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ARM cuts ties with Huawei, threatening future chip designs
- Thread starter Deleted member 15428
- Start date
How did Huawei go from a nobody to the top 3 phone companies in like 5 years anyway?
This is good, whatever is happening there is terrible. I hope this trade war sorts China out.
They released great products which got hyped. They also catered to the cheaper markets as well as premium market. They can financially compete with the big two as they don't just rely on mobile revenue as they do all sorts.
Also Apple are moving some of their manufacturing to India. They'd just decide to move their whole base there. It would be a short term disruption at best.
If I were Huawei, I would open source all of R&D, patent, IP, know how, everything and then declare bankruptcy. Suddenly, the companies who are cheerleading this assassination of a market leader will have dozens of competitors.
I doubt that was possible without Chinese government backed sponsoring and subsidies. No brand goes from 0 to the top worldwide without something going on. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...y-chinese-state-security-report-idUSKCN1RW03D
Let's not forget they've done the same in the solar panel business.
This isn't new. This has been status quo for years.
China has been doing that for years, so there's not really a retaliation concern. "We're going to keep restricting American companies" isn't really a threat.
Ah yes. Steal shit and sell it cheap. What an innovation you have there! If only everyone took your advice and no one bothered with innovation!
How is this different than the status quo? Stopping copying and getting more companies to focus on innovation will benefit the world.
Yes, the American government wants the company that told it to go fuck itself to rule the world. America doesn't havee a command economy. The government doesn't get to pick winners and losers like that. Apple lives or dies based on its products.
Android phones are better anyway. Samsung Galaxy > Apple iPhone
+1
The Canadians would be very polite about it tho.
American liberal criticize their government plenty. Many even fight it.
But whataboutism doesn't mean other wrongs get to be handwaved away. Criticizing two different things is not a logical inconsistency.
Gonna need receipts on that. Lots of Chinese citizens are not happy with their gov.
No, China will just try to destroy their business, like it did with an Australian newspaper.
https://amp.smh.com.au/politics/fed...dia-over-anti-china-ties-20190404-p51as2.html
Chinas imports are very small compared to their exports the retaliatory measures would have some effect but they are in a situation were they are really dependent on exports and being able to do business outside of China.
Chinas economy is also in this weird place were many of the "millionaires" in China are living on borrowed money and some economists have described Chinas economy as one big ponzy scheme.
Here is the quote I found
"As long as their economy keeps growing everything is fine but when the growth stops or slips just a little it could be disaster.
China also has no concept of a financial crisis their economy has done nothing but grow for such a long time but for the first time in quite a while the government in China is worried because it's slowly starting to balance itself out which would be fine in the west and other economies.
In this case you justify production with demand based purely on more production. As long as you keep pushing production up everything looks fine. At its peak in 2014 China turned out 30 times more cement than the United States, and the latest production figures are only a smidgen less than 2014's.
Command systems may be good at deciding where to direct economic effort in wartime but they are hopeless in peacetime at deciding when to stop and do something else.
They just keep going down the same old track and then what you get is economic cancer, uncontrollable growth.
You don't see it right away. Any Ponzi scheme looks just fine as long as more people can be found to put their money in. But the end is inevitable and the longer it is delayed the more resounding the collapse.
It has so long been delayed in the mainland that, when the end finally comes, I believe more than half of the loans and advances of the financial system will prove irrecoverable, which would be very resounding indeed."
Basicly he aint wrong what he wrote in 2017 has started to happen and will accelerate with the trade war.
https://www.scmp.com/news/article/2108442/my-prediction-coming-collapse-chinas-ponzi-scheme-economy
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Nah, actually China is more prone to economic problems as it's not a democracy and it's legitimacy relies on the well-being of the economy. Add in the fact that it's a export based economy, that relies on selling products made in their factories, scaring people away from making stuff in China hurts China just as much as it could hurt the American consumer.
Keep going with the trade war, it's gone on for far too long to force China to end the IP stealing and forced technology transfers.
