Aaron Greenberg on Gamepass sustainability

[FiXalaS]

I'm a Halo fan and I'm massively concerned.

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It's a sub. Sub has to cost low to be appealing.

This concern is weird honestly. Game expectations shouldn't change, and these games will still be sold full price for pass AND and none pass subscribers. Netflix didn't change the movie industry even when it boomed, if anything it helped by having a place for mid projects/shows. Netflix also puts a lot into their own originals, to meet the people's expectations, and let them keep on subbing for amazing content.

Microsoft will keep doing just that, keep making great content to make gamepass be worth a sub. Once the content starts changing because of concern of cost, it will only hurt the appeal of gamepass overall which is something Microsoft doesn't want to happen.

 

[oni-link]

Acceptance of the fact that ecosystems are more important than plastic boxes. Game Pass will eventually reach 50 or even 100 million subscribers even though not nearly as many XSX will have been sold at that time.
"Concerned" people seem to be recognizing that Game Pass might indeed be a winner. They don't want MS to win though, and that's why they are losing their minds.

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This is such a funny take to me, if Gamepass works, we all win. Sony won't sit by and do nothing as MS run away with an amazing idea that makes tons of cash

I can't imagine anyone is jealous of Gamepass. It's a great deal, if it's sustainable in it's current model, great, then soon everyone will adopt that model and we all win, if not, and it's tweaked, then everyone will adopt the tweaked model and we can decide if that's something we're interested in

Edit: Expecting Sony not to follow suit with it's own Gamepass if it works long term, would be like expecting Sony not to bother with paid online after a competitor was able to prove it was profitable. The only reason Sony wouldn't do it's own Gamepass is if it looks at MS and decides it's not viable in the long term

 

[ACL]

With GamePass doing its best to become the equivalent of Netflix in gaming, I really don't see a reason to act concerned about Microsofts profitability, it's a very aggressive business model that targets their competitors and it seems to be totally worth the cost to Microsoft for this very reason. Basically the evolution of undercutting the competition with subsidized Hardware and in particular undercutting Sega Saturn with a 299$ Playstation in 1995.

 

[Shairi]

I'm not losing sleep over Microsoft losing money with Gamepass.

It's the awful side effects for devs that aren't on the service who are losing out sales because of the price dumping that Gamepass brings to the market.

The subscription has incredibly value for gamers for now, I agree on that, but it could shift the whole industry in a negative way if all other big players adopted that approach.

 

[Avitus]

When you start selling a basket of goods, the individual importance of each good drops dramatically. This may or may not be compatible with games, but the early returns are kind of sketchy. It's really on Microsoft to curate things and guide their own studios towards quality. Another gen like their last but with a sub price isn't going to accomplish anything. It would be a huge wasted opportunity, regardless of what Sony does.

 

[Betamaxbandit]

I am PC gamer first and I am concerned.

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can you articulate why you are "concerned" what impact does MS gamepass sustainability have on your day to day life or hoby at this moment in time? Not a troll post or anything, just genuinly curious.

 

[Rodelero]

If this model of Gamepass makes them good money in the long term, it will stay as it is. If they feel it can be tweaked to maximise profit, then that could happen too

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Some of it isn't up to them. If gaming goes heavily down the subscription path (I suspect it will), there is going to be a massive exclusivity war like there is with TV. Right now they're the main player and it's easy for them to monopolise content, but as others enter the fray they won't find it so easy. More generally, right now the Game Pass deal is clearly temporary. A lot of people got in on those three year GPU subscriptions with the $1 deal. Outside of that it's still easy to get heavily discounted Game Pass. This will not be part of Microsoft's long term plan when they move from growing the subscriber base to reaping their rewards.

They could only make all first party games join Gameplass after 6 months to 1 year for example, as this would mean day 1 sales of new games would go up, while the Gamepass deal would still be great value

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I'd be surprised if they do that. I do think we're going to see more and more evidence that Game Pass cannibalises sales for better known games (as we did with Gears 5), but day one first party is their USP right now. I think it will continue to be the case.

