Anecdotal evidence has me afraid we are absolutely fucked for the Mid-terms and onwards because voters are too dumb to blame the right entities.

[Nola]

Couple things, cause almost any time these conversations get brought up they tend to frame the dynamics of what is happening incorrectly.

People treat elections like some horse race and that there are these large swaths of voters flip flopping between parties that swing elections. Simply not true.

1.) Unless you are talking about massive successes or historical tragedy(The New Deal, JFK assassination, Clinton era economic boom + backlash against impeachment), the president's party always loses seats in mid terms.

2.) This is not because of massive shifts in voters, it's because the electorate is generally stable(most people vote the same party) but thermostatic(they just vote sometimes but not others) and the minority party's voters get activated and motivated while the incumbent's party typically get lazy and not as motivated to vote. What is likely to do in Biden and Dems(and 99% certainly it will), is that everyone with any sort of friend network probably has 1-4 Biden/Dem voters that just aren't gonna show up in November, while Republicans will be motivated voters and have larger turnout(plus, all the electoral fuckery working the system in their favor).

 

[Sirhc]

But why doesn't Biden just wave a magic wand and fix the drought in the southwest

Click to shrink...

This was my first thought when I saw this thread lmao.

People as a whole have zero fucking clue what the PotUS does and doesn't do.

 

[captive]

If people voted with actual evidence and not anecdotal evidence almost no one would vote republican.


The only thing you can do is volunteer as a canvaswr, phone/text caller etc. To maybe sway people's votes.

 

[Roytheone]

As a non American, I keep reading that the current presidents party always gets hit in the midterms 2 years later but it is actually a benefit in the re-elections 4 years later. Why is that?

 

[Rentaru]

You can't be Politically active and not know some of the problems of today stem from Trump.

 

[Teusery]

If Republicans win 2022 and 2024, what happens? Mass protests? It's hard to imagine after the massive BLM protests that people would just accept complete regression

 

[Relix]

If Republicans win 2022 and 2024, what happens? Mass protests? It's hard to imagine after the massive BLM protests that people would just accept complete regression

Click to shrink...

Nothing will happen. That's "democracy", you take the good and the bad.

 

[Maxim726x]

If Republicans win 2022 and 2024, what happens? Mass protests? It's hard to imagine after the massive BLM protests that people would just accept complete regression

Click to shrink...

Not much. More of what happened in 2016 through 2020.... Which basically amounted to jack shit.

Only scenario in which I see some kind of serious uprising is if, for example, Trump wins by a single state (could be PA) that was won through pure fuckery. That's when things can get bad.

Otherwise it will largely be business as usual.

 

[rjinaz]

Gas prices will be the number one thing that gets people out there to vote. I know other issues top polling, but people only get really motivated to vote when politics start effecting them personally.

Dems have the House, the Senate, and the presidency. Gas was at decade long lows during Trump

Basically, right or wrong most everybody is going to blame Democrats for has prices. I do not see the price of gas stabalizing much before November.

So yeah I expect that Dems will lose the house and senate. I do not think it will be a bloodbath because the numbers would work in Dems favor otherwise. But it will not matter. Biden will become an even more lame duck than he already is setting up a pretty easy Presidency win in my mind for Trump or Desantis in 2024.

Here is to hoping I am wrong, I just do not think I am.

I

 

[Capra]

If Republicans win 2022 and 2024, what happens? Mass protests? It's hard to imagine after the massive BLM protests that people would just accept complete regression

Click to shrink...

"The fascists took power democratically so we just have to deal with it because protesting fascism just makes us sore losers."

 

[Squirrel Killer]

As a non American, I keep reading that the current presidents party always gets hit in the midterms 2 years later but it is actually a benefit in the re-elections 4 years later. Why is that?

Click to shrink...

A presidential campaign is a huge deal and lifts turnout significantly. The presidential winner's campaign did a better job of that by definition, so when they're not running in the midterms, the electorate reverts closer to the mean.