To all celebrating, as a Singaporean, I am less concern of what happened to Huawei and more concerned with the world's reliance on US tech.
If I am my country's administration, I will start to develop more homegrown tech than continue to rely on any foreign dependency as much as possible.
Obviously the US is not going to use this nuclear option to most countries (least not Singapore) but it has shown the world that it hypothetically can do it.
I am sure most EU countries are looking at this developing story with wary. There's a reason why EU kept imposed a monopoly fine on US tech companies.
Whatever coming out of this regarding Huawei & China, the US is not gonna ends up the 'winner' in the long term.
My 2 cents.
If I am my country's administration, I will start to develop more homegrown tech than continue to rely on any foreign dependency as much as possible.
Obviously the US is not going to use this nuclear option to most countries (least not Singapore) but it has shown the world that it hypothetically can do it.
I am sure most EU countries are looking at this developing story with wary. There's a reason why EU kept imposed a monopoly fine on US tech companies.
Whatever coming out of this regarding Huawei & China, the US is not gonna ends up the 'winner' in the long term.
My 2 cents.
While its unlikely that an individual small business, like a mom and pop shop would be vunerable to this, small and medium sized business could be wiped out easy.
Basically me at this point. I question the motives behind the move against Huawei but at the same time I don't really care about them.
I just bought their P30 Pro like 2 weeks ago but it's my first HW phone and will probably get a Pixel in the future when I need to change one.
We (Singapore) always have to play all sides with super powers and allies. We also don't have the capability to create most of our own tech.
User Banned (1 month): Xenophobia; previous severe infraction for rationalizing prejudice
I mean no longer hiring people from China.
I dont care about innovation in phones, I dont buy a phone to reward a great idea, I buy the one that I like more, Huawei phones have BETTER cameras (so I dont think they did that by stealing) AND are way way cheaper.
Just like in the game industry, people play Forntite because its cheaper AND more polished than the other battle royale games, they dont care what game was first. And they wont be worried about the earnings of mega-corporations over consumers.
This is the same line of thinking that defends IP rights on remedies/vaccines to defend investors and tried to force it on the whole world with the TPP.
Great post, saves me a lot of typing.
Problem is that externalities are so big with tech products, and barriers to entry are so high. It is a problem in a world where bad actors are becoming more bold, yeah.
That's not how economics work, Trump is attacking China's supply chain, their imports. The US has more imports coming from China than China does from the US, so China can disrupt more of the supply chain.
China also holds lots and lots of American debt, the US keeps running massive deficits that no other country could afford to, and much of this is owned by China. (Both private and public debt) In a normal civilized world, China has no incentive to use that leverage, but with Trump doing Trump things, there's a lot to leverage to be had there.
The US cannot be trusted, nor can American monopolies. We have Google and Facebook with a monopoly of information, breaking data protection laws left and right and attacking democracy, and we rely on them for so many information sectors. The regulators are definitely going to be more and more proactive with how the US government is leveraging this for their own interests.
Exynos. Partially developed in the US.
They apologized and got forgiven with a fine and consent agreement.
Yes, they filed the first complaint against Huawei in 2017 because they knew this would happen in 2019!
Why couldn't anyone else see that?
Anything to own the libs...
Why bother fighting in court when the gov will randomly arrest people for you?
This isn't limited to just the US. Europe does it as well. You can't trade internationally without dealing with the laws of other countries.
I can only hope the next us president is more 'level- headed'.
Trump is too much a lunatic to make such decisions without considering the impact he has caused in creating a sense of 'reservation' on reliance on US tech. Whether other countries can develop their homegrown tech is another question by itself but nobody can deny, the current situation has planted some seeds of reservation even within US's closest allies.
you definitely got the first sentence of your post right.
If China impacted exports, or called on debt, China's economy would implode.
Well, that's why the Chinese government hasn't done it so far, they aren't crazy.
