2022 Update: Do You Think Movie Theatres Are Here To Stay?

[Star-Lord]

Hello all,
It's been a crazy few years with Covid and it's been a few months of movie theatres being open and I have to ask the question. Do you think movie theatres are here for the long run? Before when covid was happening everybody was watching new releases on demand or movies were postponed. Many individuals said they didn't want to return to theatres after the option of watching it in the comfort of their homes. It's been a rough start with several movies not doing great at the box office such as tenent or several marvel movies (eternals, Shang-chi) while other movies have strived in recent times (spider man, the Batman, sonic 2)
Now do you see movie theatres around in the foreseeable future or do you think a decline will occur in the next ten years or so?

 

[Mancha]

Yes for the long haul, but the movie experience will keep getting more expensive and more blockbuster oriented.

 

[JJH]

Absolutely for blockbusters. It's going to get more expensive and more luxurious for these experiences.

 

[Tavernade]

I think they'll stay, even if only for blockbusters. If Spidey and Batman can make what they did during a pandemic, I think they're safe for the foreseeable future. At least insofar as franchise fare goes.

 

[Desma]

Yeah. I only really enjoy movies on theaters.

Too many distractions when I'm home

 

[Delicious Waffles]

If theaters are going to get theater only releases, hard to see them disappear. If the theater only releases dry up for a more on demand focused experience, theaters are done for.

 

[Rosebud]

They are staying, but only for franchises and big budget/mainstream stuff.

 

[inner-G]

I already thought they were done pre-pandemic, I think this recent bump could be akin to a 'dead cat bounce' for a stock.

Depending on how many films kept up production during covid, there could also be a bit of a dry spell for cinema content.

 

[Helix]

I really hope it does stay for the long haul, I know it's quite a health concern but there is nothing quite as memorable as going to a theater and watching a highly anticipated film alongside others who feel the same way.

its a magical experience in its own right!

 

[Bane]

Depends on what you mean. As they mostly are now? No. But will some sort of theaters keep going ? Absolutely. They'll become more of an experience, with nicer amenities and higher costs to go with that. I do think we're approaching the twilight of the whole family going down to one to watch the newest flick though. It will be more of a smaller scale thing.

 

[Sectorseven]

They will exist for a while in some capacity, but I think what is happening is theaters are transitioning into more general amusement centers. So eventually there will be places with bars, bowling, in-door go kart racing and a couple movie screens.

 

[jph139]

There will always be places where you can pay to sit in a dark room and look up at a movie playing on a big screen. The economics of it will change, but theaters as a concept will always be there.

I think that the blockbuster field is going to narrow, and certain genres/demographics (say, children's/family movies) will shift to streaming as a default. It'll probably become less and less profitable to run a theater outside of urban centers that have the population to fill them. There will be smaller, more "arthouse" theaters that run foreign films and less mainstream pictures, but they're going to have to carve their own community niches and won't always be viable.

 

[Tace]

Yes, I think the theatrical experience isn't going anywhere. Streaming will obviously still be huge but it can't replicate the feeling of watching movies with others. Humans are social creatures so there will always be a market for that

 

[Zeliard]

Of course they are. You're not watching films with a large audience at home regardless of how good your set-up is. Going to the theaters is a communal experience that you share with a group of strangers on top of whoever you go with. To the extent that that can't be replicated with home viewing, movie theaters will always be big.

Whether or not the market has permanently changed for what is considered a viable big budget theater release is a different question, but even that isn't quite settled despite the sheer popularity and dominance of comic book movies over the past decade. And major ("summer") blockbusters have always been of a certain style anyway. People weren't exactly going to the theaters in droves to watch Children of Men.

 

[Sanctuary]

If by "the long haul" you mean maybe the next hundred years...possibly. Eventually they will be gone though due to home entertainment just being more convenient, or even better overall. Or, we will be too busy fighting for water to care about going to watch a film in a theater that price gouges every other consumable.

