Couple things, cause almost any time these conversations get brought up they tend to frame the dynamics of what is happening incorrectly.
People treat elections like some horse race and that there are these large swaths of voters flip flopping between parties that swing elections. Simply not true.
1.) Unless you are talking about massive successes or historical tragedy(The New Deal, JFK assassination, Clinton era economic boom + backlash against impeachment), the president's party always loses seats in mid terms.
2.) This is not because of massive shifts in voters, it's because the electorate is generally stable(most people vote the same party) but thermostatic(they just vote sometimes but not others) and the minority party's voters get activated and motivated while the incumbent's party typically get lazy and not as motivated to vote. What is likely to do in Biden and Dems(and 99% certainly it will), is that everyone with any sort of friend network probably has 1-4 Biden/Dem voters that just aren't gonna show up in November, while Republicans will be motivated voters and have larger turnout(plus, all the electoral fuckery working the system in their favor).
People treat elections like some horse race and that there are these large swaths of voters flip flopping between parties that swing elections. Simply not true.
1.) Unless you are talking about massive successes or historical tragedy(The New Deal, JFK assassination, Clinton era economic boom + backlash against impeachment), the president's party always loses seats in mid terms.
2.) This is not because of massive shifts in voters, it's because the electorate is generally stable(most people vote the same party) but thermostatic(they just vote sometimes but not others) and the minority party's voters get activated and motivated while the incumbent's party typically get lazy and not as motivated to vote. What is likely to do in Biden and Dems(and 99% certainly it will), is that everyone with any sort of friend network probably has 1-4 Biden/Dem voters that just aren't gonna show up in November, while Republicans will be motivated voters and have larger turnout(plus, all the electoral fuckery working the system in their favor).