538: Republicans Won Almost Every Election Where Redistricting Was At Stake

Poetic Injustice · Nov 19, 2020

Joe Biden may have won the White House, but down-ballot races were much better for Republicans. In fact, the GOP's victories in state-level elections could pay dividends long after Biden leaves office, thanks to their influence over next year's redistricting process.

Every 10 years, after the census, congressional and state legislature districts are redrawn to account for population changes. This gives whoever is drawing the maps the power to maximize the number of districts that favor their party — a tactic known as gerrymandering. And as we wrote last month, the 2020 election represented the last chance for voters to weigh in on who would draw those maps. Both parties went into the election with a chance to draw more congressional districts than the other, but the end result was just about the best-case scenario for Republicans. As the map below shows, Republicans are set to control the redistricting of 188 congressional seats — or 43 percent of the entire House of Representatives. By contrast, Democrats will control the redistricting of, at most, 73 seats, or 17 percent.

How did Republicans pull that off? By winning almost every 2020 election in which control of redistricting was at stake:

The GOP kept control of the redistricting process in Texas by holding the state House. Given that Election Data Services estimates Texas will have 39 congressional seats for the next decade, this was arguably Republicans' single biggest win of the 2020 election.

Republicans successfully defended the Pennsylvania legislature from a Democratic takeover, although they'll still need to share redistricting power over its projected 17 congressional districts, as Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf has veto power.

Republicans held the majority in both chambers of the North Carolina legislature, which will enable them to draw an expected 14 congressional districts all by themselves.

Amendment 1 passed in Virginia, taking the power to draw the state's 11 congressional districts out of the hands of the all-Democratic state government and investing it in a bipartisan commission made up of a mix of citizens and legislators.

In Missouri (home to eight congressional districts), Gov. Mike Parson was elected to a second term, keeping redistricting control in Republican hands.

In an upset, Republicans managed to keep their majority in the Minnesota state Senate, thus ensuring Democrats wouldn't have the unfettered ability to draw the state's projected seven congressional districts. The parties will share redistricting responsibilities there.

The GOP kept control of the state House in Iowa, with its four congressional districts.

Republicans maintained their supermajorities in the Kansas Legislature, enabling them to pass a new congressional map (worth four districts) over Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly's veto.

Finally, Republicans surprisingly flipped both the state Senate and state House in New Hampshire (worth two congressional districts), seizing full control of both the state government and the redistricting process.

Republicans Won Almost Every Election Where Redistricting Was At Stake

Joe Biden may have won the White House, but down-ballot races were much better for Republicans. In fact, the GOP’s victories in state-level elections could pay …

fivethirtyeight.com

electroshockwave · Nov 19, 2020

Republicans play to win.

geardo · Nov 19, 2020

I might be mistaken but I don't recall any democrats even mentioning this during the campaign.

Leandras · Nov 19, 2020

Good thing Trump is out now and the republicans will go back to being the great protectors of democracy they were in the past. /s

StraySheep · Nov 19, 2020

Would there be any way that Biden, or god willing a democratic majority in the senate, could pass legislation limiting the state's ability to do this shit?

Stone Cold · Nov 19, 2020

StraySheep said:
Would there be any way that Biden, or god willing a democratic majority in the senate, could pass legislation limiting the state's ability to do this shit?

It would probably take the Supreme Court to legally enforce an anti-jerrymandering law on the state level

Erpy · Nov 19, 2020

StraySheep said:
Would there be any way that Biden, or god willing a democratic majority in the senate, could pass legislation limiting the state's ability to do this shit?

I believe the new voting rights act was meant to help limit this stuff, but it won't pass with Mitch in charge of the Senate. And even if Democrats get lucky in Georgia and nag two seats, there's still the risk that Republicans appeal and the Roberts Court strikes it down, stating that the feds can't impose on the states like this and if inhabitants of the states are unhappy with their politicians' vote suppressing tactics, they should simply vote those politicians out. Yes, John Roberts thinks like that.

Malleymal · Nov 19, 2020

This was a great election to mess with those down ballot races. Everyone was focused on Trump .

Box · Nov 19, 2020

Fuck me it's like Dice trying to balance Battlefield.

John Dunbar · Nov 19, 2020

i can't imagine very many people vote to "weigh in on" gerrymandering.

Skiptastic · Nov 19, 2020

geardo said:
I might be mistaken but I don't recall any democrats even mentioning this during the campaign.