Of course they are. You're not watching films with a large audience at home regardless of how good your set-up is. Going to the theaters is a communal experience that you share with a group of strangers on top of whoever you go with. To the extent that that can't be replicated with home viewing, movie theaters will always be big.

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I love how theaters always seem to get romaticized like this, but this isn't indicative of the average experience. Unless you enjoy having to hear someone talking loudly non-stop through the entire film, or eating a twelve course meal of nachos and candy (in a plastic bag that they crinkle every thirty seconds for the entire run time) directly beside you, your seat being kicked, sticky floors, damaged screens, crying babies, someone's phone (or the light from them checking it constantly shooting into your eyes) etc.

Couple those issues with there not being a standard right now for screens and projectors and your actual audio/visual experience will wildly vary unless you go out of your way to go to the more expensive theaters that might even be two hours away.

 

[Soundscream]

You better hope they will still be around if you like big budget movies. If they lose that revenue stream from theaters budgets will plummet. And don't count on the fact that streamers are greenlighting large budget films now, they will tighten the purse strings once the landscape evens out and their not fighting to outspend each other for eyeballs (the new head of HBO/discovery already has said spending isn't the answer).

David Zaslav Pledges Cost Discipline After WarnerMedia Merger As Streaming ‘Spending Wars’ Intensify

Discovery CEO promises that the company is not in a race to win the "spending wars" when it closes its deal to acquire WarnerMedia

variety-com.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[Potterson]

As long as superhero blockbusters are being made, cinemas are here to stay.

 

[Meg Cherry]

If COVID didn't do it, nothing will.

The economics of modern moviemaking is hugely dependent on the revenue provided by exhibition. You can't profit off a movie the size of The Batman just off streaming revenue - and consumers gave a pretty strong signal that they don't want to pay $30 to watch new releases at home (especially when they can just pirate a perfect copy for free).

I think we're still in for some consolidation & change in the industry - but the notion of a public space for paid exhibition of filmed content is here to stay.

 

[Rosebud]

Yes, I think the theatrical experience isn't going anywhere. Streaming will obviously still be huge but it can't replicate the feeling of watching movies with others. Humans are social creatures so there will always be a market for that

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I think they will survive because it's the only choice for big movies, not because it's a communal experience.

 

[PeakPointMatrix]

Totally. Nothing reminded me of the joy and communal experience of experiencing big screen storytelling like the return to theaters. They energy of watching something like Sonic 2 with strangers just having a good time, the majesty of a movie like Everything Everywhere getting the fullest, richest viewing experience possible on a massive screen. I would be incredibly depressed to see theaters die out.

 

[LauraLaMer]

Yeah, as theme park attractions for movies like Spider-Man, Batman or Sonic.

 

[Adventureracing]

They will be around, I don't think there's anyway that changes. Will they be around in the same capacity as they are today? Maybe not but there will be cinemas of some kind.

 

[pillowtalk]

yes but only for as long as the industry can force it to stay. If I can work from home, I can watch from home.

 

[Zeliard]

If by "the long haul" you mean maybe the next hundred years...possibly. Eventually they will be gone though due to home entertainment just being more convenient, or even better overall. Or, we will be too busy fighting for water to care about going to watch a film in a theater that price gouges every other consumable.



I love how theaters always seem to get romaticized like this, but this isn't indicative of the average experience. Unless you enjoy having to hear someone talking loudly non-stop through the entire film, or eating a twelve course meal of nachos and candy (in a plastic bag that they crinkle every thirty seconds for the entire run time) directly beside you, your seat being kicked, sticky floors, damaged screens etc.

Click to shrink...

I mean, that hasn't really been my experience too much. Of course that occasionally happens but I guess for me all that stuff tends to drift into the background and becomes more ambient sound or white noise, when it isn't literally drowned out by the movie audio. And I'm always eating popcorn myself anyway (it just seems hideously wrong not to have a bag of popcorn at the movies) so maybe I'm part of the problem. ;)

If I'm watching a movie at the theaters I'm usually way too immersed in it to notice any of that nonsense, with the exception of someone opening up their bright phone, which again is pretty rare in my experience.

