Are we hitting diminishing returns with graphics?

[learning]

See thread title.

I don't know about you guys, but I haven't been "wowed" by trailers for a new gen since maybe the PS3/360 days. I think Monster Hunter World hit me that "damn this is amazing" a few times but that was partially because of the game experience and drama of the fight.

Yesterday's presentation, for instance, didn't wow me at all. I guess the first game looked cool, but then I was thinking "how much of this is art direction?".

I think we're hitting diminishing returns.

 

[ILikeFeet]

we've yet to go fully into ray tracing so no. of course some cross-gen games with bolted on RT isn't gonna be representative of what the consoles can do

 

[Trago]

Nope.

Once we see next gen only games, particularly from Sony, this won't wont be a question.

 

[Mirage]

There's no real point to judge yet. What was shown yesterday wasn't even really big budget stuff and it's mostly cross gen. You need to wait for more next gen exclusives / first party stuff to really get a feel. And that all takes time.

 

[TaySan]

If AA games looked that good from the presentation i can only imagine what actual next gen AAAA games look like.

 

[PlzUninstall]

It wasn't a particularly impressive showing in general so I wouldn't use that as your benchmark. You need to wait for the big hitters to arrive before we start calling this into question again. Although speaking of existing trailers I was genuinely taken aback by the Cyberpunk gameplay trailer.

 

[Crossing Eden]

Games have no way of implementing full on RT so absolutely not.

 

[Ferrs]

I don't think we can get this conclusion by a couple of cross-gen AA trailers.

 

[playXray]

I think we are getting diminishing returns, but that's just the way graphics are evolving. Each generational jump is (generally) smaller than the previous one. There are still some breakthrough technologies yet to come (RT for one) that will mean it's a bumpy ride down rather than a linear slope, but generally speaking we are requiring more and more firepower for less and less improvement.

 

[Stacey]

If they start chasing 4k and 120fps then yes visual upgrades will stall significantly.

 

[Expy]

We'll see once all the players show their cards.

 

[SmartWaffles]

We are not even close. Not until ray tracing becomes the norm.

 

[toy_brain]

We've been well into diminishing returns since the PS3/360.

 

[darkside]

I don't think its a matter of so much of diminishing returns as it is the number of studios capable (mainly in terms of budget) of taking advantage of the increase in graphical fidelity is shrinking

 

[Kamaros]

i don't believe so, no.

see a Maya render and compare to in game real time. one day consoles and PCs will be powerful enough to do that.

 

[tusk]

y'all gotta get hobbies these topics that obviously sprung from boredom are terrible

 

[Yerffej]

We are nowhere near what could be achieved yet.

 

[DeSolos]

We're hitting diminishing returns on how much effort(time and money) it takes to make said graphics.

 

[Mercador]

Yeah, in a sense. Visual leaps aren't that impressive but in the background, it still is.

 

[PS9]

Let's talk after the PS5 reveal showcase.

 

[Vitamin_B_Complex]

No way. We might have very pretty games, but most visuals this gen are quite static. I am certain that Control 2 will blow people away when they realize what was not possible current gen.
Look at something like Avatar. I'm not saying we are getting those visuals just that there is still a long way to go until we reach that level of fidelity. it's one thing to create a beautiful wheatfield in Ghost of Tsushima but it's something completely different having those field react perfectly to people walking through them without looking videogamey.

 

[sanstesy]

Already happend last-gen. I'm haven't been excited about any graphical advancements since the 720p/1080p resolution-bump.

 

[Teeth]

We're hitting budgetary diminishing returns.

The cost of developing eye-popping graphics have outstripped the budgets of all but the most AAAA of AAA companies.

That said, one benefit of really powerful consoles is that it brings the bottom up much more. Optimization is less necessary for non-AAA games to look and run "good" even if they aren't the best of the best.

 

[Rodrigues solitaire]

I think we're hitting time and budget constraints.

 

[Łazy]

Most of the worlds I liked in the past years didn't even need the hardware they were on. Whatever it means.
Needless to say more power doesn't do anything clear for me. It's usually more about creativity, skills, time and staff allowed for projects...

 

[Deleted member 18161]

Games have no way of implementing full on RT so absolutely not.

Click to shrink...

100%.

There is also a loooooong way to go in terms of geometric density of Worlds, character models, texture detail, draw distances and that's not even starting on all the physics based stuff like destructible environments, hair, water, cloth, fire, smoke etc. Then there is NPC's both in their number and behaviour.

I'd argue the FPS that was shown yesterday was very impressive and showed several improvements over current gen shooters and that was done by a single person... Imagine a AAA game built from the ground up for Series X or PS5 by a team of hundreds of people.

It will be fun to revisit these threads once we've seen AAA next gen only games revealed.

 

[Finaika]

Have you seen ray tracing?

 

[Joo]

In many ways yeah we've been hitting for a long time already, but something like RT and increased density in every aspect could change that and probably will. With especially resolution and to some extent texture detail etc, we definitely are.

 

[Deleted member 9584]

Let's talk after the PS5 reveal showcase.

Click to shrink...

Let stalk after the consoles come out. Sony definitely pulled some bait and switch in the graphical department at the PS4 reveal.