 

[fourfourfun]

The question around sustainability usually comes around looking at other markets and seeing the challenges they face. Spotify gets dragged over the coals for not being particularly good for the artists, just about being financially viable but they can certainly talk about being good value for the customer.

Also, the big threat for Microsoft is around publishers starting their own services.

 

[gamer forever]

The "concerned" people are mostly Sony fans though that seem to be in kind of a denial phase. Acceptance will eventually come.

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There is genuine concern at what microsoft are trying to do to the market. We don't want a windows situation in this market, do we?

 

[Sweep14]

Gamepass is sustainable. Just not with $1 subscriptions.

 

[Puffy]

The "concerned" people are mostly Sony fans though that seem to be in kind of a denial phase. Acceptance will eventually come.

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If that's true, it probably stems from mostly Xbox fans pushing gamepass as the "be all end all" method of consuming games and needs to be adopted by all platform holders less they be deemed anticonsumer. We're gud luv, enjoy

 

[FJimbonda]

Stalker on game pass, eh. Might pay a dollar to demo (play through more like) the game when it comes out.

First thing that makes me want to give some money to the netflix of games.

 

[dex3108]

can you articulate why you are "concerned" what impact does MS gamepass sustainability have on your day to day life or hoby at this moment in time? Not a troll post or anything, just genuinly curious.

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Will MS start designing games to keep people subbing? Will MS start releasing smaller/filler games to keep people subbing? There is no way that game like Uncharted or Horizon are worth more putting on Sub service day 1 instead of selling it at full price.

 

[Golvellius]

If that's true, it probably stems from mostly Xbox fans pushing gamepass as the "be all end all" method of consuming games and needs to be adopted by all platform holders less they be deemed anticonsumer. We're gud luv, enjoy

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Certainly not me. I actually hope that Sony doesn't invest any money in PS Now. We seem to agree on that at least.

 

[twistedbasis]

can you articulate why you are "concerned" what impact does MS gamepass sustainability have on your day to day life or hoby at this moment in time? Not a troll post or anything, just genuinly curious.

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It comes down to maximizing the lifetime value of that subscriber. How do you do that? Perhaps by designing games with more social features since friends pressure other friends into spending money. Or maybe you hide features/lore/gameplay behind a "season" and only give access to the snowy portion of the Halo Infinite ring during season 7, stringing folks along and continuing a subscription for far longer than they would otherwise. Maybe your game is incomplete at launch and you string them along for months until you fix it properly, all the while keeping them in the ecosystem. Instead of providing a great, epic, complete experience near launch, you deliver a bunch of small updates and force folks to again remain in the ecosystem for no other purpose than $$ while watering down the entire experience.

It very much pushes the state of the business. I'm not sure it pushes the state of the art (technically or artistically).

 

[ACL]

Will MS start designing games to keep people subbing? Will MS start releasing smaller/filler games to keep people subbing? There is no way that game like Uncharted or Horizon are worth more putting on Sub service day 1 instead of selling it at full price.

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It's interesting to see that "concerns" about GamePasses viability for Microsoft, are often thinly veiled concerns about Sony.

 

[Betamaxbandit]

Will MS start designing games to keep people subbing? Will MS start releasing smaller/filler games to keep people subbing? There is no way that game like Uncharted or Horizon are worth more putting on Sub service day 1 instead of selling it at full price.

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Not trying to come off as rude but you are a PC player (with a Sony mascot avatar no less) what does it matter to you personally what MS release on their platform or via gamepass. It looks like you have no interest in any of their games so does it really impact you at all if they were to go down that route? (which there is no current indication that is the case anyway)

 

[Theorry]

Gamepass will be a mix of every game. Thats why they invested also in different kind of studios.
Its needs to be attracting for for everybody to join. One will join for Flight Simulator, the other for Psychonauts and the other one for Halo.
They just released two SP focused games and specific games with Ori and Gears Tactics and they release next month Tell me Why. They will have a mix of everything.

