrodollar & start making plays for the Indian ocean.

siteseer · Sep 18, 2021

Asator said:
You don't build forward bases for defence.

what is this? we have many many bases abroad for 'defense'.

Psittacus · Sep 18, 2021

Tsuyu said:
Conflicts is inevitable regardless what China do or don't. The main issue was always it is threatening America hegemony and it has 4x the population. America is never going to let that happen.

China becoming the 21st century hegemon makes the old hegemon want to go to war with them yes. But they're attracting a much wider opposition than they otherwise would by leaning into the lawless imperial power schtick.

Warhawk4Ever · Sep 18, 2021

Chikor said:
At some point both China and India going to pass the US in GDP and Americans needs to get over it.
Those countries are not going to stay poor forever and we seriously need to get off those right wing fantasies of cutting all countries into small enough pieces until the US is guaranteed forever to be the biggest dog.

And I don't think anything terrible is going to happen when those streams are crossed.

Nobody is saying shit about India passing the US since India isnt a threat to not only the US but also an entire area of international shipping lanes and our allies very independence...

Ramsay · Sep 18, 2021

Chikor said:
At some point both China and India going to pass the US in GDP and Americans needs to get over it.
Those countries are not going to stay poor forever and we seriously need to get off those right wing fantasies of cutting all countries into small enough pieces until the US is guaranteed forever to be the biggest dog.

And I don't think anything terrible is going to happen when those streams are crossed.

India? Probably not.

The CCP? Well, if Tibet, Xinjiang, their Belt and Road neo-colonialism, their desires to invade Taiwan (and subjugate it to the same fate as Hong Kong), or their militarization of the South China Sea is any indication - and there's a reason why the response to the CCP's potential hegemony is more similar to that towards Imperial Japan than towards the Japan of the 1980s.

Analysis: China's wolf warrior overreach draws comparison to Imperial Japan

Making enemies on all sides goes against ancient diplomatic textbook, scholars warn

asia.nikkei.com

BringBackSonics · Sep 18, 2021

UnderNewOwnership said:
While US indifference towards India could have been explained via the need to keep Pakistan happy in order to allow passage into Afghanistan during the war, now that the whole shitshow is shuttered, continuing to stonewall India is an utterly baffling decision. They're the most credible counter-piece to China in the region. A loose collection of small ASEAN countries, some with territorial grievances towards each other, Japan, which nobody else really likes, and Australia which is too far away from the rest, does not constitute a great cordon sanitaire to the CCP's ambitions/designs in the area.

It feels to me like Biden's team pulled out some dusty Obama era papers, kicked off the

EDIT: It's also tellingly interesting that Canada is mentioned 0 times in this endeavour.

Other political parties and pundits have taken notice about Canada's lack of inclusion

Trudeau lambasted over exclusion from US-led military alliance as election nears

Canada already shares intelligence with Australia, the UK, the US and New Zealand but was not included in Aukus pact

www.theguardian.com

BringBackSonics · Sep 18, 2021

Chikor said:
At some point both China and India going to pass the US in GDP and Americans needs to get over it.
Those countries are not going to stay poor forever and we seriously need to get off those right wing fantasies of cutting all countries into small enough pieces until the US is guaranteed forever to be the biggest dog.

And I don't think anything terrible is going to happen when those streams are crossed.

Why you bringing India into the discussion? They are an ally and we are getting closer to them (mainly as a counter to China)

BringBackSonics · Sep 18, 2021

Funkallero said:
Looks like USA don't give 2 fucks about French, Biden is applying the same foreign diplomacy as Trump, aka America First.
The only difference is that you knew what to expect with Trump…

this is some horrible logic. The US is just shifting its focus to the Indo-Pacific. Biden is not pulling a trump, he's actually pushing forward what he feels are the bigger concerns.

Chikor · Sep 18, 2021

BringBackSonics said:
Why you bringing India into the discussion? They are an ally and we are getting closer to them (mainly as a counter to China)

Because both countries are much more populous than the US and eventually will leave the US behind in terms of GDP.
And I donno, maybe the people who believe in American hegemony and wEsTeRn cIvIlIzAtIoN VaLuEs are going to be okay to playing second fiddle to a non white country on the global stage, I am definitely rooting for that future and will do whatever that is in my limited power to make it happen.

I'm not sure that we are quite there as a country, but it could be that I'm pushing against an open door here.

Deleted member 48201 · Sep 18, 2021

BringBackSonics said:
Why you bringing India into the discussion? They are an ally and we are getting closer to them (mainly as a counter to China)

Yes India is already in the Quad together with the US, Australia and Japan.

I think the US is making several alliances based on mutual interests instead of one big one where it might be more difficult to get all members to agree on something.

Chikor said:
At some point both China and India going to pass the US in GDP and Americans needs to get over it.
Those countries are not going to stay poor forever and we seriously need to get off those right wing fantasies of cutting all countries into small enough pieces until the US is guaranteed forever to be the biggest dog.

