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Arizona Will Stay Blue (Update: All Networks Call It)
- Thread starter H.Cornerstone
- Start date
Even if the lead never narrowed, they'd still complain. Or just find some other windmill to tilt at.
True.
How did they save our democracy?
They had their decision desk guy on multiple times and he pretty much implied they did not account for the two different batches of mail in vote. They assumed the instant count announced in the first wave was indicative of the rest when it clearly wasn't. 1/3rd of AZ has no registered affiliation and republicans vote by mail here at a higher rate than elsewhere.
If Biden squeaks it out, Fox will have been lucky, not smart.
Calling AZ threw Trump and his narrative for a loop. Caused a confrontation with Murdoch, who is now openly opposing Trump.
to be fair, fox was the only channel to call it that early. no one else has marked it down yet. let them fight.
If the rumors are true Trump's plan on election night was to claim victory early in the night when he had the electoral lead over Biden but Fox calling AZ early for Biden prevented that from happening. There was an article written today saying that Trump's team was on the phone election night with every facet of Fox up to Murdoch himself demanding that the call be retracted but they refused and this has sparked off a behind the scenes war between Trump and Murdoch. I'm sure we'll know the entire truth at some point considering the parties involved.
that might be too generous, but clearly the plan was to come out ahead in the ec on called states on election night, look to be ahead in the midwest, and then declare victory pre-emptively as it appeared that the momentum was in trump's favor. they were probably expecting georgia and nc to get called pretty quickly, and that az would at least be a no-call. instead, the az call and the no-call of nc and ga kept biden at an ec vote advantage, and because fox called az first, biden had the largest lead on that network.
it blunted any momentum trump might have been able to claim as it then looked like biden was more favored to win, and just needed to nab a couple states while trump would once again need to run the table.
i get what you mean. you'd think after the polls looking super off that people might lay off the idea that things might be closer than expected.
Won't be called until all the traditional vote is in and probably the first batch of provisionals is counted.
there's 61.5k votes to count and a long way to go. recount range is not likely but it still could happen.
Do we know if the rest of the votes are favored towards Biden?
As many said, he was gonna call it on the night and say the Biden votes were rigged and so, he gets his case and goes SCOTUS.
Fox nuked that.
apparently the majority of the remaining votes come from gop districts, but so far trump has been running behind in those.
6.2k votes left in deep-red counties. 2k left in very blue counties. 2k left in generally-red yuma county. 30k left in swing county maricopa. 18.7k in the supposedly blue county of pima (although early ballots have been breaking for trump).
today there was a maricopa drop of 8.7k votes. 2.5k went to no neither trump nor biden, and trump won 140 of the remaining votes. these ballots broke 60-40 for the congressman and 51-49 for trump. that's not where he needs to be.
if you shift every county to trump by 21 points, and pima to trump by 27 points, trump still doesn't have enough to get to recount range. these numbers are very favorable to trump, and he'd have to outperform them just to get to a recount (0.10%). every time he underperforms in the "percentage" column (this is a win percentage - so 75% trump and 25 biden is a 50-point win), it drives up the need to win the rest even higher.
Oh
I hope this sticks. So what happens if Arizona goes back to Trump? I know Biden will still have won but what could this possibly set up from the Trump camp and supporters?
apparently the majority of the remaining votes come from gop districts, but so far trump has been running behind in those.
6.2k votes left in deep-red counties. 2k left in very blue counties. 2k left in generally-red yuma county. 30k left in swing county maricopa. 18.7k in the supposedly blue county of pima (although early ballots have been breaking for trump).
today there was a maricopa drop of 8.7k votes. 2.5k went to no neither trump nor biden, and trump won 140 of the remaining votes. these ballots broke 60-40 for the congressman and 51-49 for trump. that's not where he needs to be.
if you shift every county to trump by 21 points, and pima to trump by 27 points, trump still doesn't have enough to get to recount range. these numbers are very favorable to trump, and he'd have to outperform them just to get to a recount (0.10%). every time he underperforms in the "percentage" column (this is a win percentage - so 75% trump and 25 biden is a 50-point win), it drives up the need to win the rest even higher.
I hope this sticks. So what happens if Arizona goes back to Trump? I know Biden will still have won but what could this possibly set up from the Trump camp and supporters?
mostly it would fuel their ire at fox news, since they're the only main news channel that has called arizona. but i'm sure they'll use that to extend it to the rest of the media for calling pennsylvania and nevada too while votes are still being counted.
Ballot Progress - Arizona.Vote
www.arizona.vote
they need to cure (verify the signatures of) early ballots. then they need to verify provisional ballots. last tuesday night they had 600k of these. a couple nights ago they had 140k of these. they got through about 25k-30k today.
there was an article where they expected to finish this friday. we should know a winner once we get to a point where the remaining vote threshold becomes impossible for it to go into a recount territory. so if biden's up 8k and there's 5.4k votes left, then that should do it because even if trump wins all of them, biden wins by 0.11% and that's that.
