The commont from the scientific community was literally "the data is worthless". The calculations itself are good, but anything with that confidence interval is lol.Yes but as soon as that was published the scientific commuty response was that is simply not how efficacy is judged. It is simply wrong to state even at the time, with the more limited data, that there would be no efficacy.
The newspaper probably got teh data from politicans, heavily confirmed that % (because well, it is dafaq low), and published it. Then they were proved right, but the data was shit and shouldnt have been published at all. But the newspaper did its dues on investigation (as they were proven right on the %) but should have asked for more info regarding how that happened (as that would have told them it was because the data was worthless, but probably the politicians that leaked it to them are not statisticians)
It can still happen tho, as some medication can have more (or less) effect on people with weaker autoimmune systems (hence why you also test vaccines specifically for children too). Which is why you do phase 3 trials that target different age groups to actually draw significant data regarding that.I'm saying that it was a very naive reading of the table. At the time it was very much agreed that it is not how efficacy would work, it wouldn't just drop off of a cliff.