Manu Raju
@mkraju
ABC poll: How serious of a problem is it that President Trump encouraged the Ukrainian President to investigate Joe Biden and his son, Hunter? Very serious 43% Somewhat serious 21% Not so serious 19% Not serious at all 17%
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ABC Poll Numbers on the Trump-Ukraine scandal released
- Thread starter Shard Shinjuku
- Start date
Manu Raju
@mkraju
ABC poll: How serious of a problem is it that President Trump encouraged the Ukrainian President to investigate Joe Biden and his son, Hunter? Very serious 43% Somewhat serious 21% Not so serious 19% Not serious at all 17%
That is huge. Given how tribal Americans are with their politics.
It's legit a big deal, his insane base (35% of the country) will never care what he does but the fact that independents seemingly care is a seismic shift, first scandal for him that has finally taken hold.
Since Trumps approval numbers held at low 40s except for one poll if this truly represented his base like you assume (I don't see it representing that) then that would be a healthy sign of erosion.
OP
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There is always going to be a base of a base in American politics as even Nixon on the eve of his Impeachment/Investigation still had like 25 percent.
I think Trump's floor is really 15 to 20%. Those are the racists and bigots. There others in the 36% are diet racists that ignore the bigotry and live in a delusional world where Trump is an economic genius and Obama caused economic anxiety, despite factually Obama had better annual .inx performance and unemployment % improvements. If the economy tanks this group's bubble bursts.
Nixon had a solid 25 to 35? percent base of support right until he resigned. Some people will never give up on him.
Meanwhile on planet Earth, those are some bad early numbers for the president. The story broke through for a lot of people quickly and hit their internal Richter scales hard. And with more revelations on Trump's misuse of the classification system practically on the hour, those numbers might worsen.
Also a little telling, to me, is how the percentages indicate that a lot of soft Trump supporters might be bothered by this. 64 percent of respondents were pressed by this nonsense and the president is lucky to poll on the low 40s for approvals.
Meanwhile on planet Earth, those are some bad early numbers for the president. The story broke through for a lot of people quickly and hit their internal Richter scales hard. And with more revelations on Trump's misuse of the classification system practically on the hour, those numbers might worsen.
Also a little telling, to me, is how the percentages indicate that a lot of soft Trump supporters might be bothered by this. 64 percent of respondents were pressed by this nonsense and the president is lucky to poll on the low 40s for approvals.
Trump's lowest approval in Gallup is 35. Barring complete economic collapse, it's unlikely he'll get much lower. Those are the committed ones.
Trumpublicans going to go Trump-qaedq when everything is all said and done. Should start getting ready to label them a national security threat and terrorists, not that they aren't already.
Isn't it already implied in the whole thing? I don't really get making that distinction. If you know anything about this scandal, you know about that part as well, I would think.
Oh wow, it turns out that pursuing impeachment isn't pissing off anybody but the same people who would never criticize the President under any circumstance!
These are bad numbers for Trump. Never forget that Hoover still got 40% of the vote in 1932. He still got blown the fuck out.
You know what thought is always in the back of my head?
I know several people who support this piece of shit but when asked or polled will say they don't support him out of fear of being ridiculed. How many thousands of people out there are like this? What if these polls are off?
Sorry, just some Sunday morning worries.
I know several people who support this piece of shit but when asked or polled will say they don't support him out of fear of being ridiculed. How many thousands of people out there are like this? What if these polls are off?
Sorry, just some Sunday morning worries.
I think it's hard for people to contextualize a blowout, but like, this is what the 2018 House results would have looked like in the Electoral College:
And that map is slightly outdated - Arizona did end up going for the Democrats, and North Carolina had one Congressional race where the Republican ran uncontested. Had even a generic Democrat run there, it probably would have been enough to overcome their lead in the Congressional vote. Additionally, Georgia, Ohio and Montana ended up being within five points (the reason Texas is shaded pink there).
Not saying it'll be easy (the Democratic nominee will no doubt be tarred and feathered as badly as Clinton was, although I'm not convinced it'll stick in the same way), but like, even on that map you can see how Democrats just blew Republicans the fuck out in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania last year.
Yep. Time for the usual historical reminder:
Nixon had 29% approval on the day he resigned.
And I guarantee you if on the day of Nixon's resignation he was up for re-election he'd have received more than 29% of the vote.
Not surprised. Problem is he won't be removed from office because Republicans covet that 36 percent too much.
Back then it probably would have been around 40%.
Now? Bump that up to 45%.
55-45 is the best result I see for any Democrat against Trump next year. Would still be a wipeout in the Electoral College (see the above map, maybe flip Texas, Georgia and Ohio), pad the House majority a little and deliver the Senate.
I would say no. If the question were "How serious of a problem is it that President Trump encouraged the Ukrainian President to investigate Joe Biden and his son by means of selling arms to Ukraine?" I think you get more people to say it is a serious problem. Because you aren't necessarily only getting people on these polls that know all of it. The fact that only the first part without the second is still polling really badly is something.
southpaw@nycsouthpaw
CBS published a Monmouth poll on Aug 22 that found 41% of Americans supported an impeachment inquiry (72% Ds, 39% Inds, 8% Rs). https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_082219/ …
CBS's new YouGov poll finds that 55% support for an impeachment inquiry (87% Ds, 49% Inds, 23% Rs). https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-impeachment-inquiry-poll-cbs-news-poll-finds-majority-of-americans-and-democrats-approve/ … https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1178316330631663616 …
With the caveat that I'm comparing different pollsters here, the indication that all the different partisan groups have moved more or less in lockstep toward supporting the impeachment process (Ds +15%, Inds +10%, Rs +15%) seems more significant than the play it's getting.
12:14 PM - Sep 29, 2019
You don't necessarily need them to. What you need is for them to dislike Trump enough that they stay home, and then just to make sure Dem voters actually show up.
Conservative voters aren't gonna vote D in significant numbers, that's not the point. You want their vote depressed. They're less likely to turn out for someone they think deserves to be pushed out of office.