 

[Santar]

People are too quick with labeling concerns as "trolling". There are genuine concerns with how this type of service can negatively affect the game industry in the future. Which is what concerns me. Change shouldn't just be accepted because it's change, not all change is good.
Devaluing of games is a real thing. With more and more people getting used to getting all the games they'd ever want for 1$ a month, regular "pay to actually own" game sales will no doubt go down. We already see it now with people going "I'll wait until it's on game pass".

The problem is most people can't be arsed to think about potential pitfalls until they are actually in them. All they see is "wow, thousands of games for 1$ a month, yeah!". Fast forward a couple of years and the same people will be saying "why are all games a live service now?!"

Personally I've never enjoyed subscribing or renting stuff, I want to own it so I can use it at my own time and not be beholden to some outside force as to how and when I use my stuff.

 

[oni-link]

Not trying to come off as rude but you are a PC player (with a Sony mascot avatar no less) what does it matter to you personally what MS release on their platform or via gamepass. It looks like you have no interest in any of their games so does it really impact you at all if they were to go down that route? (which there is no current indication that is the case anyway)

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Because nothing exists in a vacuum. A lot of people were annoyed at Battlefront II in 2017 trying to force pay to win mechanics into games, not because they gave a shit about EA or EA games, but because if it ended up being a massive hit then others would have followed suit

That said, I don't think Gamepass is enough to change game design so drastically. We've been on a decade long push where people want longer and longer games, and episodic games tend to do poorly, so I doubt MS will suddenly make all it's teams push out 3 hour long games as a means to keep content coming

 

[Soap]

The long game is to get people hooked on gamepass and raise the price gradually. Basically the Netflix model.

 

[Golvellius]

It's interesting to see that "concerns" about GamePasses viability for Microsoft, are often thinly veiled concerns about Sony.

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So true.

 

[Knight613]

I basically think Game Pass will raise its price in a couple years and just put out some PR about how in order to keep or improve quality of games that come to Game Pass, they will need to raise the monthly price by whatever amount.

The sustainability of Game Pass is in getting millions hooked enough to see a value and then finding out the maximum they are willing to pay for that value.

 

[dex3108]

Not trying to come off as rude but you are a PC player (with a Sony mascot avatar no less) what does it matter to you personally what MS release on their platform or via gamepass. It looks like you have no interest in any of their games so does it really impact you at all if they were to go down that route? (which there is no current indication that is the case anyway)

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Yes you know all my tastes based on my avatar that is there just because I find Sackboy cute in Assassin's Creed outfit. Guess who owns Halo MCC, Gears games, Sunset Overdrive for example? Guess who is big fan of Ori games? Guess who was waiting for new Fable and hoped that it will be Single Player action RPG? Yes that is me, I like a lot of MS franchises.

 

[Bold One]

I think so, it's a long term play. They'd be willing to lose up front to become the Netflix of gaming.

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Strange, because as far as I know, Netflix ain't profitable.

 

[gremlinz1982]

People are too quick with labeling concerns as "trolling". There are genuine concerns with how this type of service can negatively affect the game industry in the future. Which is what concerns me. Change shouldn't just be accepted because it's change, not all change is good.
Devaluing of games is a real thing. With more and more people getting used to getting all the games they'd ever want for 1$ a month, regular "pay to actually own" game sales will no doubt go down. We already see it now with people going "I'll wait until it's on game pass".

The problem is most people can't be arsed to think about potential pitfalls until they are actually in them. All they see is "wow, thousands of games for 1$ a month, yeah!". Fast forward a couple of years and the same people will be saying "why are all games a live service now?!"

Personally I've never enjoyed subscribing or renting stuff, I want to own it so I can use it at my own time and not be beholden to some outside force as to how and when I use my stuff.

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Change is coming no matter what. We used to have escalator operators, and automation took them off the job. We used to have travel agents making a cut off every plane ticket, and the internet in conjunction with modern ticketing systems has decimated their ranks. You had to get a film roll to capture those moments on picture; get film, tape or a record if you wanted to consume music or movies. We are in an age where tech makes sense for businesses to have a subscription model..........people subscribe to play online but will a draw a line when it comes to games?