 

[Mivey]

Cinema ain't going anywhere. I do believe we will probably see a peak though in the next decade or so, and it will become somewhat more niche from then out. but as we have seen with other "old" tech, like radio, it never truly disappears. Millions of people still listening to radio on their cars.

 

[Deleted member 2802]

There are going to need to sell bags of popcorn for $30-40.

 

[BasilZero]

Movie theaters/cinema isnt going anywhere.

I just hope streaming movies will become more common or at least the wait will be shorter for release.

 

[skillzilla81]

I love how theaters always seem to get romaticized like this, but this isn't indicative of the average experience. Unless you enjoy having to hear someone talking loudly non-stop through the entire film, or eating a twelve course meal of nachos and candy (in a plastic bag that they crinkle every thirty seconds for the entire run time) directly beside you, your seat being kicked, sticky floors, damaged screens, crying babies, someone's phone (or the light from them checking it constantly shooting into your eyes) etc.

Couple those issues with there not being a standard right now for screens and projectors and your actual audio/visual experience will wildly vary unless you go out of your way to go to the more expensive theaters that might even be two hours away.

Click to shrink...

This is rarely my experience, and I see a lot of movies.

 

[Scullibundo]

Cameron coming to save movie theatres end of this year.

 

[Freezasaurus]

Of course they are. You're not watching films with a large audience at home regardless of how good your set-up is. Going to the theaters is a communal experience that you share with a group of strangers on top of whoever you go with. To the extent that that can't be replicated with home viewing, movie theaters will always be big.

Click to shrink...

Some people do not give a single shit about this lmao

Since the pandemic started, I just wait for streaming every single time. If anything, it made me realize how much disdain I had for actually going to the theater. It's kind of a crapshoot whether you'll get a considerate audience or a bunch of people acting the same as they would in their living room, and I don't really care for it.

That said... I believe theaters aren't going anywhere, of course not. Some people love that experience, and that's fine. But it did make studios take notice of the demand for streaming as well.

 

[Tobor]

I never thought theaters were going to disappear. Will they continue to change into a different experience? Yep.

The future is less total releases, and a smaller total number of screens, combined with more spectacle and higher ticket prices.

All the pandemic did was speed up what was already happening.

 

[Deimos]

If by "the long haul" you mean maybe the next hundred years...possibly. Eventually they will be gone though due to home entertainment just being more convenient, or even better overall. Or, we will be too busy fighting for water to care about going to watch a film in a theater that price gouges every other consumable.



I love how theaters always seem to get romaticized like this, but this isn't indicative of the average experience. Unless you enjoy having to hear someone talking loudly non-stop through the entire film, or eating a twelve course meal of nachos and candy (in a plastic bag that they crinkle every thirty seconds for the entire run time) directly beside you, your seat being kicked, sticky floors, damaged screens, crying babies, someone's phone (or the light from them checking it constantly shooting into your eyes) etc.

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A "communal" experience where the ideal is everyone quietly sitting in a dark room where you can't see or talk to each other. Or the other option where some asshole won't shut up.

In any scenario, the theater is a shit experience. Inviting some friends over is 1000x a better option.

If COVID didn't do it, nothing will.



The economics of modern moviemaking is hugely dependent on the revenue provided by exhibition. You can't profit off a movie the size of The Batman just off streaming revenue - and consumers gave a pretty strong signal that they don't want to pay $30 to watch new releases at home (especially when they can just pirate a perfect copy for free).



I think we're still in for some consolidation & change in the industry - but the notion of a public space for paid exhibition of filmed content is here to stay.

Click to shrink...

If piracy was a legitimate concern, Netflix would have failed a long time ago. People really overestimate its impact. But yeah, unfortunately your other point is right. People want exhibition more than they care about the movie itself.

 

[Sanctuary]

This is rarely my experience, and I see a lot of movies.