There is a good chance 2024 a Republican will be elected. If Biden decides on one term, I don't see Kamala being able to not only won a primary, but win an election.
it'll happen. and it might not even happen in the electoral college. the only thing separating biden from a 306-232 win and a 269-269 split was 20k votes in wisconsin, 13k votes in georgia, and probably 12k votes in arizona - places where libertarian jo jorgensen had 150,000 votes combined.
269-269 means it goes to the house, and the state legislatures come back with one vote each. the majority of the state legislatures are gop. they vote for the president.
then the vote goes to the senate for the vice president. out of 100 senators, they need a majority.
of course, things will be different in 2024 because the census should rearrange the state counts a bit.
Exactly what people were saying after 2008 and 2012 lol. And on the other hand, until the 2018 midterms, plenty of people were saying it was going to be impossible for the Democrats to ever take back the House. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Nothing. He can't get 270 votes with AZ, NC, NV and GA combined.
He needed PA. He lost PA.
yeah, tomorrow's the deadline. not sure if provisional ballots are the same thing. i think the reason why provisional ballots are just sitting at estimated totals is because they need to work through curing the early ballots first due to the tuesday deadline.
Ballot Progress - Arizona.Vote
www.arizona.vote
there's about 4.3k left that still need curing. maricopa has the majority of them.
I literally heard that before Trump was elected, and not by some joe shmoe, but from people I actually respect(Sam Seder) so I doubt this very much.
I know right? Trump barely lost this one. We honestly got lucky this time. Extreme right wing politics is still on the rise. Trump losing hopefully is the beginning of the end, but I honestly don't see it. Social Media will continue to kill democracy.
It can be if the court gets packed and a bunch of voter suppression tactics get shutdown by said court
And apologies for being kinda off-topic, but on the topic of future elections, if y'all are tired of hearing of Florida (and, to a lesser extent, Texas), just wait until it gets 2 more electoral college votes after the 2020 census! (Texas will likely get 3 more.) https://www.270towin.com/news/2019/...-based-on-new-census-population-data_925.html
On topic, Arizona will likely get 1 more.
On topic, Arizona will likely get 1 more.
Not sure what this would have done except made him look like an idiot a few days later...Trump did call his victory, multiple times, and it amounted to nothing. Him picking up AZ wouldn't have put him over 270 so it would have also amounted to nothing. You guys here worry waaay too much. It wouldn't have made any difference
I really hope the Orange clown doesn't run again. Atleast maybe he'll go to prison. But I fear a Republican will win again ugggh. The last 6 presidents have been 4 Republicans and 2 Democrats. It seems like Dems tend to win when the previous Republican president fucks up. I could be wrong.
There will always be a Republican president because half this damn country is stupid. You saw it in 2016 with people saying oh my vote doesn't matter so Im not voting or voting 3rd party then we got stuck with a literal fascist that refuses to accept he lost and undermines our democracy. He might not succeed but he'll damage the people's faith in the process and someone will come along who is more competent. Plus you see this stupid split ticketing so one party doesn't have too much power. Then wonder why nothing is improved for Americans and why Congress is gridlocked.
Trump lost decisively. It only feels like he didn't because these counts are taking so fucking long. Biden won back WI, MI and PA by bigger margins than Trump did four years ago. We flipped Arizona and Georgia, two red states that haven't gone to Dems in decades.
If there wasn't any fuckery involved and early ballots were done and counted election night, we'd have been sitting at 306 EVs for Biden days ago and it'd be done.
The point wasn't to be at 270 outright it was to be over Biden for the 4 days. Arizona, North carolina, and Georgia would have put them at 256 trump 228 Biden as they fought over early voting "fraud" wherever needed.
The optics would have been completely different.
Trump is still well on track to losing GA and NC still hasn't been called so that's a weird hypothetical that wouldn't have happened regardless of whether AZ was called or not. Even without AZ Biden would be at 279
There will "not be another republican president" until Texas becomes a lean blue state like VA or CO. It's a lean red state at the moment.
If you look at the margins in individual states, though, it's a lot closer. The 2012 tipping point state was Colorado which went to Obama by over 5%. IIRC the tipping point state this year is likely to be Wisconsin, by about 0.65%. Meanwhile, I agree that in electoral vote terms it's certainly a decisive victory. Biden is on pace to win almost 57% of the electoral votes. But, in an IMO ironic twist given how much we tend to hate in the electoral college (and I am definitely on the side of abolishing it, for the record), he's "only" going to get around 51% of the popular vote. So he's over performing in the electoral college in comparison to the popular vote, somewhat ironically.
My point being, I agree Biden decisively won, but while Biden may have won back some states by larger margins than Trump won them, the margins are still very small and Democrats need to stay focused and not let up.