But when the president of the US is crazy, and is intent on going kamikaze at the Chinese economy, at the cost of the American economy, the reasons to retaliate or threaten to retaliate certainly increase. The US has every bit as much to lose as China, it's losing already, and the consequences will be coming slowly as firms shift strategies to protect themselves from the risk of doing business with the US.
For Americans here, you really have to understand that the US is coming off as a bully in the view of everyone abroad, and the fast eroding trust will have economic and political consequences.
They won't be able to aresst the Google and Arm employees responsible for the recent troubles for Huawei.
Huawei will try and do good, they don't want to lose there mobile phone business in some of the biggest markets.
China can't retaliate rashly because every American business in China also has a Chinese partner. I think China will definitely play the victim role on the world stage, become more self reliant and maybe more 'collaboration' with EU in the future. Their internal economy is way overdue for correction and they will just have to take their loses for now. I think that's why Xi has been telling the citizens to buckle up for a long march. If they can truly catch up in technology and become more self reliant in a decade, they will be much more difficult to deal with. Meanwhile, Russia is probably laughing their asses off seeing the trust between the US and the rest of the world erode.
I mean, those are all shell companies, they do the financial part, things like that. Every multinational company has shell subsidiaries in every country. They are a tiny part of the sector, and if China really wanted to go crazy like Trump is, that would not be an obstacle.
I don't think China will go that route, as you say, it's a much better play to rely on the international institutions, formal and informal, to arbitrate in all this, and let the US hurt its own image. I think this will be like ZTE in the end, the ban will be lifted sooner than later after some apologizing, a fine, whatever, only the reputation of the US is more tarnished than before. In the coming years there's going to be a huge strategic shift as you say, because it's clear you cannot trust or rely on the US for key sectors of the economy.
No it's because China trapped themselves by requiring technology transfers and partnerships which means attacks on Us interests locally means hurting their own companies.
Also you give the big cheeto too much credit. This ban has the fingerprints of.his trade.rep Lighthizer who is known for his hawkish position against China on trade
Huawei is taking a very measured response. They are saying they are going to file an official complaint.
People around them also say that they will release a new operating system before spring next year and that they are working on it since 2012.
China itself is saying that America must first roll back the sanctions and then they can talk further on trade.
It seems like this is the mechanism that Trump is always doing. Like with tariffs with other countries. First Trump puts on tariffs, bans, etc.. and then the other side complies and they gave in with Trump using the tariffs he started as currency. In that way, Trump never gives up anything and the other side must give in on all demands. It is weird that this tactic works so well.
People around them also say that they will release a new operating system before spring next year and that they are working on it since 2012.
China itself is saying that America must first roll back the sanctions and then they can talk further on trade.
It seems like this is the mechanism that Trump is always doing. Like with tariffs with other countries. First Trump puts on tariffs, bans, etc.. and then the other side complies and they gave in with Trump using the tariffs he started as currency. In that way, Trump never gives up anything and the other side must give in on all demands. It is weird that this tactic works so well.
Like Dekuman said, it's not just shell companies. CCP themselves will lose money as well. Chinese economy was already on the verge of implosion due to years of inflated growth. The chain reaction from massively ban US companies would be too much to bear right now.
Here are some articles in English worth reading wrt why I think China will do what I think it will do.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/pol...lls-self-reliance-china-grapples-long-term-us
And we all know that Trump is still having frequent conversation with Steve Bannon...
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/dip...says-killing-huawei-more-important-trade-deal
The Chinese will come back to the table if he drops tariffs, pretend to agree to more shit and then go back to doing the same thing. The tariffs alone weren't affecting China enough to get them to agree to comprehensive reform.
He's still tariffing the EU and it's not getting him shit.
This Huawei attack though? Much better.
More like end of US empire, period. Germany are correct, nobody can any longer rely on the United States for business as usual. America First is basically an adversarial position towards everyone else. It's not actually Trump's worst quality, he's delivering on promises and trying to squeeze more out of China so that the balance in the relationship is more in the favour of the US, but he's playing hardball and you have to wonder what the consequences will be if China and other countries decide they just can't do business on fair terms with the US and instead start looking to found their Western branches and business relationships in Europe. European and African nations should really look at exploiting this position and inviting China in. I don't for a minute buy all the sinophobic propaganda, personally.