 

[Cerulean_skylark]

OP next time try rolling out the John McCain example.

It's not enough to technically have power, you need enough votes. ONE VOTE stopped the republican senate from repealing ACA at the last second.
You need ENOUGH votes. If your neighbor wants things to get better they need to help ensure ENOUGH democratic votes to give them actual power. Not the bare minimum.

Hammer that one single point home. If they ever bring up another example, just tell them all the times EVERY GOP senator voted against fixing the situation. If they think voting for the party preventing fixing the issue is still excusable, then just do your best and cut them out.

 

[Thordinson]

You can't be Politically active and not know some of the problems of today stem from Trump.

Click to shrink...

Which problems stem directly from Trump? We've been on this course for decades, it's not a Trump thing.

OP next time try rolling out the John McCain example.

It's not enough to technically have power, you need enough votes. ONE VOTE stopped the republican senate from repealing ACA at the last second.
You need ENOUGH votes. If your neighbor wants things to get better they need to help ensure ENOUGH democratic votes to give them actual power. Not the bare minimum.

Hammer that one single point home. If they ever bring up another example, just tell them all the times EVERY GOP senator voted against fixing the situation. If they think voting for the party preventing fixing the issue is still excusable, then just do your best and cut them out.

Click to shrink...

The problem is that we've been a few votes from progress a lot recently, so folks are illusioned or tired. We don't have a public option because of a few votes, we don't have a new VRA because of a few votes, etc. Even when there was a large majority, we've been a few votes away. Rightfully or wrongfully, folks are going to look elsewhere for help.

 

[Cerulean_skylark]

Which problems stem directly from Trump? We've been on this course for decades, it's not a Trump thing.

Click to shrink...

GOP senators before Trump "Trump is a racist"


GOP senators after Trump "We need to be more racist"

Yes, they ALWAYS were racist. BUT, MAINSTREAMING that opinion in bald-faced terms DOES affect society at large.
Also, Q anon is a Trump-centered cult post his election.

The problem is that we've been a few votes from progress a lot recently, so folks are illusioned or tired. We don't have a public option because of a few votes, we don't have a new VRA because of a few votes, etc. Even when there was a large majority, we've been a few votes away. Rightfully or wrongfully, folks are going to look elsewhere for help.

Click to shrink...

Right but the point is you have to give people easily digestible, clear reasons for why they're tired and disillusioned and communicate that point effectively. Just yelling, or saying "what about X issue" doesn't help. Give them an example when not ENOUGH votes mattered in the opposite direction, explain THAT issue. If you want your neighbor to vote you need to demonstrate what they're voting FOR. showing them all the progressive things that we were just a few votes away from may do that. They can either vote for the party of absolutely no, or the party of close, but not quite there. The whole goal is to tip the critical mass. If they think things are bad and not getting better, then your neighbor needs to push harder in the direction where help isn't getting stonewalled.

Also, even threads like this where people are distraught about "we ARE going to lose!" has a demotivating effect.
If you remember forums, reddit, etc BEFORE 2016. EVERYONE thought Trump would lose, but goddamn their base was fucking fired up to vote for the assured loser. a huge part of motivating politics is NEVER acting like a loser. Trump knows this, but Dems refuse to learn the lesson. YOU as much as they are not ACTING like future winners. Your neighbor needs to feel like he's part of a movement, a resistance.

Holding fast for ACTUAL fucking ideals against the incoming tide of uncertainty. It's about faith and dedication, not polls and numbers. That's why they were so fucking successful

 

[onyx]

I mean there was already actual evidence that the Democrats would lose doing the midterms. The only question is how bad.

 

[onadesertedisland]

Unless a miracle happens dems will lose midterms. But the Supreme Court stacking has already made sure the US is fucked for years.

The way I see it, the only way to "fix" the US is to blow up the political landscape completely. Admit that the constitution is not a symbol of freedom and justice, but a shitty old piece of paper that is holding the country back in so many ways. Having the oldest active constitution shouldn't be a piece of pride. It's a problem. Write a new one, like every other country has done when they realized the world had moved on.