A lot was made when focusing on Texas about flipping the state house. But on the national scale, no, because it's not really a motivating factor...at least not for Democrats, apparently...

gozu · Nov 19, 2020

electroshockwave said:
Republicans play to win.

They don't mind killing hostages and they don't mind poor people dying as collateral damage.

We can't use those tactics for ethical reasons. Bad guys have an advantage.

dabig2 · Nov 19, 2020

This was why a lot of us were worried on election night and after:

Last night was an utter catastrophe for stopping GOP gerrymandering next year. GOP is poised to draw 4-5 times as many congressional districts as Dems, likely closer to the latter number. That's similar to the GOP's 5:1 advantage after 2010. AZ, MI, PA legislatures still uncalled

/ With GOP's radical 6-3 Supreme Court majority, the court could strike down ballot initiatives, state supreme court rulings, & possibly even governor vetoes that block GOP gerrymanders at its most extreme. This would cement GOP minority rule across the country. 2022 may be awful

I hate to be dismal, but we must realize that democracy just suffered a catastrophe. GOP minority rule legislatures are further entrenching minority rule with the support of SCOTUS. We may eventually have no option left but Chile-style mass protests. I hope it won't come to that

All of this is bad. It's why I don't want the Dems here to make friends with the Repubs or keep the pressure off, our democracy is hanging in the balance and the Repubs aren't just suddenly going to get better. Cause Trump was merely a symptom of a problem that began long before him.

StraySheep said:
Would there be any way that Biden, or god willing a democratic majority in the senate, could pass legislation limiting the state's ability to do this shit?

Actually yeah, there is legislation they can do. The only question (the one after if they can win senate majority) is if they have the will and stomach to pass what needs to be done. And part of such a package would be expanding all of the courts.

BassForever · Nov 19, 2020

Man it's amazing how this "rigged/stolen" election is bad for Democrats largely across the board other then at the presidency. Getting rid of Trump WAS that important, but it's still just a giant bandage over the deeper problems we have.

Mathieran · Nov 19, 2020

I can't believe the drawing is districts is a partisan process. Same with Supreme Court. Shows how insane our country is.

fontguy · Nov 19, 2020

StraySheep said:
Would there be any way that Biden, or god willing a democratic majority in the senate, could pass legislation limiting the state's ability to do this shit?

Not without the Supreme Court. So to remedy this, we need to:

1. Win both GA senate races
2. Pack the Supreme Court (with justices that would be willing to overturn pretty recent previous rulings)
3. Successfully bring a case before them and actually get a favorable ruling

This is hypotheticals on top of hypotheticals. It's almost definitely not happening. This election really was a disaster.

PeakPointMatrix · Nov 19, 2020

I hope to god we get those two Senate seats. There has to be some hope for once.

gozu · Nov 19, 2020

fontguy said:
Not without the Supreme Court. So to remedy this, we need to:

1. Win both GA senate races
2. Pack the Supreme Court (with justices that would be willing to overturn pretty recent previous rulings)
3. Successfully bring a case before them and actually get a favorable ruling

This is hypotheticals on top of hypotheticals. It's almost definitely not happening. This election really was a disaster.

Yes it was. I don't know how we come back from this. I hate to sound defeatist but it's the truth.

LProtagonist · Nov 19, 2020

Gerrymandering needs to be made illegal.

Mar Tuuk · Nov 19, 2020

With the exception of Biden this election was not good for Democrats

Relix · Nov 19, 2020

The GOP won and is slowly taking over. The Dems are infighting and like headless chicken. Good times coming.

Dennis8K · Nov 19, 2020

A lot of people just wanted Trump gone but can't actually stand the Democratic party.

Thisisme · Nov 19, 2020

It's sad. Keep fighting. That's all you can do.

Temascos · Nov 19, 2020

Man your system is so damn fucked over by the GOP, and people didn't turn out for this?! That leads me to think that the 79 million votes Biden got was a fluke, but you can bet your ass every 70+ million for Trump will turn up for every single election, no matter how insignificant it is.

It's sad, all that turnout mobilised and the the winning party even managed to lose even more.

RoKKeR · Nov 19, 2020

Mathieran said:
I can't believe the drawing is districts is a partisan process. Same with Supreme Court. Shows how insane our country is.

Yep, it's completely ridiculous.