Your ability to own games is not going anywhere because even Microsoft wants to double dip. As for other developers, you adapt or perish, this is what all business is about.

 

[oni-link]

I basically think Game Pass will raise its price in a couple years and just put out some PR about how in order to keep or improve quality of games that come to Game Pass, they will need to raise the monthly price by whatever amount.

The sustainability of Game Pass is in getting millions hooked enough to see a value and then finding out the maximum they are willing to pay for that value.

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They could raise the price, but I think it's more likely they'll say "after X date new titles will only join Gamepass after 6 months - 1 year"

That way the base price stays the same, and they get all that $60 day 1 money back from people with FOMO, while the overall package still remains a great deal and a enticing way to get into the Xbox ecosystem

 

[ElBoxy]

Anyone who feigns genuine 'concern' for the profits and sustainability of a service for a multinational corporation is taking part in the most thinly veiled console warring ever.

If it ends up not being worth the money for them, they change or stop the service. The consumer loses out on nothing. It's a complete non-issue.

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Speak for yourself.

 

[Knight613]

They could raise the price, but I think it's more likely they'll say "after X date new titles will only join Gamepass after 6 months - 1 year"

That way the base price stays the same, and they get all that $60 day 1 money back from people with FOMO, while the overall package still remains a great deal and a enticing way to get into the Xbox ecosystem

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For their own first party stuff? I kind of doubt it. I could maybe see third party titles not staying on Game Pass as long though.

 

[oni-link]

Titles already leave Game Pass after a while.

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I know, I meant first party titles

If they give their first party titles a 6 month window of not being on Gamepass before they are added, then they'll still get the day 1 rush of 60 dollar purchases, while everyone on the fence or with other stuff to play can wait 6 months then play it as part of the sub

Do first party games ever leave Gamepass?

 

[christocolus]

Acceptance of the fact that ecosystems are more important than plastic boxes. Game Pass will eventually reach 50 or even 100 million subscribers even though not nearly as many XSX will have been sold at that time.
"Concerned" people seem to be recognizing that Game Pass might indeed be a winner. They don't want MS to win though, and that's why they are losing their minds.

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Well said. It's all about GP now. I expect a lot more investments from MS into XGS including acquisitions. People have no idea how big GP is about to become.

I'm also glad we have MS behind it, they are most likely the only ones who would even risk offering a service like GP. Good to see it taking off.

Just Imagine having all these games day one on GP along with major AAA 3Ps appearing on the service.. It is also how Xbox gets more Japanese devs on board.

Halo Infinite
Fable
Avowed
Sod3
Forza M
Forza H
Hellblade 2... etc

 

[Santar]

Change is coming no matter what. We used to have escalator operators, and automation took them off the job. We used to have travel agents making a cut off every plane ticket, and the internet in conjunction with modern ticketing systems has decimated their ranks. You had to get a film roll to capture those moments on picture; get film, tape or a record if you wanted to consume music or movies. We are in an age where tech makes sense for businesses to have a subscription model..........people subscribe to play online but will a draw a line when it comes to games?

Your ability to own games is not going anywhere because even Microsoft wants to double dip. As for other developers, you adapt or perish, this is what all business is about.

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Things change, we all know that. That does not mean we shouldn't push back against things that are not changing for the better.
Take the xbox one always online fiasco or the Battlefront 2 loot box debacle. That was change that people didn't want and rightfully pushed back against. Should we have just put our hands up and accepted those changes?
As for the bolded part that may be true for now, but who knows in the future?

 

[Shark]

Speak for yourself.

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Nice reply. Mind sharing what concern or worry I should have about 'sustainability' as someone who pays for Game Pass? I'm clearly failing to see it.

 

[Dizastah]

People are rightfully concerned that GamePass will impact how MS will design first party games.

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I agree.