That is the way to move away from the two party system and force a lot of the money out of politics. The two biggest systemic problems. Of course none of the people in power or the people that fund them are interested in this, but it is what is actually needed for the country to get to a better place, instead of slowly down the drain.

Click to shrink...

The us has this weird religious connection to the constitution. It's almost like the populace needs it. There needs to be divine beginning or the mythology falls apart. There can't be new gods or prophets, so we give them new names. We have secret rituals performed by all powerful, unquestionable final rulers that interpret what our new gods meant. We have representatives that treat us like infants and ignore our pleas. Our apparent democracy is a façade. It's meant to appease, to give the appearance of possibility of change.

It's all a stupid game that benefits no one but the ruling class. I'm so tired of it.

 

[thewienke]

No chance people weigh gas prices over Roe v Wade and Great Replacement Theory


Right?

Click to shrink...

Economic issues > social issues

Every single election

We frankly haven't had economic issues like this since 2008. The entirety of the 2010s were either relatively stable or prosperous for much of the population which I think helped diversify the conversation and media coverage. Trump himself was certainly a lightning rod that amplified social issues to the forefront.

But would BLM be able to cut through the noise right now and make front page headlines? I'm not convinced that the death of Roe v Wade will even make noise above rapidly rising rent/mortgage, gas, and food prices. Roe v Wade impacts child bearing individuals in specific circumstances (and only in certain states) whereas the latter is impacting everyone every single day. It's a great unifying issue for everyone but the 1%.

 

[Cerulean_skylark]

Also of note, I think the victories by progressive dems over the establishment ones in some recent high profile primaries show there IS excitement and power behind a movement that supports progress. People are just focused on the losers rather than rallying around the winners.

 

[Thordinson]

GOP senators before Trump "Trump is a racist"


GOP senators after Trump "We need to be more racist"

Yes, they ALWAYS were racist. BUT, MAINSTREAMING that opinion in bald-faced terms DOES affect society at large.
Also, Q anon is a Trump-centered cult post his election.

Click to shrink...

The problems with the American electorate and the GOP predate Trump. Trump is the chickens coming home to roost, not the starting point.

Right but the point is you have to give people easily digestible, clear reasons for why they're tired and disillusioned and communicate that point effectively. Just yelling, or saying "what about X issue" doesn't help. Give them an example when not ENOUGH votes mattered in the opposite direction, explain THAT issue. If you want your neighbor to vote you need to demonstrate what they're voting FOR. showing them all the progressive things that we were just a few votes away from may do that. They can either vote for the party of absolutely no, or the party of close, but not quite there. The whole goal is to tip the critical mass. If they think things are bad and not getting better, then your neighbor needs to push harder in the direction where help isn't getting stonewalled.

Click to shrink...

It may be more effective to scare them into voting for Dems instead. The problem is folks don't get points for trying and failing. "We tried but we needed more votes to actually do something" isn't a compelling talking point. It doesn't seem to work especially when the same politicians promised something and failed to deliver.

Also, more emphasis should be put on the party needing to do this messaging instead of other folks. It's not my job to get folks to vote for Dems, it's on the Dems to do that. I have limited mental bandwidth and energy and I don't particularly want to spend it on the electoral process.

 

[Cerulean_skylark]

1. The problems with the American electorate and the GOP predate Trump. Trump is the chickens coming home to roost, not the starting point.

2. It may be more effective to scare them into voting for Dems instead. The problem is folks don't get points for trying and failing. "We tried but we needed more votes to actually do something" isn't a compelling talking point. It doesn't seem to work especially when the same politicians promised something and failed to deliver.

Click to shrink...

Here is the problem right here.

1. On the example I gave you didn't read that I said exactly this but gave a reason why this time its different.

2. You didn't read and digest my point, which was...

It's not effective to run on scare tactics and not being the other person. You have to frame it in a way that shows what they're supposed to be voting FOR. The problem of common political discourse. People don't actually listen to what you're saying.