If there is *no* retaliation, I don't see why Trump wouldn't just push things even further. He's testing boundaries here and so far getting no push back.
I don't see how that is relevant. This ban hurts American companies as well! Trump is hurting American companies by depriving them of one of their biggest business partners. Of course a Chinese ban would hurt Chinese companies, that goes without saying!
In the long run, business will go away from American companies. So it makes sense to be the calm actor, even if in the short run you have to make sacrifices.
Pure fantasy. Huawei is not Toyota it's a low hanging fruit because more.countries than just the US have concerns with it and more.broadly China's thieving of tech to help companies like Huawei.
China was polling Chinese companies on vulnerable Canadian companies as they ratcheted up their bullying of Canada in recent months. They already cut off CANOLA Imports to hurt our farmers . So the way I see it, they are getting a taste of their own medicine
Huawei is taking a measured response because they know its China the one that will make the big blow blocking the Rare Earths exports to US.
We don't know what will happen in the long term but in the short term Huawei is fucked unless China deals and I won't be crying for them
Well, originally I was not talking about a full ban on American economies, rather a symbolic one like the Huawei ban is, like, say, banning Apple. I think it's obvious that with a full ban of each other's economy, there would be a global recession like we haven't seen before, and both economies would have a double digit recession.
The truth is, the American economy depends on China's economy as much as China's economy depends on the American economy. Those deals weren't done with a gun on their heads, they were done because China is leading in many essential sectors, and as of today many American firms absolutely rely on Chinese firms that have infrastructure and know-how nobody else does.
Huawei is taking a measured response because they're scared shitless, don't kid yourself.
obviouslly that too.
Besides, what else can they do apart of expecting china backs them up. They are this close of getting out of busisness.
Yeah, I don't like what China is doing either. Canada ended up stuck in the middle because of the Huawei-US mess. That sucks. There are plenty of other issues in China that are wrong as well and nobody else in the world likes it. They are no angels.
BUT, the US uses "national security" as an excuse to economically attack others, and I don't like that either. Americans get all riled up and get their hate on for the wrong reasons. China is not gonna have a political war and is not a military threat to the United States no matter how much Americans want to believe it. But they are an economic power and American business interests do not like that. With the US, it's always about the money. So the Trump government has a trade war and does their bullying, but I really don't think they fully understand what they're getting into. If they want a trade war, they're gonna get it. If the US keeps trying to economically crush other countries, they're not going to like the outcome of their trade wars.
Based off the last trade deal attempts, I think Trump has no intention of signing an agreement until Huawei is officially done for. His admin have not put any ounce of effort to come up with a valid, mutual solution. Every attempt ends early. And each day Huawei's future is even more bleak. I dont really believe in conspiracy theories, but it would not surprise me if part of this economic war's objectives is to let Huawei collapse or push them back on their time table considerably
I don't see that many companies/governments coming out in China's defense. Is it possible a lot of people don't like what China has done to the telecom industry and want them to face some economic pushback?
Kind of amazing watching the US flex its muscles like this, quite terrifying but quite amazing.
Seems like they're just playing fair now.
The main reason I don't think China will ban Apple is because there's no reason for them to escalate the situation. Manufacturing has already began moving out of China before trade wars due to rising labor costs, it give them a time buffer to deal with internally inflated economy. They would prefer to have as much buffer time as possible. They won't give in to the US due to Huawei either because that won't fix anything in terms of the trade war. The US wants accountability in writing for stopping technology transfer practices while China doesn't want it because they would look weak to the citizens and would look bad to the world stage if they try to wiggle their way out of it after it's been written down.
Also Huawei's boss already came out on record telling Chinese people don't hate Apple because of what's happening to them hate the politicians in Washingotn DC.