 

[gremlinz1982]

Things change, we all know that. That does not mean we shouldn't push back against things that are not changing for the better.
Take the xbox one always online fiasco or the Battlefront 2 loot box debacle. That was change that people didn't want and rightfully pushed back against. Should we have just put our hands up and accepted those changes?
As for the bolded part that may be true for now, but who knows in the future?

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Tech is getting to a place where you need not sell expensive hardware so that people can play games. Tech is getting to a place where people who may have the tech needed to play games, but may not have the space on mobile/tablet to install an entire game can simply stream it if 5G speeds stack up well enough.

It is not a negative to try and get as many people involved in gaming at a lower price. Tech has a way of bringing the cost of entry down across all productive segments, yet in gaming you will see people arguing against it. I do not get it. It was not long ago that people were arguing against digital distribution of games, and today it is becoming more common place. Sure, it cuts a middle man, but where has this not happened across different market segments?

Finally, companies have it in their best interest to not close revenue stream. They are not going to give up billions in sales revenue if they can marry that to streaming, an this is what is happening today.

 

[Taffy Lewis]

Considering both Spotify and Netflix are burning cash, and Apple has just reformed their Apple Arcade subscription service it's certainly worth discussing whether these services will be long-term sustainable at current pricing levels and whether that model will ever work for high-end quality video games.

 

[ElBoxy]

Nice reply. Mind sharing what concern or worry I should have about 'sustainability' as someone who pays for Game Pass? I'm clearly failing to see it.

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I just like the service and would be very upset if it were to go away. That would be very concerning warning sign for Xbox and it's leadership as it's suppose to play a big part for xCloud.

 

[christocolus]

Also, the big threat for Microsoft is around publishers starting their own services.

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That is why they will keep expanding current dev teams, building new studios and acquiring more devs... Just like Netflix learned to after studios started creating competitive services and pulling content from them.. I've been saying this, I expect MS to go full on into acquisition mode also we will start seeing them cutting ridiculous deals with publishers for GP offerings. It's going to be interesting watching them.

 

[ShinUltramanJ]

Do you think they would continue to double, triple and quadruple down on it if it wasn't profitable?

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If they were determined to make it work, yes.

 

[Dyle]

My concern isn't about games on gamepass but those who can't make it onto the service. We've seen the industry begin to raise the barriers to entry again as the market becomes more and more saturated with content. Indie developers more or less have to find a niche that's large enough for an audience or partner with a large publisher if they want to succeed. Simply making a good title isn't good enough anymore and it will only get worse as subscription services reduce the selling power of any individual title.

 

[Typhoon20]

Gamepass can be profitable.
But you need many QUALITY games, 1st party games even more so. QUALITY. The type of game a casual looks at and goes ''I HAVE TO PLAY THAT''. Looking at how they're handling Halo Infinite, their most important IP, I have little faith that Gamepass will truly take off like Netflix. You need the must have games. A lot of them. I don't mind the GAAS choice, but it needs to be a GOTY type of game for engagement to massively increase and commit long term. A lot of the profitable GAAS games are free to play. Quality first, then money second. But MS just doesn't get that and just wants the money first so they rush all these 1st party stuff. It's become a recurring theme for them.

 

[Betamaxbandit]

Yes you know all my tastes based on my avatar that is there just because I find Sackboy cute in Assassin's Creed outfit. Guess who owns Halo MCC, Gears games, Sunset Overdrive for example? Guess who is big fan of Ori games? Guess who was waiting for new Fable and hoped that it will be Single Player action RPG? Yes that is me, I like a lot of MS franchises.

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Look, you youself said you were a PC player so that combined with the avatar I (wrongly) assumed you perhaps were not invested in any way shape or form. So for that, I apologise

But you really havent answered the question, (especially the one on sustainability which this thread was about) Im guessing now based on the above that its possibly around an assumption that they wont release games like that again? The reveal kind of confirms that is not the case. We have a new fable, a AAA obsidian RPG, ORI update (for free) Halo...etc and we STILL havent seen everything.

