I wish replays were a thing right now, as I just had a game that really drives my point home about the arrow RNG not really mattering that much and more about how you play around it.
I had taken a tower in another lane already, and in lane 1 the tower was low. I had two heroes in the lane, but they were blocked. Both me and my opponent had a lot of creeps there. On the last turn, the tower was so low, and I got bad RNG on the arrows: only one creep unblocked and an empty space in the middle. So this part of the board looked something like this.
C = creep
D = Drow ranger
0 = empty
C 0 0 C C C
------------------
C C 0 C C D
I played Rebel Decoy in the open spot. It got a right arrow, and even if it did get a straight arrow, it wouldn't have been enough to win. I switched it for Drow, Drow kept the same combat target. However the creep to the left of they was hitting the tower. I also had Juke, so I switched Drow and the unblocked creep. Drow is hitting tower now, my opponent has nothing to stop it, the game ends at combat phase, I win. The arrows being unlucky basically meant nothing.
The only RNG in the game that is bullshit right now is Cheating Death in my opinion, and the main reason for that is that the options for condemning improvements are so limited, especially if you aren't running red. It's not like other RNG where it's "50% chance a helpful thing will happen", it's "50% chance your enemy's damage, including piercing damage, means absolutely nothing (or not enough)".
I can't remember off the top of my head: are condemns still affected by Cheating Death?