And I don't think anything terrible is going to happen when those streams are crossed

Every empire and super power in history has used its power for their own gain at the cost of other countries. What makes you believe that if China becomes the dominant super power they'd act differently? They have already shown that they are fine with oppressing, killing and commiting genocide against their own citizens and the citizens of countries they colonized, like Tibet and they are threating to invade Taiwan.

NSESN · Sep 18, 2021

Brazil is the 7th not australia. Unless you are considering the time it will be ready not announcemente

Kodama4 · Sep 18, 2021

Whilst the US and UK shift their focus on to Asia-Pacific - It leaves the door wide open for Russia in Europe

I expect Putin will be gleefully lapping this up, Taiwan will fall to China and Russia will finish what it started in Ukraine

Meanwhile the West is fighting with themselves over lucrative military deals that benefit already rich and massive weapons companies

siteseer · Sep 18, 2021

Hanzo said:
Every empire and super power in history has used its power for their own gain at the cost of other countries. What makes you believe that if China becomes the dominant super power they'd act differently? They have already shown that they are fine with oppressing, killing and commiting genocide against their own citizens and the citizens of countries they colonized, like Tibet and they are threating to invade Taiwan.

is this a straw man argument or a loaded question? i don't know. disregarding that, what makes you believe china wants to become a 'super power'? this is assuming super power means global force projection via military supremacy with a neo-colonialist component. as far as i know, china has always been a mercantile civilization, not an imperialist/colonial one.

Deleted member 48201 · Sep 18, 2021

siteseer said:
is this a straw man argument or a loaded question? i don't know. disregarding that, what makes you believe china wants to become a 'super power'? this is assuming super power means military supremacy with a neo-colonialist component. as far as i know, china has always been a mercantile civilization, not an imperialist/colonial one.

Xi has stated so several times.

Invading Tibet and the islands in the SCS isn't imperialism/colonialism?

Dubbedinenglish · Sep 18, 2021

siteseer said:
is this a straw man argument or a loaded question? i don't know. disregarding that, what makes you believe china wants to become a 'super power'? this is assuming super power means global force projection via military supremacy with a neo-colonialist component. as far as i know, china has always been a mercantile civilization, not an imperialist/colonial one.

They are literally expanding their territorial claim via military installations in the SCS and regularly talk about annexing another sovereign nation.

siteseer · Sep 18, 2021

Hanzo said:
Invading Tibet and the islands in the SCS isn't imperialism/colonialism?

tibet is already conquered and intergrated, it is a none issue. might as well fight for hawaiian independence if its all the same to you. scs they are taking/making territory but its a far cry from loading up a few carrier groups and invading and bombing a half dozen already poor countries into more pitiful countries. i just don't buy the rhetoric that we have to fear chinese imperialism. compete in trade and innovation, yes, but someone is fearmongering in order to upsell some more expensive weapon systems better than the next guy, sorry france.

Deleted member 48201 · Sep 18, 2021

siteseer said:
tibet is already conquered and intergrated, it is a none issue. might as well fight for hawaiian independence if its all the same to you. scs they are taking/making territory but its a far cry from loading up a few carrier groups and invading and bombing a half dozen already poor countries into more pitiful countries. i just don't buy the rhetoric that we have to fear chinese imperialism. compete in trade and innovation, yes, but someone is fearmongering in order to upsell some more expensive weapon systems better than the next guy, sorry france.

What a ridiculous take. Colonization is fine cause it happened 70 years ago so it's a non issue. Really? The Tibetans are suffering under CCP oppression.

Bessy67 · Sep 18, 2021

I guess I'm a little confused why France is so upset about this. They have nuclear subs too, if you don't want Australia looking elsewhere offer them your best tech.

UnderNewOwnership · Sep 18, 2021

Bessy67 said:
I guess I'm a little confused why France is so upset about this. They have nuclear subs too, if you don't want Australia looking elsewhere offer them your best tech.

Except the Australians outright rejected nuclear subs during the original tender. The competitors were the Soryu class from Japan, the Type 216 from Germany, the A26 Oceanic from Sweden, and the Shortfin Barracuda from France.

siteseer · Sep 18, 2021

Hanzo said:
What a ridiculous take. Colonization is fine cause it happened 70 years ago so it's a non issue. Really? The Tibetans are suffering under CCP oppression.

if there is no statute of limitations on colonization then we're really in a can of worms. might as well wrap it all up. not saying people aren't being oppressed all over the world but your selective finger pointing speaks a lot.

maabus1999 · Sep 18, 2021

UnderNewOwnership said:
Except the Australians outright rejected nuclear subs during the original tender. The competitors were the Soryu class from Japan, the Type 216 from Germany, the A26 Oceanic from Sweden, and the Shortfin Barracuda from France.

Nuclear wasnt an option at the time not they rejected them.... If they had an option then they 100% would've taken it. Nuclear subs are a huge force multiplier.

Australia to get US Nuclear-powered submarines - New AUKUS Defence agreement

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