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MrJames

Member
Oct 25, 2017
759
12z UKMet shifts east

rroYsYN.gif
 

Jag

Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,669
Broward peeps, you shuttering? I have mostly impact glass, but a few still use a few panels. I'm not worried about shuttering everything for 50-60mph sustained.
 

EYEL1NER

Member
Oct 26, 2017
3,774

I feel like I'm missing something obvious here but how is it tied for third strongest? Shouldn't top three be the 190mph storm and two of the 185mph storms? I feel dumb because I keep reading this tweet and it's not sounding right to me.

EDIT: nvm, I get it now. Took a third or fourth look at it after posting and it made sense.
 

GodofWine

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
2,775
TWC just said the average 48 hour track prediction error is 70 miles...so stay vigilant. That's a big 70 miles in this storms case.
 

Bubukill

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,810
Panama
May I know the estimated on when all this will be over?

I do no think it's a good time to have an expensive item shipped to Miami, Florida. To my courier. But I'm obliged to order the item soon :/
 

Poltergust

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,819
Orlando, FL
Finally, some good news for Florida. I had a sense of dread all night from yesterday's tracks.

Poor Bahamas... I'm afraid to see the aftermath of that. It would look apocalyptic.
 

Common Knowledge

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,235
Hurricanes always make you feel like a horrible person when the good news on your end means another place is going to get absolutely fucked.
 

Vestal

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
2,297
Tampa FL
I won't be breathing any easier until the system stalls.. Where it stalls will say everything. This is an unprecedented hurricane that up until 5 days ago was supposed to not even be a strong Tropical storm.

Thoughts are with the folks in the Bahamas..... As far as Florida and mainland US

stay vigilant!
 

Maquiladora

Member
Nov 16, 2017
5,068
Recon finding winds indicating it's probably stronger than 180MPH now...

190MPH is the record for an Atlantic hurricane.
 

cubicle47b

Member
Aug 9, 2019
727
I live in Melbourne with my wife. The models look a lot better for us and our walls are thick concrete, but there's no way we're staying here when a shift could put us in the eye. Luckily, my cousin lives on the west side of Orlando so we have a place to escape to that's nearby.
 

Deleted member 3038

Oct 25, 2017
3,569
May I know the estimated on when all this will be over?

I do no think it's a good time to have an expensive item shipped to Miami, Florida. To my courier. But I'm obliged to order the item soon :/
Past Tuesday you should be fine to ship to Miami.
 

Lightus

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,135
Even if this stays East of FL and doesn't make landfall St Augustine will be getting cat 3/4 winds yeah? Trying to convince my mom to drive over to Gainesville and wait it out. She has storm shutters and her building is new so she should be fine but A1A is prone to flooding so I feel she'll be trapped inside for awhile until it receeds.
 

Vestal

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
2,297
Tampa FL
Even if this stays East of FL and doesn't make landfall St Augustine will be getting cat 3/4 winds yeah? Trying to convince my mom to drive over to Gainesville and wait it out. She has storm shutters and her building is new so she should be fine but A1A is prone to flooding so I feel she'll be trapped inside for awhile until it receeds.
How close to the coast is she? Honestly Lightus if this fucker doesn't slow down in the next 12hrs she should drive inland. At least I would. However that is a personal choice, and maybe she can wait till local officials issue evacuation orders.
 

Lightus

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,135
How close to the coast is she? Honestly Lightus if this fucker doesn't slow down in the next 12hrs she should drive inland. At least I would. However that is a personal choice, and maybe she can wait till local officials issue evacuation orders.

She lives on the intercostal so less than a mile from the beach. She's pretty stubborn so not sure if she'll listen to my advice. Can't wait for this thing to pass already so I can stop worrying haha
 

Vestal

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
2,297
Tampa FL
763
WTNT65 KNHC 011644
TCUAT5

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1245 pm EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON ELBOW CAY IN THE
ABACOS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite data indicate that Dorian has made landfall at 1240 pm
EDT (1640 UTC) in Elbow Cay, Abacos. The winds have increased
to 185 mph (295 km/h) with the minimum central pressure falling to
911 mb (26.90 inches).

This is a life-threatening situation. Residents there should take
immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if it passes over
your location.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 1245 PM EDT...1645 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Avila/Blake

BOLDED!!

Movement back up to 8mph.
 

pulsemyne

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,634
This is an unprecedented storm. HOLY SHIT!

It shows how much we still need to understand about meteorology. This was not even supposed to be a strong TS 5 days ago. Today we have arguably the strongest Hurricane on record in the North Atlantic.
Not quite as Allen topped out at 190mph. Still it's staggeringly strong and Allens record could be beaten.
 

Vestal

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
2,297
Tampa FL
Wouldnt moving faster be bad for Florida? Why would that coincide with UKMet going east?
Moving faster would be bad for FL yes. Reading chatter from some Mets they say its due to variables expecting the storm to be at a different position and forward speed than what is happening, along with no model expecting this storm to be what it is right now. No model had a CAT5 with close to 900mb pressure and 185 sustained winds at this point in time on the track.

I am hoping the next model runs take the new forward speed and current location into consideration.