 

[HarmonyFlame]

What 99.5%of people in the U.S. don't understand is that inflation is always simply a monetary policy set forth by a central bank. It's not about supply chains or corporate greed. It's about the money itself expanding in supply. Money printing is not just a meme, its why assets and commodities in general are off the charts and why the Fed Reserve had to manually increase interest rates. Your money is becoming weaker by design. Not just here in the U.S. but even more-so everywhere else.

This fundamentally has little to do with the current administration in the white house, as it has been the monetary policy of the United States for over 50 years now, but you certainly can't expect normal politically active people who likely understand very little the difference between the fake Keynesian understanding of economics that has been wrongly pontificated on western societies versus an actual form of economics based in reality such as the Austrian view. Most of the money printed since the pandemic was printed under Tump to begin with. Some reports estimate we have expanded the dollar supply by 40% in 2 years....

Inflation is a monetary policy not a political one. At this point the United States can't stop printing money otherwise it can't pay for its debts and the country will default, which would be a much bigger problem for any administration. So instead we will continue to play the game of printing money, expanding the balance sheet of the FED, giving it to bond holders and those closest to the money spigot, while everyone else holding that currency watches as their purchasing power evaporates and everything becomes more and more expensive. All the while pretending inflation is a supply chain phenomenon that seemingly can't be tamed and raising interest rates as a way to tighten spending. Rinse and repeat.

edit:spelling

 

[Thordinson]

Here is the problem right here.

1. On the example I gave you didn't read that I said exactly this but gave a reason why this time its different.

2. You didn't read and digest my point, which was...

It's not effective to run on scare tactics and not being the other person. You have to frame it in a way that shows what they're supposed to be voting FOR. The problem of common political discourse. People don't actually listen to what you're saying.

Click to shrink...

It is effective to run on scare tactics as evidenced by the GOP having consistent turnout. They are turned out to vote largely due to scare tactics.

I live in a red state. The refrain is mostly what the Dems will do in power that get folks out to vote for the GOP, not what the GOP will do.

 

[GameAddict411]

First off, don't worry about things you can't control. Things will definitely get worse for the country and you can't do anything about it outside of voting in every election. Secondly, knowing Americans they have the attention span of about 2 weeks. If gas prices fall well before the election day it's impact will go down.

 

[Rentaru]

Which problems stem directly from Trump? We've been on this course for decades, it's not a Trump thing.

Click to shrink...

Abortion rights about to be gone( also putting judges in for corruption), covid deaths(disbanded pandemic warning group also), making hate groups feel more emboldened(just had another tragedy).signed EO out of his ass to nullify anything climate change related.

 

[Zombegoast]

These are the moderates that dems are trying to chase after.

Things have gotten worse with Nixon and his war on drugs

Reagan(glad he fucking suffered) lead to income inequality

Bush leading to the Great Recession

Trump handling the pandemic and then try to overthrow the government

And this idiot says thing can't get any worse when Red States are criminalizing abortion, destroying education by banning books.

 

[Thordinson]

First off, don't worry about things you can't control. Things will definitely get worse for the country and you can't do anything about it outside of voting in every election. Secondly, knowing Americans they have the attention span of about 2 weeks. If gas prices fall well before the election day it's impact will go down.

Click to shrink...

There is plenty you can do to help folks outside of every election. In fact, it's incredibly important to do more than just vote in every election.

Abortion rights about to be gone( also putting judges in for corruption), covid deaths(disbanded pandemic warning group also), making hate groups feel more emboldened(just had another tragedy).signed EO out of his ass to nullify anything climate change related.

Click to shrink...

SCOTUS would have been Conservative no matter what GOP President won, likely the same with Covid deaths. Hate groups being more emboldened could likely be shown as being tied to Trump's rise. Those EOs would be signed by any GOP President.

 

[Cerulean_skylark]

It is effective to run on scare tactics as evidenced by the GOP having consistent turnout. They are turned out to vote largely due to scare tactics.

Click to shrink...