VariantX · Nov 19, 2020

Mathieran said:
I can't believe the drawing is districts is a partisan process. Same with Supreme Court. Shows how insane our country is.

Oh it's all gonna be partisan if they get their way.

darkwing · Nov 19, 2020

is gerrymandering unique to American politics? because i can't imagine doing it here, people would protest

Erpy · Nov 19, 2020

Lots of people have heard about gerrymandering, but it's just a buzzword to them. I've lost count of the number of times I saw takes on this site saying stuff like "Gerrymandering will make sure Trump wins even if he gets less votes", which is not how gerrymandering works.

I think one of the Democrats' challenges is that a lot of more casual voters don't really understand just how gameable the political system is. That included Democrats themselves back in 2010, when Republicans pulled off Project Redmap and created the foundation upon which this second victory was built.

Lord Fanny · Nov 19, 2020

Yeah, I think it's things like this why the 2020 election, in the grand and long term scheme of things, wasn't hugely important. In the end it was just continuing the trend of giving the GOP minority rule that's been happening slowly since at least 2010. A battle was won, but the war is basically done and over until things are completely uprooted one way or another.

darkwing said:
is gerrymandering unique to American politics? because i can't imagine doing it here, people would protest

It's pretty unique, I think, but I don't know enough about how other countries do districting to say for sure. Most Americans don't really know what gerrymandering is or at least how it's done. But even if they did, it wouldn't really matter. As we've seen this year, protesting in America is largely worthless. The GOP have already shown all they have to do in hunker down and power through and they will still be safe, so even if people protested it, they'd just shrug it off and go about doing whatever they want.

GoldenEye 007 · Nov 19, 2020

geardo said:
I might be mistaken but I don't recall any democrats even mentioning this during the campaign.

Dem voters wouldn't care anyway. They didn't even care about RBG dying in the end with their performance down ballot.

sapien85 · Nov 19, 2020

Yeah this was one of the things that was supposed to change with the blue wave in 2020 that didn't happen. The maps are gonna look disgusting because Republicans are even more unpopular in cities and are worse off than they used to be in the suburbs. The Democrats now have to hope that they can get people to vote for propositions that make it so independent or bipartisan commissions draw the maps like Michigan now which is good news. Unfortunately for Democrats CA and NY both do it this way so they can't draw the map to make up for lost seats in other states from redistricting.

It does say New York could end up with a Democratic supermajority but it's still drawn by a bipartisan commission so Republicans will have some say. However the article shows this is better than what happened after the 2010 election when Republicans controlled districting for 55 percent of seats versus 10 percent by Democrats. Now it's 43 to 17 and now 38 percent is by independent or bipartisan districting which was 33 percent before.

Kobra_Zer0 · Nov 19, 2020

Make no mistake, democrats are fucked in 2022 , they will 100% lose the house. Historically this always tends to happen whenever a party controls the presidency but with redistricting in play that fate is probably sealed.

Watchtower · Nov 19, 2020

Erpy said:
Lots of people have heard about gerrymandering, but it's just a buzzword to them. I've lost count of the number of times I saw takes on this site saying stuff like "Gerrymandering will make sure Trump wins even if he gets less votes", which is not how gerrymandering works.

I think one of the Democrats' challenges is that a lot of more casual voters don't really understand just how gameable the political system is. That included Democrats themselves back in 2010, when Republicans pulled off Project Redmap and created the foundation upon which this second victory was built.

I'd further take the bolded by saying that this is an issue across the voting spectrum but it's a significantly lesser issue for Republicans because right-wing voters are such a reliable voting bloc that they can be made to march for ideas completely alien to them by plucking at their fears and hates. Left-wing voters by their nature of not being so basic require significantly more education to get behind or against plays like this, and as we've seen with the SCOTUS that education unfortunately seems to click just at the cusp of a point of no return.

Deleted member 2533 · Nov 19, 2020

Amendment 1 passed in Virginia, taking the power to draw the state's 11 congressional districts out of the hands of the all-Democratic state government and investing it in a bipartisan commission made up of a mix of citizens and legislators.

Wait, isn't that a win for Democrats? I thought the whole point was to kill gerrymandering so that Republicans couldn't use it when power flips, not to keep gerrymandering and just use it to fix things for Democrats.

