Yayyyyyy2 area's of interest noted by NHC. The further west AOI is looking to end up in the gulf by next weekend and the east looks to go along the Greater Antilles in the same time frame. GFS still playing catch up with these storms will be interesting what the Euro shows in the next few hours
weather.com
Shit, that one could hit Florida.NHC has designated the wave that came off Africa yesterday as invest 98L, Models are starting to catch up to it, shaping up to be a threat to watch in the next 4-8 days depending on where you live.
Here are some long range to give an idea of the potential track. Still have a while to go with this storm and things can change.
I'd be careful what you say with this one. Models have had a tough time grasping these two latest invest buy now some of them are pointing to a possible major with this storm. Still too early to tell as a lot of path factors in play as much noted.
I was going to ask if we'd had multiple hurricane hits at once before
Very cool. Just what I wanted.And we have TD 14, again will auto update
Also the track for 13 has a hurricane over the bahamas, will be interesting to see what the 12z Euro has, that will like narrow the cone if it comes in line with the other models
I'm guessing the gulf must have lots of sheer or dry air if the NHC isn't expecting more than a tropical storm
They are actually a little bullish, but the models are not showing it yet (though they've been terrible all year), plus it needs to form first before they can really make a good call as mentioned above. As an example, the major models are still not even showing this storm properly.
I'm not sure what they're looking at, honestly, unless it's changed in the last day or so. A couple days ago they were saying the gulf was ripe for development and they would have expected anything that went in there to get a lot stronger a lot faster. I guess we'll wait and see.
The one in front will be directly influencing the second one's path and will probably leave a weakness in the steering for it to follow depending on it's strength. It's definitely gonna be a dangerous situation if they both blow up.
yaleclimateconnections.org
ThanksWeather underground blog cat 6 that started around 2005, where I and many others went to learn about these storms, IBM bought WU a while ago and shut down the blog earlier this summer. Comment section was always a good place to get information and Jeff Master and Ben Henson blogs are always informative. Master and Henson moved to Yale's Climate Connection but they didn't have a comment section but are building it. People have just been using Cat 6's comment section til then. Does seem like the comment section is still active on the disqus site
This is the latest blog post.
Major hurricane could hit Florida Monday, some models suggest » Yale Climate Connections
And U.S. Gulf Coast residents should monitor a second tropical depression that could strengthen to a tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane.
It's good news for Houston they are in the bullseye for a Hurricane 5 days out, because forecast almost always shifts when its this far out.
Looks like Miami will be hit by a hurricane on Monday, and Houston will be hit by a DIFFERENT hurricane on Tuesday if the forecast holds*