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Must be nice then, because it's my standard experience in PA. The only time it's not is when we go to either a late showing of a non blockbuster film, go to see a film that's been out a while during the day when practically no one will be in that auditorium, or drive to an even larger city that has the Limax screens. Otherwise, I get a much better experience both visually and aurally at home.

 

[Meg Cherry]

I love how theaters always seem to get romaticized like this, but this isn't indicative of the average experience. Unless you enjoy having to hear someone talking loudly non-stop through the entire film, or eating a twelve course meal of nachos and candy (in a plastic bag that they crinkle every thirty seconds for the entire run time) directly beside you, your seat being kicked, sticky floors, damaged screens, crying babies, someone's phone (or the light from them checking it constantly shooting into your eyes) etc.

Couple those issues with there not being a standard right now for screens and projectors and your actual audio/visual experience will wildly vary unless you go out of your way to go to the more expensive theaters that might even be two hours away.

Click to shrink...

Some people on Era love to insist this is the standard, and yet I've maybe encountered crowds this bad... twice, in my entire history of theater attendance? And I usually go 3-4 times a month. It's just not that common of an issue for most people.

 

[Tyaren]

Like theater, opera or music concerts, going to a movie theater will stay. It's not just about the movie, that you could of course just stream at home, but that entire movie theater experience. Going there on a date with someone and cuddling up in the dark, meeting other fans of a certain film franchise, reacting and seeing the crowd react to certain movie scenes, stuffing yourself with popcorn or doritos...
In the long run I expect a few big movie theaters per city staying open and smaller ones closing though, unless they find their own niche. Like focusing on independent, foreign language or art films.

 

[Sensei]

i expect plenty to close cuz of streaming convenience but i dont think theyll all be gone entirely

 

[Meg Cherry]

A "communal" experience where the ideal is everyone quietly sitting in a dark room where you can't see or talk to each other. Or the other option where some asshole won't shut up.

In any scenario, the theater is a shit experience. Inviting some friends over is 1000x a better option.

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Or you know, communal laughs, reactions, or even cheering for big fanboy events like Spiderman or Avengers.

Emotions are more powerful when experienced with a group of people. This is a fundamental truth of the human experience, something we've known since the literal dawn of storytelling.

 

[xxracerxx]

They are staying, but only for franchises and big budget/mainstream stuff.

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So goodbye A24 movies showing in theaters? I doubt that.

 

[Indelible]

I don't see theaters ever going away but there importance with strongly diminish over the next decade.

 

[Rosebud]

So goodbye A24 movies showing in theaters? I doubt that.

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Horror will always stay (like superheroes, children movies...), but other things I'm not sure

 

[shaneo632]

They're here to stay but they are never going entirely back to pre-pandemic levels of success. A small but significant fraction of the business has been lost forever with the rise of streaming + the pandemic making people a lot pickier about the films they deem "cinematic" enough to not just wait 17-45 days for streaming.

I don't see mid-budget movies ever having a proper recovery on a bigger level (outside of horror) and so it's going to be a lot more focused towards event-type films. I do wonder if some attempt might be made to really emphasise moviegoing more as an Experience, but I don't know how they would do that.

The last two years has massively eroded their cachet for a lot of people now. I know so many people who went to the cinema at least once a month pre-covid but now are just like "ehhh it'll be on streaming in a month I'll watch it at home." They'll only leave the house for safe sure things like MCU.

I would happily watch 90% of films at home, personally. Other people are annoying. I don't crave the "communal" part at all - I usually see movies in the morning on release day where it's dead. I would be fine just watching big stylistic movies like Dune and smaller arty stuff like Green Knight/Northman in cinemas and watching basically everything else at home.

 

[Lari]

Things will eventually change, because everything does. But not for the foreseeable future.
I like movie theaters.

 

[Meg Cherry]

If piracy was a legitimate concern, Netflix would have failed a long time ago. People really overestimate its impact. But yeah, unfortunately your other point is right. People want exhibition more than they care about the movie itself.