Holden · Nov 19, 2020

darkwing said:
is gerrymandering unique to American politics? because i can't imagine doing it here, people would protest

Gerrymandering - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

There are good examples of redistricting and bad ones.
Bad ones are usually called gerrymandering
Good ones exist, look at the Illinois 4th and 7th district, two different communities, one mainly Hispanic the other Black. With bad redistricting, we could end up with either 2 congresspersons from one community instead of fairly having one of each.

But making it a good districting makes it look weird:

And it is also why it makes it very difficult to combat gerrymandering, on one hand it can help communities have a voice in Congress and on the other it can completely destroy that opportunity

Zyrokai · Nov 19, 2020

Great, a terrific way for me to start my day out with gloom and doom.

Can someone help me not feel despondent even a little bit? Ugh....

KG · Nov 19, 2020

Cheat to win.

Lord Fanny · Nov 19, 2020

Dr.Acula said:
Wait, isn't that a win for Democrats? I thought the whole point was to kill gerrymandering so that Republicans couldn't use it when power flips, not to keep gerrymandering and just use it to fix things for Democrats.

That isn't killing anything, though, is the point. It's just letting the GOP have more say in the process. I'll give you one guess about how that's going to end up going in the end.

Zelas · Nov 19, 2020

Yeah but if Biden just makes the right transition team choices Republicans will lose all their power.

Dr.Acula said:
Wait, isn't that a win for Democrats? I thought the whole point was to kill gerrymandering so that Republicans couldn't use it when power flips, not to keep gerrymandering and just use it to fix things for Democrats.

It's a small win. A fully independent commission would be preferable than having any republican legislators involved.

FliX · Nov 19, 2020

darkwing said:
is gerrymandering unique to American politics? because i can't imagine doing it here, people would protest

It's basically an in-built feature and problem with any system based on winner takes all/first past the post (FPTP).

Pasha · Nov 19, 2020

But I thought Biden was supposed to help in the down ballot races, what happened to that?

bionic77 · Nov 19, 2020

I think just as important as getting rid of Trump is moving the GOP towards the middle.

Trump was the worst thing that could happen to the GOP and America.

I really doubt Biden can fix that by himself in 4 years. Not sure how the fuck we are going to get any reform...

Mr. Keith · Nov 19, 2020

I don't think I like the premise of the article very much.

I know we all dream of a purple Texas but Dems losing there isn't some huge blow. Same with places like Iowa and Kansas. Almost half of the states listed there are deep red and had no chance of flipping.

The consequences do suck but we honestly had no way to stop it in a lot of cases. They also put in states having to share responsibility with Republicans as a lose for Democrats which I find amusing.

Lord Fanny · Nov 19, 2020

Pasha said:
But I thought Biden was supposed to help in the down ballot races, what happened to that?

Was a flop big time.

bionic77 said:
I think just as important as getting rid of Trump is moving the GOP towards the middle.

Trump was the worst thing that could happen to the GOP and America.

I really doubt Biden can fix that by himself in 4 years. Not sure how the fuck we are going to get any reform...

The GOP have been trending this way since way before Trump. Trump was just a natural part of the course that the GOP has been on since at least Bush II. As will the next fascist that is elected from the party. The party is simply an authoritarian party now that is using all the tools it can to make sure it can never lose power. Trump didn't 'happen' to the GOP.

Erpy · Nov 19, 2020

Holden said:
Gerrymandering - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

There are good examples of redistricting and bad ones.
Bad ones are usually called gerrymandering
Good ones exist, look at the Illinois 4th and 7th district, two different communities, one mainly Hispanic the other Black. With bad redistricting, we could end up with either 2 congresspersons from one community instead of fairly having one of each.

But making it a good districting makes it look weird:

And it is also why it makes it very difficult to combat gerrymandering, on one hand it can help communities have a voice in Congress and on the other it can completely destroy that opportunity

FliX said:
It's basically an in-built feature and problem with any system based on winner takes all/first past the post (FPTP).

The only true problem is that the redistricting is put in the hands of politicians who have a stake in the game, which is similar to allowing a secretary of state run in a governors race he himself oversees in his current position. It creates an incentive to twist the process into a partisan rig-job, rather than something meant to ensure voters are represented properly.

In a healthy system, even one based on first-past-the-post, redistricting powers can be put in the hands of independent committees who are like the bureaucrats at the various government agencies. (before Trump started corrupting them)

bionic77 said:
I think just as important as getting rid of Trump is moving the GOP towards the middle.