This is not true and is indicated by the Trump presidency.
Trump promised a wall. He promised to make people rich. He promised to repeal ACA. He promised an end to Roe.

Republicans are promising A LOT of very tangible things.

Republicans historically have NOT had very good turn-out. The entire phenomenon of Trump was that he specifically activated the disillusioned extremely racist
fuckers who lived in states that often swung democratic.

 

[ftchrs]

What 99.5%of people in the U.S. don't understand is that inflation is always simply a monetary policy set forth by a central bank. It's not about supply chains or corporate greed. It's about the money itself expanding in supply. Money printing is not just a meme, its why assets and commodities in general are off the charts and why the Fed Reserve had to manually increase interest rates. Your money is becoming weaker by design. Not just here in the U.S. but even more-so everywhere else.

This fundamentally has little to do with the current administration in the white house, as it has been the monetary policy of the United States for over 50 years now, but you certainly can't expect normal politically active people who likely understand very little the difference between the fake Keynesian understanding of economics that has been wrongly pontificated on western societies versus an actual form of economics based in reality such as the Austrian view.

Inflation is a monetary policy not a political one. At this point the United States can't stop printing money otherwise it can't pay for its debts and the country will default, which would be a much bigger problem for any administration. So instead we will continue to play the game of printing money, giving it to bond holders and those closest to the money spigot, while everyone else holding that currency watches as their purchasing power evaporates and everything becomes more and more expensive. All the while pretending inflation is a supply chain phenomenon that seemingly can't be tamed and raising interest rates as a way to tighten spending. Rinse and repeat.

Click to shrink...

You need to work through the problem sets at https://www.core-econ.org/the-economy

 

[ThiefofDreams]

You can just look to this forum to see how fickle liberals and progressives are. If nothing is 100% perfect, it might as well not exist, or have happened.

Meanwhile right wingers will celebrate every inch of a yard.

 

[Thordinson]

This is not true and is indicated by the Trump presidency.
Trump promised a wall. He promised to make people rich. He promised to repeal ACA. He promised an end to Roe.

Republicans are promising A LOT of very tangible things.

Republicans historically have NOT had very good turn-out. The entire phenomenon of Trump was that he specifically activated the disillusioned extremely racist
fuckers who lived in states that often swung democratic.

Click to shrink...

Trump also hammered home what would happen if the Dems got into power. "Open borders!" "Lawlessness!" "Abortion on demand!" etc.

The GOP in my state aren't really promising tangible things other than the border wall. Literally, every ad I see and get in the mail is about how things will get far worse under Dems and they consistently get good turnout and win.

Not everything is about presidential elections. The GOP has great turnout in a lot of places for many races.

I'm not saying that there is no benefit in saying what folks are voting for, there is. But scaring folks IS effective. Do both.

 

[FLUXCapacitor]

I personally know 5 people who voted for Biden and plan on voting Republican in the midterms and 2024 🤦‍♂️

 

[Wackamole]

Yeah you can see this huge wave of stupidity in a lot of countries. USA might actually be the worst though.

 

[Deleted member 9241]

I have a bad feeling about Michigan going red from top to bottom this cycle.

 

[onadesertedisland]

I think it's on brand for America to freak out about an economy that is messed up because of a once in a century pandemic isn't being fixed immediately. And even more on brand for corporate America to make out like bandits by raising prices under the guise of 'inflation' while wages stagnate.

 

[Teusery]

Also of note, I think the victories by progressive dems over the establishment ones in some recent high profile primaries show there IS excitement and power behind a movement that supports progress. People are just focused on the losers rather than rallying around the winners.

Click to shrink...

Can the progressives beat the moderates that try to stop them? I was reading about the 6'8 guy in Penn and he seems to have a good amount of hype around him.

Honestly I thought things were looking decent in the U.S. based on what I'm seeing in other spaces.

 

[meowdi gras]

an actual form of economics based in reality such as the Austrian view.

Click to shrink...

🤣

 

[SFLUFAN]

🤣

Click to shrink...