 

[CSX]

In terms of non-raytracing stuff, yes. This is why the GPU companies are pushing that tech so hard to make it be the next big thing

 

[Cess007]

We get this question since the PS2/XB transition to the PS3/360

 

[KamenSenshi]

In theory no, I guess not. Personally, that mark was hit long ago.

 

[Zedark]

If AA games looked that good from the presentation i can only imagine what actual next gen AAAA games look like.

Click to shrink...

This. The showcase didn't show you the best that graphics can get next gen by a country mile. There's a ton of improvement to be had, especially when devs get to focus only on next gen and can do away with current gen limitations.

 

[The Adder]

To my eye, yes. We've reached the point, for me, that even if games started looking like high budget CGI films it wouldn't really be as much of a shock as going from N64/PS1 fraphics to GCN/PS2. At this point, again for me, it's more refinement than improvement.

 

[Ushojax]

For me, yes. The amount of time and money needed to create something that is truly a visual leap forward is just not realistic for most developers. There are so many possible advancements in gameplay that are being neglected due to this obsession with pushing the graphical fidelity of games.

 

[-Le Monde-]

No. What we saw yesterday was cross gen games, and who knows if the developments for those versions were impacted by the pandemic.
This feels like the ps4/one comments before the current generation only games were revealed.

KZ, Infamous, Rise, Sunset Overdrive were massive upgrades over ps3/360 games.
Seriously, take a look at RDR2, and RDR1.

 

[PanzerKraken]

Folks been saying this at the start of every new console gen. We still have to see some of the big exclusives that push hardware as well as the games are gonna get even better looking as time goes on in the console cycle. But always those early next gen reveals often meet with similar comments of diminishing returns.

 

[Loanshark]

To a certain extent, yes. The proof for me is how games from last gen (ps3/360) still hold up very well on PC if you bump resolution and swap a few textures. Like, Mass Effect from 2007 on PC with a texture pack doesnt really look that out of place today. The same cannot be said of earlier generations with a few exceptions. Most PS2 or PS1 games for example look like crap in comparison, even with those same bumps. Low poly counts, rigid animations, basically no shaders, etc. It seems to me like the transition to HD became the cutoff point.

 

[Orioto]

If diminishing return means games are too realistic to be improved visually, hell no we're not there yet.

If it means, we've reached a point where the cost to create a noticeable gap is too high, well yeah maybe a little.

 

[808s & Villainy]

Here we go again
I don't think there will be a consensus anytime soon. There will always be massive disagreements on whether the graphical jumps between gens are getting smaller or remain the same, because people prioritize different aspects.

I personally fall in the former group and say yes, we've been getting diminishing returns since last gen, and I definitely think it'll be more apparent between the current gen and next gen. Models already look gorgeous and are started to escape the uncanny valley. The only big areas I see that still break the "illusion" of reality are hair/fur, fluid sims/dynamics and lighting. Aside from those the only limits are the skill of the modeler.

I also can't wait for people to comment and show they don't really know what the term diminishing returns means

 

[2Blackcats]

If you're downloading trailers from gamersyde and then watching them on a brand new TV then I guess you can judge. Same applies to sound.

Things have just moved beyond what most people are using to experience them.

 

[Joris-truly]

We've hit a wall in fidelity for sure, and that's totally fine. Of course it's gonna get a jump this gen but if i look at the TLOU2 trailer, i'm like "it's fine if this is the bar. Try to match that on lower budgets is difficult enough".

I hope the focus for nextgen is shifting more to physics development, reactivity and interesting evolutions in NPC interactions, rather than "moar graphics plz"

 

[Deleted member 17207]

Nope.

Once we see next gen only games, particularly from Sony, this won't wont be a question.

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[Chivalry]

I bet even the most advanced next gen games won't look all that significantly better than RDR2, aside from sharper textures and fancier lighting. It's just not realistic to spend much more time and money than that to achieve even greater fidelity. Pixar movies are just an hour and a half and even they need years and hundreds of millions of dollars to look that good. No matter the tech advancements, it all eventually narrows down to time/resources/and talent, and not many studios can afford $300m+ projects

 

[Odeko]

I think we've reached the point where the machines are more powerful than the majority of developers are willing to spend on visual fidelity. Not that they literally couldn't get any better technologically, but just that it won't be worth it to hire 15 dev studios to work on most projects like Ubisoft is doing with Valhalla.

So we'll see a few of those games unbelievably expensive technical showcases, and a lot of games that look fairly 8th gen but with the settings cranked up. Which is fine by me, I tend to dislike games that are so expensive they have to sell 10 million copies to break even and so play everything extremely safe.

 

[Septy]

People have been saying this since the HD era and yet games keep looking better.

 

[asmith906]

I feel like we've been hearing this since the ps3 era.

 

[pswii60]

Developer budget and resources rather than hardware are the main limiting factors for an obvious jump. Sony's developers aren't magic, they have significant budgets and resources, and long development times. That's why their games look so good.

 

[digitalrelic]

We absolutely are.

Hell, the difference between The Last of Us Part II on a PS4 Pro and a CGI film like, say, The Adventures of Tin Tin, is probably less of a difference to the average person than the difference between The Last of Us Part II on PS4 Pro vs the original The Last of Us on PS3.

Games have come so close to photorealism that it's just butter from here. What a great time to be into games.

 

[Yuntu]

I personally think games dont need to look better, but they definitly can look better.