Trump was the worst thing that could happen to the GOP and America.

I really doubt Biden can fix that by himself in 4 years. Not sure how the fuck we are going to get any reform...

The only way for the GOP to move to the middle would be to unrig the system. If a politician is forced to run in a competitive race, they're forced to either establish a strong personal rapport with the voters (like Joe Manchin in WV) which takes years to build up or they're forced to try and keep their coalition as broad as possible which means they'll be forced to pander to voters in the center, or at least those outside their typical base.

If, on the other hand, a politician is in a "safe" race, the only thing they have to fear is being primaried from the fringe, so they have no incentive to pander to anyone outside of the loudest of the party base. Once they win the primary, the tilt of the system will protect them from accountability to the electorate at large.

As long as the current system and partisan tilt remains in place, the current incentive structure for Republikans remains in place, which means their party's ideological structure remains in place.

skeptem · Nov 19, 2020

bionic77 said:
I think just as important as getting rid of Trump is moving the GOP towards the middle.

Trump was the worst thing that could happen to the GOP and America.

I really doubt Biden can fix that by himself in 4 years. Not sure how the fuck we are going to get any reform...

We've had people like Nixon, Reagan, Newt, pushing the party in this direction for decades. The slow trickle of "they are coming for your way of life" was just turned into a fire hose during Trump.

Deleted member 4353 · Nov 19, 2020

Lord Fanny said:
Was a flop big time.

The GOP have been trending this way since way before Trump. Trump was just a natural part of the course that the GOP has been on since at least Bush II. As will the next fascist that is elected from the party. The party is simply an authoritarian party now that is using all the tools it can to make sure it can never lose power. Trump didn't 'happen' to the GOP.

I'm sure Sanders would have done a muuuuuch better job. Just like he did during the primaries....

Thordinson · Nov 19, 2020

Mr. Keith said:
I know we all dream of a purple Texas but Dems losing there isn't some huge blow. Same with places like Iowa and Kansas. Almost half of the states listed there are deep red and had no chance of flipping.

It was a pretty big blow in my district. The Dem lost by about 1,000 votes in 2018, she lost by 12,000 votes. It seemed like there would be a good chance here. I'm not sure exactly what happened.

dabig2 · Nov 19, 2020

Lord Fanny said:
The GOP have been trending this way since way before Trump. Trump was just a natural part of the course that the GOP has been on since at least Bush II. As will the next fascist that is elected from the party. The party is simply an authoritarian party now that is using all the tools it can to make sure it can never lose power. Trump didn't 'happen' to the GOP.

This. From a 538 article a couple years ago:

These are horrific trends. And hell, can't even pin it all on Obama and black man hate backlash by the Repubs

But the Democrats' diminished power can't be pinned entirely — or even mostly — on Obama. The number of congressional seats lost during his tenure is high but in line with what other two-term presidents have experienced. Where the party has ceded an extraordinary degree of its power is in state legislatures and governor's mansions. If the blame for Democrats' ebbing power fell squarely at Obama's feet, the party's losses in federal offices would likely be much more acute, matching the dramatic changes at the state level.

It matters, too, how the Democrats' losses during Obama's tenure are counted. Most analyses compare the number of seats Democrats held after the 2008 elections to those they held after 2016. But Obama's 2008 election saw a surge of down-ballot Democratic wins, which makes the slide look that much more precipitous. If you compare the number of Democratic seats held after the 2006 midterms, prior to Obama's election, with the number held after 2016, when he was off the ticket — as the Atlantic's Ronald Brownstein has suggested — the loss of state-level seats is closer to the norm.

Dems need to stem this tide of conservative minority rule, and pretending that we can just reform all of this over generations is why we're in the hole that we're in. I fully blame the Democratic party strategy in the late 80s to appeal to the Reagan Democrats when they should've solidified their recognition as the party of labor.

This is more than 30 years in the making and it's the young who will mostly suffer from the missteps and myopia of their elders, most of whom are still attached to power (looking at you Pelosi, Clyburn, Schumer, Hoyer, and all the others).

captive · Nov 19, 2020

electroshockwave said:
Republicans play to win.

its almost like one side took the pandemic seriously and the other side doesnt care who they kill to go door to door to talk to people.

and unfortunately people enjoy being lied to their face instead of doing a modicum of research.

538: Republicans Won Almost Every Election Where Redistricting Was At Stake

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