Should we expect anything less from someone with a cryptocurrency avatar?

 

[StraySheep]

It's funny how I live on the other side of the world from the USA, and we also have the inflation and rising energy costs! Who would have thought that the democratic party in America had this kind of power!

Click to shrink...

For the love of fucking christ why is it not being blasted on the news every night that inflation is a worldwide issue? And gas prices too? This is driving me fucking insane.

 

[Ryuelli]

The education system in 'Murica...ugh. People just don't want to or don't know how to think critically anymore. Sad.

Click to shrink...

...Anymore? As a teacher, education has never been the priority in this country.

I'm reading this book right now, the amount of issues and attitudes regarding education that were present 150 or 100 years ago that are still just as (unfortunately) relevant today is incredibly depressing.

 

[Clefargle]

You just gotta increase turnout

 

[Sulik2]

We are even more fucked then you imagine, because of the new voter suppression and electoral subversion laws even if the electorate wasn't a bunch of morons the GOP already has a massive advantage. We could get more votes in all the red states and the electoral boards are just going to give the seats to the red candidate anyways.

The ruling party typically doesn't do too hot in midterms and republicans this time are especially fucking pissed about everything. I'm not sure if anger about Roe v. Wade getting overturned is going to be enough to make the difference. That's not even taking into account voter suppression tactics, etc.

Click to shrink...

The anger isn't going to make much of a difference IMHO. The women who are angry about roe were already going to vote Dem. It's not going to get many new voters. The one chance we had was a new voting rights act before the midterms and that hope is dead. If you truly want to protect the rights of women and minorities its time to move out of red states, buy a gun and get ready for the fascists to have total power after 2024.

 

[Ensorcell]

People with limited critical thinking skills have a hard time with these things. They don't see the people to blame because those people are behind the scenes, but they have to lay the blame somewhere. Who do they turn to? Well the U.S. President is the most powerful person in the world to them, so they natually assume it has to be that person.

 

[onadesertedisland]

The education system in 'Murica...ugh. People just don't want to or don't know how to think critically anymore. Sad.

Click to shrink...

The right wing actually fights against critical thinking because it 'undermines authority'... Imagine that.

 

[Gpsych]

I personally know 5 people who voted for Biden and plan on voting Republican in the midterms and 2024 🤦‍♂️

Click to shrink...

Same. And this is in solid blue Fort Collins. These are people that have been die hard democrats for decades too. All of it is because of housing prices and inflation. I asked them what they wanted Biden to do about house prices and their response was essentially, "Well, he's the president! Trump would have have just done an executive order or something to fix it."

 

[TrueSloth]

I blame Biden for being too soft. We have to move beyond incremental politics and can't play the game by the normal rules, because Republicans haven't.

 

[onadesertedisland]

As a non American, I keep reading that the current presidents party always gets hit in the midterms 2 years later but it is actually a benefit in the re-elections 4 years later. Why is that?

Click to shrink...

It's a pendulum of perceived incompetence.

 

[Crayolan]

Most people don't understand how the US government/political system works beyond "Biden is president, bad things happened, it's his fault".

 

[HarmonyFlame]

🤣

Click to shrink...

Thought provoking reply, indeed. Keynesian economics is akin to a make believe idealogy that western governments sought after as a way to rationalize and justify endless monetary inflation to fund endless wars. Prove me wrong.

 

[Wilf Netherton]

Thought provoking reply, indeed. Keynesian economics is akin to a make believe idealogy that western governments sought after as a way to rationalize and justify endless monetary inflation to fund endless wars. Prove me wrong.

Click to shrink...

Oh hey it's a goldbug. Where've you guys been for the past fourteen years?

 

[onadesertedisland]

Thought provoking reply, indeed. Keynesian economics is akin to a make believe idealogy that western governments sought after as a way to rationalize and justify endless monetary inflation to fund endless wars. Prove me wrong.

Click to shrink...

The field of economics in academia is modern superstition. Prove me wrong.