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As always, piracy is primarily motivated by convenience, with price a close follow up. Netflix hasn't really been impacted by piracy, because they have a very simple business model - one flat fee, access to a huge catalogue of movies. They got in early, everyone has a subscription (or at least a password) - no problem.

The challenge hit when everyone else got in on the streaming game, and also started testing out $20-$30 "premium" VOD rentals when theaters were shut down. When people have to sign up for another service, or pay a big chunk of money for the exact product that they could get illegally - that's where it becomes a problem. Black Widow notoriously lost a lot of revenue to piracy, because it was available day one, in HD, the same time it hit theaters and Disney+ "Premiere Access".

It's not an issue for theatrical exclusives, because nobody wants to watch a camrip in 2022.

 

[Ryuelli]

I think they'll exist for either big budget blockbusters or niche-art house stuff, but middle of the road films that aren't horror are going to go straight to streaming. I don't really see a place for something like, say, Grown Ups in a theater in 2025.

This is rarely my experience, and I see a lot of movies.

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Same here, I see movies all the time and I can't remember the last time I had a bad experience.

 

[Zeliard]

Some people do not give a single shit about this lmao

Since the pandemic started, I just wait for streaming every single time. If anything, it made me realize how much disdain I had for actually going to the theater. It's kind of a crapshoot whether you'll get a considerate audience or a bunch of people acting the same as they would in their living room, and I don't really care for it.

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Sure, and I feel that. There are plenty of movies I'd much prefer to either watch at home or later on in its theater stint with a much smaller audience. In fact I would say that encompasses the vast majority of movies for me. But some also clearly sing when watched with a bunch of others. I was pretty lukewarm on the new Spider-Man on streaming but probably would have enjoyed it a good bit more with a raucous (not annoyingly so) audience. It just seems made for that.

But just speaking outside of our personal experiences and interests, there is clearly still a market for all that. People want to have a shared experience. Covid put a massive dent into most people's willingness to brush shoulders with strangers (for obviously good reason) but theaters will probably recover and have already shown signs of that.

 

[Ryuelli]

Or you know, communal laughs, reactions, or even cheering for big fanboy events like Spiderman or Avengers.

Emotions are more powerful when experienced with a group of people. This is a fundamental truth of the human experience, something we've known since the literal dawn of storytelling.

Click to shrink...

Yeah, it's hilarious to hear people say that the communal experience isn't important and yet a random video of people reaction to moments in Spiderman in a theater can rack of millions of views.



Hearing and seeing other people enjoy stuff and sharing that experience with them is obviously something many still desire.

 

[ghostemoji]

I don't really enjoy watching movies at home too often. A good movie is a good movie, but I have a hard time sitting down for that long when I am at home. I really enjoy going to a movie theater and isolating from everything but the movie (and the audience).

I hope they stick around. I'm not at the movies more than 3-4 times a year, but I really enjoy those outings when they come.

 

[Freezasaurus]

But just speaking outside of our personal experiences and interests, there is clearly still a market for all that. People want to have a shared experience. Covid put a massive dent into most people's willingness to brush shoulders with strangers (for obviously good reason) but theaters will probably recover and have already shown signs of that.

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oh, I never said otherwise. I know there will always be a market for that kind of thing which I why I never expect theaters to completely disappear. But if anything the pandemic made studios aware of the very real demand for timely streaming releases. The industry has changed in a very permanent way due to a combination of factors, COVID probably chief among them. For me, the theater experience is fine, but inconsistent. As it relies on the behavior of others to make it enjoyable, or even tolerable. And that's largely why I just prefer to watch things at home, where I have more control over the viewing situation.

 

[Tambini]

honestly it feels like Batman came out like 2 weeks ago to me, and here it is on streaming already. I'm fine with waiting 45 days for sure. Not sure what would get me to go back to the cinema, I kinda hate the experience a lot of the time. MAYBE Avatar 2 if it looks good cus I don't have an amazing home setup

 

[inner-G]

Not sure what would get me to go back to the cinema

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They will try to make the floors so sticky that viewers can't leave