"the President would have to get about 65% of them to win Arizona."
Which part of this are you having trouble with?
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Arizona Will Stay Blue (Update: All Networks Call It)
- Thread starter H.Cornerstone
- Start date
Which part of this are you having trouble with?
Not to mention Trump's lackeys slowing down the count. For example the poll observer in Georgia insisting the write in for Pence as president should count as a vote for Trump.
Scraper says he needs 68.3% but really that's academic because all that matters is avoiding a recount.
Ballot Progress - Arizona.Vote
www.arizona.vote
50k was from this morning anyway. there's 40k left now. 12,858 lead for biden.
trump needs to win these counties by in really big ways. he'd have to average more than 28 points to the right of the county average in order to get into recount territory.
Excuse my language but what in the fuck are they doing that it's taking so long? Do they not realize they're a swing state and that their results kinda matter?
are they really taking that much longer or is it that everybody is paying attention now? i know california still isn't close to counting all votes either.
AZ being a swing state is a new thing. If any state is lagging, it's NC.
From what I heard on the radio today this is actually faster than normal! It's just the state is close and there's more voters than ever so its harder to call
Media better fucking call it after 7 then. This rides been going too long. National election is over for a week and Arizona still doesn't have its shit together.
really, they're probably just making sure it doesn't get into recount territory. we'll know if there's 5k votes left and biden leads by 10k or something. georgia has a no-call too despite being basically done because there will be a recount. the secretary of state doesn't seem to think it'll change the outcome though.
Maybe Fri. as a group with GA (where the initial count should also be done) and NC (where outstanding mail ballots should be counted)?
So I did the math, he needs 62.615% to get a single vote above Biden. Or 62.616% to get 2 votes.
Hopefully it will be favorable enough to Biden/not favorable enough to Trump to cause networks to call it.
ANN Election Data
Battleground state changes, updated every five minutes using NYT data.
alex.github.io
There's probably more votes left than what it's showing but looks like Trump will need the remaining votes to go high 60s/low 70s to win.
not off the remaining votes:
Ballot Progress - Arizona.Vote
www.arizona.vote
40,479 votes left. biden's ahead 12,828. to get to a tie, trump needs to perform, on average, 37.5 points better than his county average. that means he'd have to win cochise by almost 56 points, or 78% when he's been winning less than 60% of the vote there.
Call it.not off the remaining votes:
Ballot Progress - Arizona.Vote
40,479 votes left. biden's ahead 12,828. to get to a tie, trump needs to perform, on average, 37.5 points better than his county average. that means he'd have to win cochise by almost 56 points, or 78% when he's been winning less than 60% of the vote there.
So now he need
if my math is right, he now needs 65.558216% for 1 more vote than Biden. Or 65.558216% for 2 more votes exact.not off the remaining votes:
Ballot Progress - Arizona.Vote
40,479 votes left. biden's ahead 12,828. to get to a tie, trump needs to perform, on average, 37.5 points better than his county average. that means he'd have to win cochise by almost 56 points, or 78% when he's been winning less than 60% of the vote there.
you're probably wrong as some of the ballots are provisional and won't count for one reason or the other. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
maricopa's dropping 9k tonight (unless i'm misreading archer here and they hope to drop 13k and not get to 13k remaining: https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1326664297930321921)
pretty sure other channels don't want it to get to a recount before they officially call it. tomorrow is the last day to get in early/cured ballots for remaining counties. then the rest would just be provisional ballots. maricopa's planning on wrapping up tomorrow, though. hopefully everyone else is too? we finally got yavapai in 100%. yuma, cochise, and apache have been sitting on 7k for a couple days. pima's finally getting through their provisional stuff at about 4k a day. if all that's left tomorrow is 6k in pima and biden's up 10k, they should call it. no feasible way to get to a recount even if you give 100% of 6k in pima to trump.
the fastest way to calculate break-even is to divide the remaining votes left by the lead. in this case it's 12,828 / 40,479. it's 31.69 points.
if you want to get the percentage breakdown, divide that number (in this case 31.69) and add half to 50 and subtract half from 50. trump would need 65.845% of the remaining vote against biden's 34.155%.
For anyone that wants to read the case:
Probably withdrew because the AG came out and told them to fuck off, essentially.
My guess is Trump will get 59% of the vote in remaining count, falling behind the 65% he needs. I just pulled this outta my ass.
65% is what he needs across all remaining ballots to tie. if we're talking maricopa, he needs 67.5% of the next batch of ballots to be on track to that number.
before people credit John & Cindy McCain
Now that's what I call definitive data. The correlation is kind of awe-inspiring in and of itself
Ya he might be a republican buy he hasn't been half bad for our state.
OP
OP