There has been nothing but positives for gamers and developers at this juncture. I personally am playing games I would never have thought of, developers are seeing higher engament, growth and sales, MS are still releasing their big franchises and now IP so forgive me if I dont get on the "concern" train with the rest of era.

 

[Shark]

I just like the service and would be very upset if it were to go away. That would be very concerning warning sign for Xbox and it's leadership as it's suppose to play a big part for xCloud.

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That's completely reasonable but not what I was commenting on.

 

[PianoBlack]

It comes down to maximizing the lifetime value of that subscriber. How do you do that? Perhaps by designing games with more social features since friends pressure other friends into spending money. Or maybe you hide features/lore/gameplay behind a "season" and only give access to the snowy portion of the Halo Infinite ring during season 7, stringing folks along and continuing a subscription for far longer than they would otherwise. Maybe your game is incomplete at launch and you string them along for months until you fix it properly, all the while keeping them in the ecosystem. Instead of providing a great, epic, complete experience near launch, you deliver a bunch of small updates and force folks to again remain in the ecosystem for no other purpose than $$ while watering down the entire experience.

It very much pushes the state of the business. I'm not sure it pushes the state of the art (technically or artistically).

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I don't agree. This type of thinking comes from the current model of "how do we keep the user hooked on our game?" But the question for MS is how to keep someone hooked on their service, and that's actually really easy. You just need to have one of the other 300 games in the service appeal to them when they finish their current one.

So when people say "why would you give away a big single player game???".... Well, because in addition to the fans who will play it immediately, millions of other people will put it in their queue and see the service as valuable.

 

[Armadilo]

People are rightfully concerned that GamePass will impact how MS will design first party games.

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That's the only reason I even care about having a discussion on this, I think we lose in quality in the end

 

[Seesaw15]

People are rightfully concerned that GamePass will impact how MS will design first party games.

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It'll be interesting to see the changes that the Netflix/Spotify of games will have on design over time.

 

[Ivanovic]

Hope Sony/Nintendo never ever goes down this path. I wouldn't mind them putting their first party games on PSNow perhaps a year after release, but like others have said if this takes off, games will be designed with this model in mind, and they're not the kind of games I would want.

 

[nanskee]

Honestly, the only reason why I'm not currently subscribed to gamepass is because I play like 20 hours of video games a month nowadays.

If I was putting in more hours I would subscribe

It all depends on the amount of subscriptions, I think currently they don't have enough and as such are probably losing money, but there's a break even number that I'm sure they'll hit soon. The biggest problem with their presentation was that they didn't really give us a reason why we should buy their new Xbox, they just have us reasons why we should subscribe.

Additionally, the crazy thing is that the PC gamepass is cheaper than the Xbox gamepass, but I'm guessing that's just to draw PC gamers into the platform

 

[dex3108]

Look, you youself said you were a PC player so that combined with the avatar I (wrongly) assumed you perhaps were not invested in any way shape or form. So for that, I apologise

But you really havent answered the question, (especially the one on sustainability which this thread was about) Im guessing now based on the above that its possibly around an assumption that they wont release games like that again? The reveal kind of confirms that is not the case. We have a new fable, a AAA obsidian RPG, ORI update (for free) Halo...etc and we STILL havent seen everything.

There has been nothing but positives for gamers and developers at this juncture. I personally am playing games I would never have thought of, developers are seeing higher engament, growth and sales, MS are still releasing their big franchises and now IP so forgive me if I dont get on the "concern" train with the rest of era.

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We already can see some of those changes. Halo became platform that will last for 10 years, Forza changed too even before Series X, Fable is apparently MMO Lite game not SP RPG. Sea of Thieves is another example and so on. And my first response was there because most people don't care about sustainability, but they care about changes that subscription service will bring.

 

[Armadilo]

I just thought about how it only works right now because you still have people paying full price for those exclusive games, those gamers are kinda balancing it out I would imagine,

but when they eventually start shrinking and game pass subscribers increase, that's when you'll see the difference